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posted Nov 3, 2013, 11:51 AM by Md Boker   [ updated Nov 3, 2013, 11:55 AM ]
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Now, with things all tied up and three races to go, Johnson is only a -140 favorite with Kenseth at +110 to win the Championship. Technically, Kenseth is actually leading in points because the first tie-breaker is season wins, of which Kenseth has seven and Johnson five. Tony Stewart proved in 2011 that the tie-breaker can be huge.


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When looking at the final three races of the Chase, starting with the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday, there looks to be some value with Kenseth because two of those three races are on 1.5-mile tracks. Kenseth has four wins on the nine 1.5-mile tracks this season while Johnson doesn't have any.

However, despite Johnson having only three top-5 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks this season, the LVH has posted Johnson as the 7-to-2 favorite to win on Sunday, with Kenseth the second choice at 4-to-1. Both have two career wins on the track. Over the past 20 Texas races, Kenseth has a 6.8 average finish while Johnson's is 9.1.

Johnson won this race last fall, but it's apparent that the No. 48 team hasn't completely figured out the new Gen-6 car on these types of tracks this season, resulting in zero wins. The same can be said for the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports cars on 1.5-mile tracks, while Joe Gibbs Racing has won six of the nine races.

We could assume that Johnson's team is getting better as he's had top-5 finishes on two of the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks (Chicago and Charlotte), but the only thing concrete and bankable is JGR with their six wins, four coming from Kenseth.

The one thing Johnson has going for him, not only this week at Texas, but also at Phoenix and Homestead, is that he's as cool as they come in these situations. Kenseth showed some moxie last week at Martinsville that surprised a lot of us, but in past Chases, we've only seen Kenseth fail. With Johnson, we've seen him win it all five times. The big difference from all five of his championship seasons and now is that he was the dominant force at 1.5-mile tracks.


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