Juan Manuel Morales
Grupo de Ecología Cuantitativa
Universidad Nacional del Comahue
E-Mail: jm.morales at conicet.gov.ar
Curso: Modelos y Datos en Ecología (Máxima Verosimilitud y Bayes)
Curso Taller: Modelos Jerárquicos
B.S. 1992 Universidad Nacional de La Plata
M.S. 1999 North Carolina State University
Ph.D. 2004 University of Connecticut
Postdoc 2006 The Statistical Laboratory
Rpubs (mostly class notes in Castellano)
Publications:
Morales, J.M. and Morán López, T. (2022), Mechanistic models of seed dispersal by animals. Oikos, 2022:. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.08328
Torney, C.J., Morales, J.M. & Husmeier, D. (2021). A hierarchical machine learning framework for the analysis of large scale animal movement data. Mov Ecol 9, 6
Gurevitz, J. M., Antman, J. G., Laneri, K., & Morales, J. M. (2021). Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(6), e0009465.
Pizo M.A. , J.M. Morales, O. Ovaskainen, and T.A. Carlo (2021). Frugivory Specialization in Birds and Fruit Chemistry Structure Mutualistic Networks across the Neotropics. The American Naturalist 197:2, 236-249
Sasal, Y., Amico, G.C. and Morales, J.M. (2021), Host spatial structure and disperser activity determine mistletoe infection patterns. Oikos, 130: 440-452.
Bedriñana-Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F.A. Johnson D., Zerbini A.N., Morales J.M., Mate B. & D. M. Palacios . (2021). Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model. Sci Rep 11, 2709 .
Kabalika, Z., Morrison, T.A., McGill, R.A., Munishi, L.K., Ekwem, D., Mahene, W.L., Lobora, A.L., Newton, J., Morales, J.M., Haydon, D.T. and Hopcraft, G.G., (2020). Tracking animal movements using biomarkers in tail hairs: a novel approach for animal geolocating from sulfur isoscapes. Movement ecology, 8(1), pp.1-10.
Morán‐López, T., Espíndola, W.D., Vizzachero, B.S., Fontanella, A., Salinas, L., Arana, C., Amico, G., Pizo, M.A., Carlo, T.A. and J.M. Morales (2020), Can network metrics predict vulnerability and species roles in bird‐dispersed plant communities? Not without behaviour. Ecology Letters 23: 348-358.
Ruiz-Suarez S, Leos-Barajas V, Alvarez-Castro I and J.M. Morales. (2020). Using approximate Bayesian inference for a “steps and turns” continuous-time random walk observed at regular time intervals. PeerJ 8:e8452.
Williams, HJ, Taylor, LA, Benhamou, S, et al. (2020) Optimizing the use of biologgers for movement ecology research. Journal of Animal Ecology.
di Virgilio A., Lambertucci S.A., and J. M. Morales, (2019). Sustainable grazing management in rangelands: Over a century searching for a silver bullet. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,
Morán‐López, T, González‐Castro, A, Morales, JM, Nogales, M. Behavioural complementarity among frugivorous birds and lizards can promote plant diversity in island ecosystems. Functional Ecology.
Hooten M.B., Johnson D.S., McClintock B.T., and J.M. Morales (2017). Animal Movement: Statistical models for telemetry data. CRC press.
Ovaskainen O., Leal Ramos D., Slade E.M., Merckx T., Tikhonov G., Pennanen J., Pizo M.A., Ribeiro M.C. and J.M. Morales (2019). Joint species movement modeling: how do traits influence movements? Ecology 100( 4):e02622
Hooten M.B., Scharf H.R., and J.M. Morales (2018). Running on empty: recharge dynamics from animal movement data. Ecology Letters 22: 377-389.
Morán‐López T., Carlo T.A., Amico G., and J. M. Morales (2018). Diet complementation as a frequency‐dependent mechanism conferring advantages to rare plants via dispersal. Functional Ecology 32: 2310-2320.
