This website lists predictions on the odds of drawing an Oregon controlled hunt tag.
Posted before 1/1/2015, as promised. If you should spot something odd, something that doesn't appear correct, please let me know.
Check out the "Another way to look at the odds" page (the menu is on the left). I've been working on an alternative way of listing the odds information, for some it might be more informative than my usual format.
I want to thank Austin J. for his help this summer. Austin provided a (simple and correct) solution for a difficult math problem, which allowed me to eliminate the approximation algorithm.
Here is a quote from a thread on Ifish talking about Oregon's controlled tag draw odds. It is a great point and is something all of us should consider...
"...then you also have to remember that anything that changes numbers or public perception of a hunt can totally change the accuracy of the prediction... As an example, I saw a tag last year for a unit where my wife has hunted that had a downward trend in applicants, and Ron's algorithm predicted that the trend would continue and all first-choice applicants would draw. I looked a little more and guessed that at some point people would realize that this tag was easy to draw and more people would apply. Sure enough, they did. Ron's math and the trend were right, but they can't account for the human element of changing perceptions of the hunt."