Publications

  • “The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn), January 2013. Forthcoming in Journal of Futures MarketsPDF.  
  • “Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, 126-162.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
  • “What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, Journal of Political Economy 120(1), 116-159.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
  • “One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity” (joint with Daniel Goldstein), 2012, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 44(2:3), 401-432.  PDF.
  • “Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?” 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(2), 1-32, lead article.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
  • “Strategic Complementarity among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), 920-940.  PDF.
  • “Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The American Economic Review 101(1), 341-370.  PDF.
  • “Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve,” 2010, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 87-101.  PDF.
  • “Inflation Inertia in Sticky Information Models” 2006, BE Contributions in Macroeconomics Vol. 6: No. 1, Article 1.  Link.

Working Papers

  • Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), August 2012. Second revision requested by American Economic ReviewPDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.
  • “Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity (joint with Ron Alquist), 2014PDF. Other versions: NBER, IMF and non-technical summary at Econbrowser.. Previously distributed under the title The Comovement of Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications.”
  • “The Predictive Content of Energy Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn and Michael LeBlanc), 2005, NBER WP No. 11033.  PDF.


Other Writing

  • “Does the Great Recession really mean the end of the Great Moderation?” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2010.  Available on VoxEUResponse by Brad DeLong.                    -
  • “When will the Fed raise interest rates?  Reconciling Taylor rule and financial market forecasts.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), March 2010.  Available on VoxEU
  • “What does the Fed's language about 2013 mean?  A rules-based interpretation.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2011.  Available on VoxEU.