Threats to NZ‎ > ‎

Regional War

The outbreak of a regional war is a threat to New Zealand indirectly. To understand the probabilities of regional war it is necessary to examine the balance of deterrence between the various militaries in the region.

 Nation Air Superiority Jets Destroyers Frigates  Submarines Landing ships

Fast Missile
Boats

ASW

Sigint 
planes

 Heavy  Tanks  COIN aircraft  Anti-tank helicopters Armoured  vehicles Artillery pieces   Soldiers
 New Zealand  0  2  0  1  0  6 P-3 Orions  0  0  8 SH-2G  105 LAV III  12  4,500
 Australia

 69 F-18 to be replaced by F-35

24 Super Hornet

12 EA-18 Electronic warfare Hornets
(on order)

 11  6  2  0

 15 P3 Orions to be replaced with P-8 Poesidon


6 E7 Wedgetail

 59 M1 Abrams

 49 PC-21 trainers

33 Hawk jet trainers

 22 Europter Tiger attack helicopter  1740 mixed  200

 29,366 regulars

26,797 reserves

 Papua New Guinea  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  5,000
 Indonesia

 16 Su-27 and Su-30

16 F-16s with 12 more on order

8 F-16 trainers

6 F-5E

 6 + 2 under construction  2 + 3 under construction  4  21  5 CASA 295  120 Leopard 2

 15 Hawk jet trainers

7 Super Tucano +8 on order

15 KAI T-50 Golden Eagle

 0  1098 mixed  302  306,500
 Philippines  0  2 Cutters  0  1 + 2 on order  0  3 CASA 295  0  10 T-50 Golden Eagle  0  6  12

125,000 regulars 131,000 reserve

 Singapore

 40 F-15 Strike Eagles

60 F-16

27 F-5Es

 6  6  4  11

 4 G550 signals intelligence


5 Fokker50 Maritime Patrol

 196 Leopard 2SG  19 PC-21  17 AH-64 Apache  2,192 mixed  157 +198 in storage

 72,000

+ 350,000 conscripts

 Malaysia                        
 Vietnam                        
                         

In general Australia and Indonesian military doctrines follow their World War Two experience with the Imperial Japanese forces. Australia seeks to repel invasion, Indonesia absorb and destroy it.

The overall balance shows that:
  1. Australia's air superiority over Indonesia makes any direct attack on Australia impossible
  2. Australia can't invade Indonesia without being absorbed and destroyed
  3. The Philippines cannot stop China invading the Spratleys (which are not inhabited), nor could the Vietnamese do anything either
  4. There is a very significant risk of conflict in Irian Jaya, the Indonesian half or Papua
Conflict between the ill disciplined Papuan Army and the slightly better disciplined Indonesian TNI is quite possible. Stories of Indonesian atrocities and ethnic resettlement in Irian Jaya show that the resource rich territory is a potential flashpoint between Papuan independence movements, the TNI and Australia potentially motivated by mining and energy interests. The Indonesians will be most reluctant to see a repeat of their loss of East Timor.

New Zealand troops could be drawn into peace keeping in Papua but the TNI is most unlikely to allow foreign troops to enter Irian Jaya. It might suit Australian mining and energy interests to provoke a war with Indonesia to wrest control of Irian Jaya but there is no way this would be in the interests of New Zealand.


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