Overview

Our site, run by ABM van Helsdingen, makes forecasts for New Zealand parliamentary elections and some other elections around the world. We use all the polls that have released to give a bigger-picture view of where the parties are standing, how the electorates might go and the prospects of various coalition scenarios. 

The last election was held on 23 September 2017, and the next will be held no later than November 2020. 

SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS

Close between National and Labour, Greens and NZF at risk of not making threshold
 Party  Leader(s)  Projected Vote  2017 Vote  Projected Seats  2017 Seats
 
 Simon Bridges  44.6%  44.4%  58  56
 
 Jacinda Ardern  42.4%  36.9%  55  46
 
 Winston Peters  5.4%  7.2%  7  9
 
 James Shaw and Marama Davidson  6.4%  6.3%  8  8
 
  (vacant) and (vacant  0.9%  1.2%  0  0
 
 (vacant)  0.3%  2.4%  0  0
 
 David Seymour  0.3%  0.5%  1  1
 
 Leighton Baker  0.1%  0.2%  0  0
 
 Hone Harawira 0.0%  0.1%  0

PARTY VOTE

These graphs show our projections for each party since November 2017

Major Parties


Minor Parties


Next Government

 National-led Government   49%
 Labour-led Government   51%
 Tie  <1%

Note that this graph starts on 1 January 2018

Next Government



PARLIAMENT PIE CHARTS

Most Likely 2020 Parliament



2017 Parliament


COALITION SCENARIOS

Broad Categories

We have 9 broad possible post-election outcomes for which we predict the probability of:

1. National majority
2. National needs ACT
3. National and ACT get exactly half: someone has to support them to give a majority. 
4. NZF kingmaker or National-Greens coalition
5. Another party is kingmaker, or else a complicated situation where neither left or right has a majority but no one single party is kingmaker. 
6. Tie between National and Labour, with no other parties to form coalitions with. 
7. Labour and Greens get exactly half. Either NZF or the Maori party supports Labour, or else the Greens have to support National. 
8. Labour needs Greens
9. Labour majority

Coalition Probabilities


Specific Outcomes
Currently only 6 parties have any chance of getting seats in parliament: National, Labour, Greens, NZF, ACT and the Maori Party. This theoretically gives 63 possible coalition combinations, but after eliminating the unfeasible ones there are just 15. The probability of each occurring is given below, along with some other statistics. Our model takes into consideration that a party or grouping with a small majority may wish to expand their majority by adding another party to the coalition. Therefore, the chance of Labour (or National) ruling alone is less than the probability of them getting a majority of seats in Parliament. See the Methodology page for more details about our method. 
 Coalition  Probability    Situation  Probability
 National  24.4%    Labour is involved  51.0%
 Labour  20.4%    National is involved  48.6%
 Labour-Greens  17.5%    NZF is involved  25.2%
 National-NZF  10.4%    Greens are involved  23.8%
 National-ACT  9.2%    ACT is involved  11.3%
 Labour-NZF  8.6%    Maori Party is involved  1.2%
 Labour-Greens-NZF  4.1%      
 National-NZF-ACT  1.8%    The current government continues unchanged for a second term  4.1%
 National-Greens  1.6%    At least one government party remains in government.  65.1%
 National-Maori  0.5%      
 Labour-Greens-Maori  0.3%      
 National-ACT-Maori  0.3%      
 National-Greens-NZF  0.3%      
 Labour-Maori  0.1%      
 National-Greens-Maori  <0.1%      
 TIE  0.4%      


SIMULATIONS OF NUMBER OF SEATS WON
These graphs show how likely it is for a particular party to win a certain number of seats. This gives a good representation of the uncertainty in our predictions, especially this far out from an election. 

National Projected Seats Won



Labour Projected Seats Won


Green Projected Seats Won




NZF Projected Seats Won



Maori Party Projected Seats Won


We cannot yet do this for ACT and TOP. The chance of Mana or the Conservatives winning seats is at present virtually zero so no graph is produced for them. 

© ABM van Helsdingen, 2017-2018