This website lists predictions on the odds of drawing an Oregon controlled hunt tag.
The 2014 controlled draw predictions are now available. Use the menu bar on the right to find the hunt you are interested in. If you should spot a discrepancy, please send me an email. A new feature this year, the harvest success data has been included.
Are you a summary report guru? Do you use the summary report to determine what the actual odds of drawing were last year? If so, I could use your help. I have added a new feature to the prediction algorithm, it generates a report of what the actual odds were from past drawings. There are still kinks to be worked out and I need help finding them. If you are going to calculate last year’s odds for your hunts, perhaps you could help me by comparing your findings with mine. If you are willing to help, send me an email and I’ll provide more details.
Here is a quote from a thread on Ifish talking about Oregon's controlled tag draw odds. It is a great point and is something all of us should consider...
"...then you also have to remember that anything that changes numbers or public perception of a hunt can totally change the accuracy of the prediction... As an example, I saw a tag last year for a unit where my wife has hunted that had a downward trend in applicants, and Ron's algorithm predicted that the trend would continue and all first-choice applicants would draw. I looked a little more and guessed that at some point people would realize that this tag was easy to draw and more people would apply. Sure enough, they did. Ron's math and the trend were right, but they can't account for the human element of changing perceptions of the hunt."