Marianna Kudlyak

I am a macroeconomist with research interests in labor markets and consumer finance.


Education: Ph.D., University of Rochester

CV and Contact 
Google Scholar Citation profile  My profile on Ideas My profile on FRB Richmond website

Current Appointment: Economist at the FRB Richmond (on leave) and Visiting Scholar at the UC Berkeley.

Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

Upcoming seminar presentations/conferences: U Houston (2/22), SF FED (2/26), BLS (3/23), Census (3/24), St Louis FED (4/6-7), UT Austin (4/11-15), UC Santa Cruz (5/05), UC Davis (5/11), NBU (5/19-20).


Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index Link
(Reference: "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," by Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.  PDF Link Slides)

The decline of the unemployment rate after the 2007-09 recession has coincided with the increase in the number of individuals out of the labor force. These observations lead to the question: Post-2007, is there substantial labor market weakness beyond what is measured by the unemployment rate? The Non-Employment Index (NEI) is a weighted average of all the non-employed expressed as the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 years and older where the weight for each group is given by its transition rate to employment relative to the highest transition rate among all groups (the transition rate of the short-term unemployed). The weights are designed to account for persistent differences in labor market attachment among the non-employed. Current level of the unemployment rate is associated with the same level of the NEI, a more comprehensive measure of the labor market health, as the comparable level of the unemployment rate pre-2007 recession.

Media coverage:FRED St Louis FED Database, Politico, Econbrowser by James Hamilton, The Street

Working Papers


6. Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit, PDF

by Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, November 2015, Richmond FED WP No. 15-14

5. Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort, Abstract PDF Slides

by Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak
Presentations:Midwest Macro Meetings Fall 2015, University of Rochester (Nov 6-8, 2015), New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona (Sept 18-19, 2015,by coauthor), The 20th ENSAI Economics day "On Labor Markets Instability", Paris, France (June 29-30, 2015, by coauthor), Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal (June 1-2, 2015, by coauthor)

4. Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories, Abstract External Link

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, October 2014, Richmond FED WP No. 14-18

Presentations: Econometric Society World Congress (August 2015, Montreal, Canada), FRB Chicago (August 2015), SED (June 2015), SOLE (June 2015, by coauthor), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Dallas (May 2015), CADRE Workshop at Kansas City FED (May 2015), Elon University (April 2015), U Montreal (April 2015), Kentucky-FRB Cleveland 2015 Labor Market Workshop (February 2015), Stockman Conference at Rochester (October 2014), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Minneapolis (May 2014)
Media coverage:
: Econbrowser, Market Watch International

3. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data  Abstract  External Link

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, January 2014, NBER WP No. 19850.

Presentations: FRB Philadelphia Payments Center (Nov 3, 2015), Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Mannheim, Germany (24-27 Aug, 2015), FR Board (August 2015), BYU Red Rock Conference, Utah (September, 2014)* EEA-ESEM, Toulouse, France (August, 2014), International Banking, Economics and Finance Association, Western Economic Association*, Denver CO (2014), NBER SI EFG Group (2014), NBER SI Monetary Economics Group (2014), SED (June 2014), NY FED (May 2014), University of Cologne*, VCU (April 2014), Tinbergen Institute*, London Business School*, CREI*, Boston College*, Texas A&M University*, University of Houston/Rice*, FRB St. Louis (2013),  4th Ifo Conference on “Macroeconomics and Survey Data”, Munich, Germany (2013)*

Media coverage: Washington Post, The News Tribune UniBul Credit Card Blog, VoxEU


2. The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, Richmond FED WP No. 14-12

Presentations: SOLE (June 2015)*, SED (June 2014)*, 2013 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Conference (2013)*, CIREQ Labor Workshop in Montreal: Micro and Macro Perspectives on Unemployment, University of Notre Dame (2013)*, NBER SI, Shimer-Rogerson-Wright Group (2013)*, Kansas City FED*, System Applied Microeconomics Conference (2013)*, 3rd Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2012)*


Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13

(For Supplementary Appendix click here.)

Presentations: Society of Labor Economists Annual Meetings (2009), EEA Annual Meeting (2009).


(Note: Presentations marked by * are by a coauthor)


Refereed Academic Publications and Papers in R&R Stage

5. Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data PDF

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-03R, Revision requested by the Journal of Labor Economics

This paper was initially posted under the title "Sorting by Skill Over the Course of Job Search."

Presentations: 
U Toronto (2013), SED, Seoul, Korea (2013),  North American Summer Meeting, LA (2013), U Warwick (2013), SOLE, Boston (2013), ASSA, San Diego (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2012), UC Berkeley (2012)

4. The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected PDF

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Forthcoming at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

Presentations: ASSA, Boston (2015), SED (June 2014)*, New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payment Markets (October, 2013)*, ASU*

Media coverage:  WSJ, The Guardian, NBC News, Bankrate, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fox Business, UniBul Credit Card Blog, Global Association of Risk Professionals, The State, Chicago Tribune, Yahoo! News, Sun Herald, Morningstar, College Times, KGW-TV, Portland, OR, NBC Washington

The paper previously circulated under title "Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009"


3. The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor Link, Richmond FED WP, Nov 2007 version

by Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 68: 53-67.