Bedriñana‐Romano L., Hucke‐Gaete R., Viddi F.A., Morales J.M., Williams R., Ashe E., Garcés‐Vargas J., Torres‐Florez J.P., and J. Ruiz. (2018). Integrating multiple data sources for assessing blue whale abundance and distribution in Chilean Northern Patagonia. Diversity and Distributions 24: 991-1004.
diVirgilio A., Morales J.M., Lambertucci S.A.. Shepard E.L.C & R. P. Wilson (2018). Multi-dimensional Precision Livestock Farming: a potential toolbox for sustainable rangeland management. PeerJ 6:e4867
Landesmann J.B. and J.M. Morales (2018). The importance of fire refugia in the recolonization of a fire-sensitive conifer in northern Patagonia. Plant Ecology 219: 455-466.
Tiribelli F., Kitzberger T. and J.M. Morales (2018). Changes in vegetation structure and fuel characteristics along post-fire succession promote alternative stable states and positive fire-vegetation feedbacks. Journal of Vegetation Science 29: 147-156.
Sáez A., Morales J.M., Morales C.L., Harder L.D. and M.A. Aizen (2018). The costs and benefits of pollinator dependence: empirically-based simulations predict raspberry fruit quality. Ecological Applications 28: 1215-1222.
Delgado, M.M., Miranda, M., Alvarez, S.J., Gurarie, E., Fagan, W.F., Penteriani, V., di Virgilio, A. & J.M. Morales (2018). The importance of individual variation in the dynamics of animal collective movements. Philosophical Transactions B 373.1746: 20170008.
Alarcón P.A., Morales J.M., Donázar J.A., Sánchez-Zapata J.A., Hiraldo F. and S.A. Lambertucci (2017). Sexual-size dimorphism modulates the trade-off between exploiting food and wind resources in a large avian scavenger. Scientific Reports 7:1 11461
Morales J.M., diVirgilio A., Delgado M., and O. Ovaskainen (2017). A General Approach to Model Movement in (Highly) Fragmented Patch Networks. JABES 22: 393-412.
Morán-López T., Carlo T.A. and J.M. Morales (2017). The role of frugivory in plant diversity maintenance- a simulation approach. Ecography 41: 24-31.
Balazote Oliver A., Amico G.C., Rivarola M.D. and J.M. Morales (2017). Population dynamics of Dromiciops gliroides (Microbiotheriidae) in an austral temperate forest. Journal of Mammalogy 98: 1179 - 1184.
Leos-Barajas V., Gangloff E.J., Adam T., Langrock R., van Beest F.M., Nabe-Nielsen J., and J.M. Morales. (2017). Multi-scale Modeling of Animal Movement and General Behavior Data Using Hidden Markov Models with Hierarchical Structures. JABES 22: 232-248.
Blackhall M., Raffaele E., Paritsis J., Tiribelli F., Morales J.M., Kitzberger T., Gowda J. and Thomas Veblen (2017). Effects of biological legacies and herbivory on fuels and flammability traits: A long-term experimental study of alternative stable states. Journal of Ecology 105: 1309-1322.
Amico G.C., Sasal Y., Vidal-Russell R., Aizen M.A, and J.M. Morales. (2017). Consequences of disperser behaviour for seedling establishment of a mistletoe species. Austral Ecology 42: 900-907.
Tiribelli F., Amico G.C., Sasal Y. and J.M. Morales. (2017). The effect of spatial context and plant characteristics on fruit removal. Acta Oecologica 82: 69-74.
Fenoglio M.S., Werenkraut V., Morales J.M. and A. Salvo. (2017). A hierarchical multi-scale analysis of the spatial relationship between parasitism and host density in urban habitats. Austral Ecology 42: 732-741.
Rodríguez-Pérez, J., García, D., Martínez, D. and Morales, J. M. (2017). Seed dispersal by changing frugivore assemblages: a mechanistic test of global change effects. Oikos, 126: 671–681.
