• “Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Jane Ryngaert). This version: August 2018 PDF. Other versions: NBER. Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics (Link).
  • “No Firm Is An Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Expectations” (with Philippe AndradeErwan Gautier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko), This version: August 2020. PDF. Accepted by Journal of Monetary Economics (Carnegie-Rochester special issue).
    • “Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele), 2020. Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 165-219. PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU
    • “Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity (joint with Ron Alquist and Saroj Bhattarai), 2019. Journal of Monetary Economics, 112(June), 41-56. PDF. Published version: JME. Other versions: NBERIMF and non-technical summary at Econbrowser. Previously distributed under the title The Comovement of Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications.” 
    • “Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate), 2019. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, 465-469. PDF
    • Response to “The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Comment” by Gagnon, López-Salido and Sockin with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gee Hee HongPDF, American Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324.   
    • “The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Rupal Kamdar), 2018. Journal of Economic Literature 56(4), 1447-1491. PDF.  Other versions: NBER. 
    • “Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation” (with Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland), 2016. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 8, 497-520PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.
    • “Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. American Economic Review 105(8), 2644-2678.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU.  
    • “Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring? (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223, 6-21. PDF
    • “The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn), 2014. Journal of Futures Markets 34(7), 607-636.  PDF.  
    • “Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, 126-162.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
    • “What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, Journal of Political Economy 120(1), 116-159.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
    • “One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity” (joint with Daniel Goldstein), 2012, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 44(2:3), 401-432.  PDF.
    • “Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?” 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(2), 1-32, lead article.  PDF.  Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary on VoxEU.
    • “Strategic Complementarity among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), 920-940.  PDF.
    • “Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The American Economic Review 101(1), 341-370.  PDF.
    • “Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve,” 2010, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 87-101.  PDF.
    • “Inflation Inertia in Sticky Information Models” 2006, BE Contributions in Macroeconomics Vol. 6: No. 1, Article 1.  Link.

    Working Papers
    • "Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). This version: February 2021. PDF.
    • “The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: May 2020. PDF.
    • “Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). This version: January 2021 PDF. Other versions: NBER and non-technical summary at VoxEU. Revised and resubmitted to Journal of Political Economy.
    • “The Predictive Content of Energy Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn and Michael LeBlanc), 2005, NBER WP No. 11033.  PDF.

    Other Writing
    • “Does the Great Recession really mean the end of the Great Moderation?” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2010.  Available on VoxEUResponse by Brad DeLong.                    -
    • “When will the Fed raise interest rates?  Reconciling Taylor rule and financial market forecasts.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), March 2010.  Available on VoxEU
    • “What does the Fed's language about 2013 mean?  A rules-based interpretation.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2011.  Available on VoxEU.

    Schedule for Macro Writing Workshop

    2018 Texas Monetary Conference