Post date: Jul 20, 2011 8:21:43 PM
Originally published October 24, 2010.
Kirk Herbstreit made a comment this week that, having traveled all over the country and watched a number of top teams, he has no doubt in his mind that Boise State should be among the top two teams in the nation. Is his opinion justified? You probably know my answer, but I’m going to try and logically make my case here.
So who, exactly, has Boise State beaten this year to make their season so impressive to Herbstreit and others on the Boise State bandwagon? Let’s take a look.
Virginia Tech (6-2, 4-0 ACC) – Virgina Tech is 6-2 right now. 6-2? That sounds pretty good right? Well... maybe not.
Virginia Tech has beaten:
East Carolina (5-2, 4-0 the mighty C-USA)
Boston College (2-5, 0-4 ACC)
North Carolina State (5-2, 2-1 ACC)
Central Michigan (2-6, 1-4 the powerhouse MAC)
Wake Forest (2-5, 1-3 ACC)
Duke (1-6, 0-4 ACC)
And lost to:
James Madison (who?) (4-3, 1-3 CAA – what?)
All of a sudden, you're probably wondering how Virginia Tech could NOT have six wins with that kind of schedule. Having considered Virginia Tech's schedule, Boise State’s victory by just 3 points seems less like a statement and more like a question mark.
Wyoming (2-6, 0-4 in the MWC) – ‘nuff said.
Oregon State (3-3, 2-1 in the Pac-10) – One might argue that this is at least a marginally meaningful win for Boise State. I say not.
Oregon State has beaten:
Louisville (4-3, 1-1 Big East) – by 7
Arizona State (3-4, 1-3 Pac-10) – by 3
Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac-10) – by 2
In addition to losing to Boise State, the Beavers have lost to:
TCU (8-0, 4-0 MWC) – by 11, a team who, for whatever reason, doesn’t get the same amount of hype as Boise State
Washington (3-4, 2-2 Pac-10) by 1 in OT.
Oregon State appears to be a rather inconsistent football team and none of their wins are particularly impressive. As such, Boise State's victory over the Beavers, in my opinion, should carry a little less weight.
New Mexico State (1-6, 0-3 in the WAC) – Again, ‘nuff said.
Toledo (5-3, 4-0 MAC) – 5-3 sounds pretty good as well, right? Oh wait, they’re in the MAC and have a loss to the above 2-6 Wyoming? Nevermind.
San Jose State (1-7, 0-3 WAC) – Wait, you're telling me Boise State has played three teams that have yet to achieve a win in their already weak conferences (MWC and WAC)? Seriously? Struggling Tennessee is the only team without a conference win in the SEC this year.
After reviewing Boise State’s schedule, I’m fairly confident that at least 10 out of 12 SEC teams (Vanderbilt and Tennessee as the odd teams out) would have a minimum of 4 wins with an identical schedule, and that at least six, maybe eight, of those teams could easily be undefeated as well (Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, and maybe Georgia and Florida). By Herbstreit’s logic, that means six teams in the SEC should probably have a chance at the national title. Of course, if he actually said that, I would probably agree with him. Further proof of the weakness of Boise State’s schedule is the fact that Boise State’s quarterback is regularly pulled out of games in the fourth quarter. Are you telling me Boise State is that disproportionately better than every team they face? Or are their opponents just that disproportionately worse? While I know fans of Boise State would, justifiably, think being left out of the national title again is unfair, fans of teams with schedules not overrun with cupcakes (e.g. Auburn, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Michigan State) would KNOW that Boise State playing in the title game is unfair. If Boise State ever wants to be taken seriously by average fans who are not susceptible to hype, they are going to have to either: (A) move to a better conference, (B) schedule an SEC team that is consistently decent every year (e.g. Alabama, Florida, Auburn, even if they aren’t particularly good in the year Boise State plays them, it’d likely offer some valuable means of comparison, which is not the case with Virginia Tech), or (C) convince the NCAA to switch to a playoff. I’m obviously for (C), but since that seems like it’s never going to happen, I think Boise State needs to move to a different conference, probably the Pac-10, and prove their worth there.