Fenoglio M.S., Videla M. and J.M. Morales. (2017). Evaluating trap cropping strategies for insect pest control through simulation models. Journal of Pest Science, 90: 601-610.
Morán-López, T., Wiegand, T., Morales, J. M., Valladares, F. and Díaz, M. (2016). Predicting forest management effects on oak–rodent mutualisms. Oikos, 125: 1445–1457. doi: 10.1111/oik.02884
di Virgilio A, Morales J.M. (2016). Towards evenly distributed grazing patterns: Including social context in sheep management strategies. PeerJ 4:e2152.
Morán López T., Robledo Arnuncio J.J., Díaz Esteban M., Morales J.M., Lázaro-Nogal A., Lorenzo Z., and F. Valladares Ros. (2016). Determinants of functional connectivity of holm oak woodlands: fragment size and mouse foraging behavior. Forest Ecology and Management 368: 111–122.
Carlo T.A. and J.M. Morales. (2016). Generalist birds promote tropical forest regeneration and increase plant diversity via rare-biased seed dispersal. Ecology 97: 1819–1831.
Aráoz E. and J.M. Morales. (2015). Modeling unobserved variables in dendrochronological age structures improves inferences about population dynamics. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 45: 1720-1727.
Alarcón P.A.E., S.A. Lambertucci, J.A. Donázar, F. Hiraldo, J.A. Sánchez-Zapata, G. Blanco, and J.M. Morales. (2015). Movement decisions in natural catastrophes: how a flying scavenger deals with a volcanic eruption. Behavioral Ecology doi: 10.1093/beheco/arv124
Morales J.M., Mermoz M., Gowda J.H. and T. Kitzberger. (2015). A stochastic fire spread model for north Patagonia based on fire occurrence maps. Ecological Modelling 300: 73-80.
Barbar F., Wenkraut V., Morales J.M., Lambertucci S.A. (2015). Emerging Ecosystems Change the Spatial Distribution of Top Carnivores Even in Poorly Populated Areas. PLoS ONE 10(3): e0118851
Campbell H.A. et al. (2015). Finding our way: On the sharing and reuse of animal telemetry data in Australasia. Science of the Total Environment. 534: 79-84.
Matthiopoulos J., Fieberg J., Aarts G., Beyer H., Morales J.M. and D. Haydon. (2015). Establishing the link between habitat-selection and animal population dynamics. Ecological Monographs 85: 413-436.
Gimenez O. et al. (2014). Statistical ecology comes of age. Biology Letters 10: 20140698
di Virgilio A., Amico G.C. and J.M. Morales. (2014). Behavioral traits of the arboreal marsupial Dromiciops gliroides during Tristerix corymbosus fruiting season. Journal of Mammalogy 95: 1189-1198.
McClintock B.T., Johnson D.S., Hooten M.B., Ver Hoef J.M. and J.M. Morales. (2014). When to be discrete: the importance of time formulation in understanding animal movement. Movement Ecology 2:21
Hopcraft J.G., Morales J.M., Beyer H., Borner M., Mwangomo E., Sinclair A., Olff H. , and D. Haydon. (2014). Competition, predation and migration: Individual choice patterns of Serengeti migrants captured by hierarchical models. Ecological Monographs 84(3): 355-372
Merkle J.A., Fortin D. and J.M. Morales. (2014). A memory-based foraging tactic reveals an adaptive mechanism for restricted space use. Ecology Letters 17(8): 924–931
Ramos-Fernandez G. and J.M. Morales. (2014). Unraveling fission-fusion dynamics: how subgroup properties and dyadic interactions influence individual decisions. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology. 68(8): 1225-1235
Abramson G., Kuperman M.N., Morales J.M. and J.C. Miller. (2014). Space use by foragers consuming renewable resources. European Physical Journal 87-100.
