The 2018 predictions are now posted.  If you should see something odd, something in the numbers that you didn't expect, please let me know. 

The past few years I have received questions about the predictability of a specific (small) set of hunts.  Most controlled hunts have a behavior that can be modeled, a trend can be identified, tracked and a solid prediction can be made. 

However, there are a small set of controlled hunts in Oregon where the draw odds jump around.  Normal modeling methods can't catch up which makes it difficult to find a solid prediction.  This year I've spent some time studying these hunts and now have some insight as to why this happens. 

I will have a write up within the next few weeks, so please check back, it should be worth the read and helpful if you are applying for one of these unique, “pinball” hunts.

-Ron

Here is a quote from a thread on Ifish talking about Oregon's controlled tag draw odds.  It is a great point and is something all of us should consider...  
 
"...then you also have to remember that anything that changes numbers or public perception of a hunt can totally change the accuracy of the prediction... As an example, I saw a tag last year for a unit where my wife has hunted that had a downward trend in applicants, and Ron's algorithm predicted that the trend would continue and all first-choice applicants would draw. I looked a little more and guessed that at some point people would realize that this tag was easy to draw and more people would apply. Sure enough, they did. Ron's math and the trend were right, but they can't account for the human element of changing perceptions of the hunt."