Molin Zhong

Welcome to my webpage!


Federal Reserve Board, Division of Financial Stability, Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies Section


My site at the Federal Reserve Board

My CV (last updated May 2018)

The views expressed on this website are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.

Working Papers

Likelihood Evaluation of Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints (December 2017)

with Pablo Cuba-Borda (FRB), Luca Guerrieri (FRB), Matteo Iacoviello (FRB)

Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises (April 2017)

with Pablo GuerrĂ³n-Quintana (BC), SSRN version (July 2016), Coverage: No Hesitations blog


A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks (January 2018) (Accepted, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics)

Joint with Minchul Shin (UIUC), Appendix, Previous version (September 2016)

Measuring International Uncertainty: The Case of Korea (August 2017) (Economics Letters, Vol 162, Jan 2018)

Joint with Minchul Shin (UIUC), Boyuan Zhang (UIUC), Dong Jin Lee (Bank of Korea), Appendix, Korean uncertainty index 1991M10-2016M5

Does Realized Volatility Help Bond Yield Density Prediction? (August 2016) (International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 33, Issue 2, April - June 2017, pg. 373-389)

Joint with Minchul Shin (UIUC), FEDS 2015-115 version (September 2015)