Delgado M.M., Penteriani V., Morales J.M., Gurarie E. and O. Ovaskainen.(2014). Statistical Framework for Inferring the Influence of Conspecifics on Movement Behaviour. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5: 183-189
Morales J.M., García D., Martínez D., Rodriguez-Pérez J. and J.M. Herrera. (2013). Frugivore Behavioural Details Matter for Seed Dispersal: a Multi-Species Model for Cantabrian Thrushes and Trees. PLoS One 8(6): e65216 [link]
Beyer H.L., Morales J.M., Murray D.L. and Fortin M.-J. Estimating behavioural states from movement paths using Bayesian state-space models: a proof of concept (2013). Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4: 433-441.
Carlo T.A., García D., Martínez D., Gleditsch J.M. and J.M. Morales. (2013). Where do Seeds go when they go Far? Distance and Directionality of Avian Seed Dispersal in Heterogeneous Landscapes. Ecology 94: 301-307 [link]
Sasal Y. and J.M. Morales. (2013). Linking frugivore behavior to plant population dynamics. Oikos 122: 95–103 [link]
Langrock R., King R., Matthiopoulos J., Thomas L., Fortin D. and J.M. Morales. (2012). Flexible and practical modeling of animal telemetry data: hidden Markov models and extensions. Ecology 93: 2336:2342 [link]
McClintock B.T., King R., Thomas L., Matthiopoulos J., McConnell B.J., and J.M. Morales. (2012). A general modeling framework for animal movement and migration using multi-state random walks. Ecological Monographs 82: 335-349 [link]
Morales J.M., Rivarola M.D., Amico G.C., and T.A. Carlo. (2012). Neighborhood effects on seed dispersal by frugivores: testing theory with a mistletoe-marsupial system in Patagonia. Ecology 93: 741-748 [link].
García D., Martínez D., Herrera J.M. and J.M. Morales. (2013). Functional heterogeneity in a plant–frugivore assemblage enhances seed dispersal resilience to habitat loss. Ecography [link]
Kitzberger, T., E. Aráoz, J.H. Gowda, M. Mermoz & J.M. Morales. (2012). Decreases in fire spread probability with forest age promotes alternative community states, reduced resilience to climate variability and large fire regime shifts. Ecosystems 15: 97-112 [link]
Morales J.M. (2011). The Metapopulation that was not? Animal Conservation [link]
Herrera J.M., Morales J.M. and García D. (2011). Differential effects of fruit availability and habitat cover for frugivore-mediated seed dispersal in an heterogeneous landscape. Journal of Ecology [link]
Garibaldi, L.A., et al. (2011). Stability of pollination services decreases with isolation from natural areas despite honey bee visits. Ecology Letters [link]
Herrera, J.M., García, D. and Morales J.M. (2011). Matrix effects on plant-frugivore and plant-predator interactions in forest fragments. Landscape Ecology 26: 125-135
Morales J.M., Moorcroft P.R., Matthiopoulos J., Frair J.L., Kie J.K., Powell R.A. Merrill E.H., and D. T. Haydon. (2010). Building the Bridge between Animal Movements and Population Dynamics. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365:2289-2301[pdf]
Smouse, P.E., Focardi, S., Moorcroft, P.R., Kie, J.G., Forester, J.D., and Morales, J.M. (2010). Stochastic modelling of animal movement. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365:2201-2211
Beyer H.L., Haydon D.T. Morales J.M., Frair J.L., Hebblewhite M., Mitchell M. and J. Matthiopoulos. Habitat preference: understanding use versus availability designs. (2010). Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365:2245-2254
Dalziel B.D., Morales J.M. and J.M. Fryxell (2010) Fitting dynamic models to animal movement data: the importance of probes for model selection. American Naturalist 175: 762-764. [pdf]
Barton K.A., Phillips B.E., Morales J.M. and J. M. J. Travis (2009) The evolution of an 'intelligent' dispersal strategy: biased, correlated random walks on patchy landscapes. Oikos 118: 309-319.