Supplementary Materials

Presentations: Boston College (March 2014), ASSA, Denver CO (2011), Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (2009), Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May 2009), System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May 2009), New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April 2009), FRB Kansas City (2008), FRB Cleveland (2008), UC Santa Cruz (2008), University of Montreal (2008), Wilfrid Laurier University (2008), Kyiv School of Economics (2008).


2. Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model Link, Richmond FED WP.

by David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.  

Presentations: ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, PA (2014)*, Fall Midwest Macro Meeting (2013)*, Stockman Conference at Rochester (2012)*.

Media coverage: NED-DGE Blog


1. Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from U.S. States Link, Richmond FED WP.

by Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186. 


Publications in Federal Reserve Journals


Articles:


10. Online Job Search,Preliminary PDF

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Perspectives, FRB Chicago, forthcoming.


9. Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession,PDF

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M Sanchez. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2016 (lead article).


8. Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters, PDF

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, forthcoming.

7. What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath, Preliminary PDF

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, forthcoming.

6. Flows To and From "Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons" and the Labor Market Aggregates in the Aftermath of the 2007-09 Recession, Link PDF

Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.

Media coverage:Digital Journal, Economist's View


5. Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, PDF Link Slides

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.

4. A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation, PDF Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.

Media coverage: White House CEA Report

3. Housing Services Price Inflation, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 3Q 2012.


2. Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 4Q, 2011.


1. Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q, 2010.


Non-Refereed Short Articles:


14. Why Are Women Leaving the Labor Force?

Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, November 2015.

Media coverage:Quartz.


13. Aging and the Economy: the Japanese Experience

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, October 2015.

12. How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.
Media coverage:WSJ.

11. Youth Labor Force Participation Continues to Fall, but It Might Be for a Good Reason,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.


10. Is Involuntary Part-Time Employment Different after the Great Recession?,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.

Media coverage: WSJ Blogs


9. Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?,

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.

Data: Index Series for Economic Brief, Annual

Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market

Media coverage: WSJ, WashingtonExaminer.com, Reuters


8. Not Everyone Who Joins the Ranks of the Employed Was “Unemployed”,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.
Media coverage: St Louis Post-Dispatch

7. How Risky Are Young Borrowers,
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, December 2013.

6. A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate, 
Maria Canon
, Peter Debbaut, and Marianna Kudlyak, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2013.

Media coverage: Macromania


5. Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search,
Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2013.

4. The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and the Recovery
Marianna Kudlyak, and David Price,
Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2012.


3. The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)
Marianna Kudlyak, David Price, and Juan M. Sanchez, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, October 2010.

2. Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions: a Focus on the Age Composition of the Population
Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond , April 2010.


1. Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures
Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Sept 2009.




Work in Progress


Wages Over the Business Cycle

Marianna Kudlyak

Draft available upon request.


Measuring Government Consumption Multiplier from Household Retail Purchase Data

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari

Presentations: 6th Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2015)*

Slides available upon request.


Revisiting Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on the Behavior of Small and Large Firms  Preliminary PDF, Jan 2016  Slides, April 2010
Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M. Sanchez

Estimating the Trend in the Labor Force Participation Rate Slides, Dec 2013

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Presentations: FRB St. Louis (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2013)


On UI



Discussions


9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,
New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona, September 18-19, 2015.


8. "Aging and Deflation: Japanese Experience" by Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara,
Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.

7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,
System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.

6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,
Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.

5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,
2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.

4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,
Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.

3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,
Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.

2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,
New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.

1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,
Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.



Referee Service

American Economic Review,

Quarterly Journal of Economics,

Journal of Monetary Economics,

International Economic Review,

American Economic Journal: Macro,

Review of Economic Dynamics,

Labour Economics,

European Economic Review,

Economic Letters,

Journal of Legal Studies,

Journal of Labor Research,

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,

Journal of Comparative Economics,

Journal of Macroeconomics,

Journal of Banking and Finance,

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,

The Manchester School

Review of Economics and Statistics



Other Professional Activities

Visiting Scholar:

 CIREQ, Montreal, CANADA, April 2015

          FRB St. Louis, St. Louis, December 2013         

Conference session organizer:

Session “Unemployment Across Regions and Sectors” ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, January 2014.

Session “New Evidence from Online Job Search” ASSA Meetings, San Diego, January 2013 (organizer).

Session “Labor Market, Labor Decisions, and Production Cycles” ASSA Meetings, Denver, January 2011 (co-organizer).

Conference co-organizer: 

          Alan Stockman University of Rochester Alumni Conference, Rochester, October 2014

Federal Reserve System Applied Microeconomics Conference, Richmond, May 16-17 2012

 


Extracurricular Readings

Gender and education: Nature plus nurture, Economist, Mar 2015