Deputy Chief, Regional Economic Outlook
Middle East and Central Asia Department
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
Short bio: I work as a deputy chief at the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook division, focusing on the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia economies and oil and gas sector issues. I am also the IMF mission chief for Qatar. Previously, I worked on the IMF's United States and Japan teams, and wrote chapters for the IMF's World Economic Outlook. I graduated with a Ph.D. in economics from the Johns Hopkins University.
- Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices (with Aasim M. Husain, Rabah Arezki, Peter Breuer, Vikram Haksar, Thomas Helbling, and Paulo A. Medas). IMF Staff Discussion Note 15/15.
- The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States (with Ben Hunt and Dirk Muir). IMF Working Paper 15/92.
- Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries (with Maria A. Albino-War, Svetlana Cerovic, Francesco Grigoli, Juan Flores, Javier Kapsoli, Haonan Qu, Yahia Said, Bahrom Shukurov, and SeokHyun Yoon). IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/10.
- Macroeconomic Implications of the U.S. Energy Boom (with Ben Hunt, Gabriel Di Bella, Madelyn Estrada, Akito Matsumoto, and Dirk Muir). IMF Selected Issues Paper 13/237, pp. 19-35, 2013.
- Vehicles Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030 (with Dermot Gately and Joyce Dargay), The Energy Journal, Vol 28(4), pp. 163-190, 2007.
- The Boom in Nonfuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last? IMF's World Economic Outlook, September 2006.
- Will The Oil Market Continue to Be Tight? IMF's World Economic Outlook, April 2005
- Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects (with Christopher Carroll and Jirka Slacalek). IMF Working Paper No. 12/219, September 2012.
- International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth (with Christopher Carroll and Jirka Slacalek). Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2011, 93(4): 1135–1145.
- Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Advances), Vol. 7(1), Article 21, 2007. Previous version: Habits, Sentiment, and Predicted Income in the Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption. Data and programs.
- The Changing Dynamics of the Global Business Cycle (with Nikola Spatafora) IMF's World Economic Outlook, October 2007.
- Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends (with Marco Arnone, Bernard Laurens, and Jean-Francois Segalotto), IMF Staff Papers, 52(2), 2009.
- How Has Globalization Influenced Inflation? (with Thomas Helbling and Florence Jaumotte) IMF's World Economic Outlook, April 2006.
- Supply Shocks and The Persistence of Inflation Johns Hopkins University Working Paper 485, 2002.
- Why Are Japanese Wages So Sluggish? IMF Working Paper No. 09/97, May 2009.
- Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? IMF's Staff Position Note 2009/05.