Lambertucci S.A, Speziale K.L., Rogers T.,and J.M. Morales (2009). How do roads affect the habitat use of an assemblage of scavenging raptors? Biodiversity and Conservation18: 2063-2074.
Morales J.M., and D.P. Vazquez (2008) The effect of space in plant-animal mutualistic networks: insights from a simulation study. Oikos 117: 1362-1370. [pdf]
Aizen MA, Morales CL, Morales JM (2008) Invasive Mutualists Erode Native Pollination Webs. PLoS Biol 6(2): e31 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060031
Haydon D.T., Morales J.M., Yott A., Jenkins D., Rosatte R., and J.M. Fryxell (2008) Socially-informed random walks: Incorporating group dynamics into models of population spread and growth. Proc. R. Soc. B. 275: 1101-1109.
Carlo T.A., and J.M. Morales (2008) Inequalities in frugivory and seed dispersal: consequences of bird behaviour, neighbourhood density and landscape aggregation. Journal of Ecology 96: 609-618, [pdf]
Dalziel B.D., Morales J.M. and J.M. Fryxell (2008) Fitting probability distributions to animal movement trajectories: dynamic models linking distance, resources, and memory. American Naturalist 172: 248-258.
Fryxell J.M., Hazell M., Börger L., Dalziel B.D., Haydon D.T., Morales J.M., McIntosh T., and R. C. Rosatte (2008). Multiple movement modes by large herbivores at multiple spatiotemporal scales. PNAS 105: 19114-19119.
Frair J.L., Merrill E.H., Beyer H.L. and J.M. Morales (2008) Thresholds in landscape connectivity and mortality risks in response to growing road networks. Journal of Applied Ecology 45: 1504-1513.
Morales J.M., and T.A. Carlo (2006) The effects of plant distribution and frugivore density on the scale and shape of dispersal kernels. Ecology 87: 1489-1496. [pdf]. [Appendices].
Morales J.M., D. Fortin, J. Frair and E. Merrill (2005) Adaptive Models for Large Herbivore Movements in Heterogeneous Landscapes. Landscape Ecology 20(3): 301-316. [pdf]
Frair J.L., Merrill, E. H., Visscher, D. R., Fortin, D., Beyer, H. L & J.M. Morales (2005) Scales of movement by elk (Cervus elaphus) in response to heterogeneity in forage resources and predation risk. Landscape Ecology 20(3): 273-287.
Fortin D., Morales, J.M., and M.S. Boyce (2005) Elk winter foraging at fine scale in Yellowstone National Park. Oecologia 145(2): 334-342.
Morales J.M., D.T. Haydon, J. Frair, K.E. Holsinger and J.M. Fryxell (2004) Extracting More from Relocation Data: Building Movement Models as Mixtures of Random Walks. Ecology 85(9): 2436-2445. [pdf] -- Appendices [here], and Supplementary material [here].
Chacoff N.P., Morales, J.M. and M.P. Vaquera (2004) Efectos de la Fragmentación Sobre la Aborción y Depredación de Semillas en el Chaco Serrano. Biotropica, 36: 109–117. --
Aragón M.R. and J.M. Morales (2003) Species composition and invasion in NW Argentinian secondary forests: Effects of land use history, environment and landscape. Journal of Vegetation Science 14(2): 195-204. -- [pdf]
Morales J.M. (2002) Behavior at habitat boundaries can produce leptokurtic movement distributions. American Naturalist,160(4): 531-538. -- [pdf]
Morales J.M. and S.P. Ellner (2002) Scaling up movements in heterogeneous landscapes: the importance of behavior. Ecology, 83(8): 2240-2247. -- [pdf]
Morales J.M. (1999) Viability in a Pink Environment: why "white noise" models can be dangerous. Ecology Letters 2: 228-232. -- [pdf]
Adler P.B. and J.M. Morales (1999) Influence of environmental factors and sheep grazing on an Andean grassland. Journal of Range Management 52: 471-481.