This website lists predictions on the odds of drawing an Oregon controlled hunt tag. 

IMPORTANT: As of 4/18/2017, the ODFW has modified the number of allocated tags for certain hunts.  The change is due to winter kill.  The table below lists the hunts that were affected and the percentage of tag reduction.  If you have previously visited this site and have applied or plan to apply for one these hunts, please reexamine the odds listed here.  The odds I list have been updated to reflect the tag allocation change, in some cases the odds have changed dramatically.  If you have already applied, you can change your application anytime up to the application deadline.


100 Series Hunts

400 Series Hunts

600 Series Hunts

151

Sumpter

-50%

451b

South Sumpter

-52%

651T

Baker No.1 Youth

-50%

152A

Starkey

-35%

463

Keating

-50%

651A

Sumpter-y Ag

-100%

153

Catherine Cr

-35%

464

Lookout Mtn

-53%

663A

Keating Ag

-100%

154A

E. Mt. Emily

-35%

464R

Lookout Mtn Bow

-50%

 

 

 

162

Pine Creek

-50%

465

Beulah

-40%

 

 

 

163

Keating

-50%

467

Owyhee

-25%

 

 

 

164

Lookout Mtn

-50%

467R

Owyhee  Bow

-25%

 

 

 

165

Beulah

-40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

165A

SE Beulah

-40%

 

 

 

 

 

 

166

Malheur River

-35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

167

Owyhee

-25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

167A

NE Owyhee

-25%

 

 

 

 

 

 


-Ron

Here is a quote from a thread on Ifish talking about Oregon's controlled tag draw odds.  It is a great point and is something all of us should consider...  
 
"...then you also have to remember that anything that changes numbers or public perception of a hunt can totally change the accuracy of the prediction... As an example, I saw a tag last year for a unit where my wife has hunted that had a downward trend in applicants, and Ron's algorithm predicted that the trend would continue and all first-choice applicants would draw. I looked a little more and guessed that at some point people would realize that this tag was easy to draw and more people would apply. Sure enough, they did. Ron's math and the trend were right, but they can't account for the human element of changing perceptions of the hunt."