Olivier Coibion

Publications

“Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Jane Ryngaert). This version: August 2018 PDF. Other versions: NBER. Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics (Link).

“No Firm Is An Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Expectations” (with Philippe Andrade, Erwan Gautier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko), This version: August 2020. PDF. Accepted by Journal of Monetary Economics (Carnegie-Rochester special issue).

“Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas), This version: July 2017. PDF. Web Appendix. Other versions: NBER. Summaries and discussions available at: NBER Digest. Forthcoming in AEJ Macroeconomics.

“Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar and Mathieu Pedemonte), 2020. Journal of International Economics 124. PDF. Other versions: NBER. Summaries and discussions available at: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Brookings, CentralBanking.com.

“Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele), 2020. Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 165-219. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.

“Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon), This version: May 2019. PDF. Other versions: NBER, IZA, Richmond Fed. Summaries and discussions available at VoxEU, Washington Post, CentralBanking.com, CreditCardBlog. Forthcoming in Journal of European Economics Association.

“Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity” (joint with Ron Alquist and Saroj Bhattarai), 2019. Journal of Monetary Economics, 112(June), 41-56. PDF. Published version: JME. Other versions: NBER, IMF and non-technical summary at Econbrowser. Previously distributed under the title “The Comovement of Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications.”

“Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate), 2019. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, 465-469. PDF.

“The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate), 2018. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018(Fall), 343-434. PDF. Other versions: NBER, CBPP (with response from Olivier Blanchard). Summaries and discussions available at: VoxEU, FT, Equitable Growth, Bank of England, CBPP's Jared Bernstein, ECB.

Response to “The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Comment” by Gagnon, López-Salido and Sockin with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gee Hee Hong, PDF, American Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324.

“How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar), 2018. American Economic Review 108(9), 2671-2713. Draft and Appendix. Other versions: NBER.

“Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Lorenz Kueng, and John Silvia), 2017. PDF. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 88 (June), 70-89. Other versions: IZA, NBER, and non-technical summary on Econbrowser, VoxEU, CBS, Marginal Revolution, Handelsblatt, Economist's View, CentralBanking.com, The Economist, The Economist II, ECB, ECB II, Slate, Speech by Jim Bullard, Paul Krugman, Financial Times, BIS, Bank of England, Bloomberg. Code and data are here.

“The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Rupal Kamdar), 2018. Journal of Economic Literature 56(4), 1447-1491. PDF. Other versions: NBER.

“Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation” (with Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland), 2016. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 8, 497-520. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.

“Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence From Firms in New Zealand” (with Hassan Afrouzi, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar). PDF. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2015(Fall), 151-225. Other versions: NBER. Summaries and discussions available at Brookings, VoxEU, Financial Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, New Zealand Herald.

“Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. American Economic Review 105(8), 2644-2678. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.

“Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223, 6-21. PDF.

“The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular, and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gee Hee Hong), 2015. American Economic Review 105(3), 993-1029. PDF. Other versions: NBER, IMF, and non-technical summary on Econbrowser. Reply to Gagnon et al.

“Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. PDF. AEJ: Macroeconomics 7(1), 197-232. Summaries available at Econbrowser, Econbrowser (2), Marginal Revolution, Reuters, The Globe and Mail, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Bank of Canada, ECB, Janet Yellen, ECB(2), Austrian Central Bank.

“Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas), September 2013. PDF. Prepared for Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2013 Conference. Summaries available at Brookings, Washington Post, Slate, BusinessWeek, Business Insider, AEI, Al-Jazeera, The Economist, Marginal Revolution.

“The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn), 2014. Journal of Futures Markets 34(7), 607-636. PDF .

“The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets in Light of the ZLB?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland), 2012, Review of Economic Studies 79, 1371-1406. PDF. Other versions: NBER, non-technical summary on Econbrowser, and invited contribution to The Economist's Economist Debates.

“Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, 126-162. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.

“What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, Journal of Political Economy 120(1), 116-159. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.

“One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity” (joint with Daniel Goldstein), 2012, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 44(2:3), 401-432. PDF.

“Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?” 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(2), 1-32, lead article. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.

“Strategic Complementarity among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), 920-940. PDF.

“Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The American Economic Review 101(1), 341-370. PDF.

“Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve,” 2010, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 87-101. PDF.

“Equilibrium Demand Elasticities Across Quality Segments: The Role of Entry” (with Liran Einav and Juan Carlos Hallak), 2007, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(1), 13-30. PDF and technical addendum.

“Inflation Inertia in Sticky Information Models” 2006, BE Contributions in Macroeconomics Vol. 6: No. 1, Article 1. Link.

Working Papers

"Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). This version: February 2021. PDF.

“Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: October 2020. PDF.

“Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Edward Knotek, and Raphael Schoenle), This version: September 2020. PDF. Other versions: CEPR, NBER, Cleveland Fed Working Papers.

“Communication and the Beliefs of Agents” (with Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko), This version: August 2020. PDF. (Jackson Hole version).

“How Did U.S. Households Use their Stimulus Payments?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: August 2020. PDF.

“Does Policy Communication during Covid Work?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: June 2020. PDF.

“The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: May 2020. PDF.

“Labor Markets during the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: April 2020. PDF.

“Forward Guidance and Household Expectations” (with Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber), This version: February 2020. PDF.

“How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial” (with Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Maarten van Rooij), This version: July 2019. PDF.

“Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). This version: January 2021 PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU. Revised and resubmitted to Journal of Political Economy.

“The Predictive Content of Energy Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn and Michael LeBlanc), 2005, NBER WP No. 11033. PDF.

Other Writing

“Does the Great Recession really mean the end of the Great Moderation?” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2010. Available on VoxEU. Response by Brad DeLong. -

“When will the Fed raise interest rates? Reconciling Taylor rule and financial market forecasts.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), March 2010. Available on VoxEU.

“What does the Fed's language about 2013 mean? A rules-based interpretation.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2011. Available on VoxEU.

“Comments on Dovern, Fritsche, Loungani and Tamirisa (forthcoming)” forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting, January 2014. Link to published version. Working paper.

Schedule for Macro Writing Workshop

Fall 2020

2018 Texas Monetary Conference

Program

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