Post date: Jul 20, 2011 8:33:48 PM
Originally published November 24, 2010.
Hey Auburn fans! How many times have you heard/seen this one on a message board or in a “sports journalist’s” article this week? “Auburn’s defense is atrocious; they are ranked 50th in total yards, 60th in scoring defense, and 98th in passing defense. Alabama is going to win the Iron Bowl.” Wow, that all sounds really bad right? You might have found yourself questioning the legitimacy of Auburn’s wins this season and the talent on their football team. Maybe Auburn has just been really lucky all year… absurdly, ridiculously, consistently, lucky. But then you think to yourself, “I know our defense isn’t awesome, but I swear I’ve seen worse.” I’m going to advise you to trust your intuition on this one, and the best part is, I’m going to provide you with some numbers to back it up.
First off, I’d like to begin with the statistic that no one ever seems to brings up... our run defense is ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 112 yards per game. I think it’s ridiculous for commentators to throw out negative judgments regarding our entire defense when, really, our defensive line (e.g. Nick Fairley – heard of him?) and linebackers are actually pretty good. But what I really want to focus on here are the rankings that I mentioned before, which basically every person in the entire United States of America is using to justify picking two-loss Alabama over undefeated Auburn.
The first statistic I want to discuss in detail is Auburn’s total defense rank of #50 (giving up 356 yards per game). For comparison, the #10 defense in the NCAA, Florida, is giving up 300 yards per game. Breaking that down, Florida is giving up, on average, 56 fewer yards/game than Auburn, or 5.6 fewer first downs/game, or 1.4 fewer first downs/quarter. Essentially, 56 yards is all that separates #50 Auburn’s defense from #10 Florida’s defense. 56 yards!! Alabama is ranked #7 in total defense and is giving up 293 yards/game or 63 yards less per game than Auburn. 63 yards, people.
Let’s move on to scoring defense. Auburn is ranked 60th in the NCAA, giving up, on average, 24.9 points/game. The #10 team in this category, undefeated Oregon, gives up an average of 17.2 points/game. This means that Auburn is giving up, on average, an extra 7.7 points, or basically an extra touchdown, per game compared to Oregon. The important question to consider here is, “Does that matter?” The goal of a football game, believe it or not, is to finish with more points than your opponent. All that the scoring defense statistic really tells you is how many points the offense needs to average in order to win most of their games. Can you guess whether or not Auburn’s offense averages more than 24.9 points per game? Yep, they do. In fact, they are ranked 5th in the NCAA, averaging 42.8 points per game, which means they win by, on average, 17.9 points per game. Now obviously, these numbers are slightly skewed when you consider the fact that some of the games were blow outs, but the point is, Auburn hasn’t had any trouble scoring more points than their opponents this season, which is why they have won EVERY SINGLE GAME. For comparison, Alabama is ranked 3rd in points surrendered per game with 12.8. They are ranked 20th in points scored per game with 35.3 for a difference of 22.5 points per game (despite having two losses), which I think is pretty comparable to the 17.9 difference Auburn has.
Finally, I’d like to consider the bane of Auburn’s defense’s existence, their pass defense. Auburn is ranked 98th in pass defense, surrendering 244 yards per game. The #10 team in this category, Boise State (oh how I loathe thee), gives up an average of 166 yards per game to the pass. That comes to a difference of 78 yards per game, or 19.5 yards per quarter, or about two first downs a quarter. 78 yards is a decent amount. However, it is important to note that this statistic is neither total yards given up, nor points surrendered. The fact is, 244 yards by itself would not allow a team to beat Auburn in a football game. If Auburn’s opponents hope to win, they would need to either complement those 244 passing yards with a running game (which would be hard, as I mentioned before), or they would need to go well over 244 yards in passing.
Another important aspect to consider when looking at pass defense statistics is that passing the ball is A LOT riskier than running the ball. I’m not even necessarily talking about interceptions (although those are important), but just the fact that the there is a pretty high chance of an incompletion on any given passing play, which makes throwing the ball a pretty significant gamble (especially compared to running the ball). Take for example, the Arkansas game, where Auburn’s defense made backup quarterback Tyler Wilson look like a Super Bowl MVP. In that game, Wilson went 25/34 for 332 yards and 13.3 yards per completion. While those numbers are awesome, he was still only successful in 73.5% of his attempts. Run plays don’t have to worry about whether or not the play will be executed, because they are essentially “completed” 100% of the time (excluding fumbles, I’m looking at you Mario). If Wilson would have completed 100% of his passes in that game (as if he was running, rather than passing), he would have had an extra 119.7 yards (based on his average yards per completion). That’s a lot, and, because of that, if I had to choose one aspect of my defense to be lacking in, it would definitely be the PASS DEFENSE. Again, for comparison’s sake, Alabama is giving up 178 yards per game in their pass defense (for a difference of 66 yards) and ranked #16.
So what does this have to do with the state of science and math education in the USA? The inability of media journalists and fans on message boards to correctly use statistics is a direct reflection of their ability to comprehend and interpret data, which are skills that you learn in science and math. When a journalist has a knee-jerk reaction to a ranking, like #60, and makes sweeping claims and predictions based on that single number, without any context whatsoever, he comes across as both foolish and ignorant. It seems like we're always hearing about other countries passing by America in science and math education rankings, and I personally think this a reflection of the quality of our education system and not the quality of our students. The public obviously has an interest in statistics (since they misuse them so frequently), so why don’t we capitalize on their interest in certain topics and teach them to think critically and logically about things they enjoy? Think about it, how ridiculously popular would a sports statistics class be? The students would be enthusiastic about the topic, and they would be learning how to critically interpret raw data to make predictions and draw conclusions... skills that are valuable not only for many jobs and careers, but in day-to-day life.
Personally, I feel that the Iron Bowl is Auburn’s game to lose. If our offense can play their typical kind of game, and our defense can stop Alabama even just a couple of times, I really believe it’s a lock. Unfortunately, football games have an extremely small sample size (1), which is why, as they say, “anything can happen”. While I am not surprised by the lack of respect Auburn is being given by the media and the general public (I actually prefer it), I am surprised by the overwhelming ignorance, in regards to the proper use of statistics, of supposed “experts” in college football analysis. I hope you found some aspects of this rant enlightening, now go be a good citizen and educate the next Auburn-hater who attacks you with some of these statistics. War Eagle and Beat Bama!