Pavol Povala

I left academia in 2016. This is a personal website collecting my academic and policy work. Best way to contact me is via email: firstname.lastname at


Published papers

  1. Information in the term structure of yield curve volatility, with A. Cieslak, Journal of Finance, 71, June 2016, p. 1393-1436.
  2. Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds, with A. Cieslak, Review of Financial Studies, 28, October 2015, p. 2859-2901.

Working papers

  1. Nominal term spread, real rate and consumption growth (2014), with A. Cieslak
  2. Risk premiums in Slovak government bonds (2016), with Ľ. Ódor

Conference discussions

  1. Monetary Policy Disagreement by Rodrigo Guimaraes and Paul Whelan, Term Structure Workshop at Bundesbank, October 2016, Frankfurt
  2. Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model by Peter Feldhuetter, Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, and Philipp Illeditsch, EFA 2015, Vienna, (slides)
  3. Interest rate spillovers during quantitative easing by Marcello Pericoli, Workshop on Advances in Fixed Income Modelling 2014, Madrid
  4. The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions by Kitsul and Wright, EFA 2012, Copenhagen, (slides)
  5. Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns: Identification Through Impossible Trinity by Ozdagli and Yu, EFA 2012, Copenhagen, (slides)
  6. Term Structure of Credit Default Swap Spreads and Cross-Section of Stock Returns by Han and Zhou, EFA 2011, Stockholm, (slides)
  7. A Multi-Country Term Structure Model with Unspanned Risks by Bauer and Diez de los Rios, Workshop on Advances in Fixed Income Modeling 2011, Madrid
  8. Transaction Costs, Trading Volume, and the Liquidity Premium by Muhle-Karbe, Gerhold, Guasoni and Schachermeyer, FinRisk Research Day 2011, Gerzensee, (slides)
  9. Exploring the Performance of Government Debt Issuance by Eisl, Elendner and Pichler, European Winter Finance Summit 2010, (slides)


  1. Economic Summer School, Bratislava, July 2016
  2. Financial Markets, Birkbeck, Spring 2015
  3. Forecasting Economic and Financial Time Series, Birkbeck, Spring 2014 and 2015
  4. Monetary Economics, Birkbeck, Spring 2014
  5. Corporate Finance, Birkbeck, Summer and Autumn 2014
  6. Financial Econometrics, USI Lugano, 2010-2011

Policy work

  1. Government debt management (2015), Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic and Council for Budget Responsibility
  2. Zero-coupon yield curve for the Slovak government debt (2015), Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic and Council for Budget Responsibility