I am a macroeconomist with research interests in labor markets and consumer finance.


Education: Ph.D., University of Rochester

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Employment: Economist, Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
 

Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, by Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.  PDF Link Slides
Abstract: In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment to employment. These observations on labor market transitions suggest that the standard unemployment rate and its extensions proposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are both too coarse and too narrow as measures of resource utilization in the labor market. These measures are too narrow since they exclude a large part of the population that is potentially employable, and they are too coarse since they assume the same labor force attachment for all nonemployed individuals. We construct a measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a Non-Employment Index (NEI), that is both comprehensive and accounts for differences in labor force attachment. Prior to 2007, the standard unemployment rate was highly correlated with our Non-Employment Index but, during the recession of 2007--09 and its aftermath, the standard unemployment rate overstated the extent of underutilization in the labor market.

Last updated: August 10th 2015

Working Papers


7. Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort, Abstract PDF Slides

by Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak
Presentations: The 20th ENSAI Economics day "On Labor Markets Instability", Paris, France (June 29-30, 2015, by coauthor), Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal (June 1-2, 2015, by coauthor)

6. Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories, Abstract External Link

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, October 2014, Richmond FED WP No. 14-18

Presentations: Econometric Society World Congress (August 2015, Montreal, Canada), FRB Chicago (August 2015), SED (June 2015), SOLE (June 2015, by coauthor), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Dallas (May 2015), CADRE Workshop at Kansas City FED (May 2015), Elon University (April 2015), U Montreal (April 2015), Kentucky-FRB Cleveland 2015 Labor Market Workshop (February 2015), Stockman Conference at Rochester (October 2014), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Minneapolis (May 2014)
Media coverage:
: Econbrowser, Market Watch International

5. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data  Abstract  External Link

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, January 2014, NBER WP No. 19850.

Presentations: FR Board (August 2015), BYU Red Rock Conference, Utah (September, 2014)* EEA-ESEM, Toulouse, France (August, 2014), International Banking, Economics and Finance Association, Western Economic Association*, Denver CO (2014), NBER SI EFG Group (2014), NBER SI Monetary Economics Group (2014), SED (June 2014), NY FED (May 2014), University of Cologne*, VCU (April 2014), Tinbergen Institute*, London Business School*, CREI*, Boston College*, Texas A&M University*, University of Houston/Rice*, FRB St. Louis (2013),  4th Ifo Conference on “Macroeconomics and Survey Data”, Munich, Germany (2013)*

Media coverage: Washington Post, The News Tribune UniBul Credit Card Blog, VoxEU


4. Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, November 2013, Richmond FED WP No. 13-09R

Presentations: ASSA, Boston (2015), SED (June 2014)*, New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payment Markets (October, 2013)*, ASU*

Media coverage:  WSJ, The Guardian, NBC News, Bankrate, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fox Business, UniBul Credit Card Blog, Global Association of Risk Professionals, The State, Chicago Tribune, Yahoo! News, Sun Herald, Morningstar, College Times, KGW-TV, Portland, OR, NBC Washington

Status: Submitted.


3. The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, Richmond FED WP No. 14-12

Presentations: SOLE (June 2015)*, SED (June 2014)*, 2013 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Conference (2013)*, CIREQ Labor Workshop in Montreal: Micro and Macro Perspectives on Unemployment, University of Notre Dame (2013)*, NBER SI, Shimer-Rogerson-Wright Group (2013)*, Kansas City FED*, System Applied Microeconomics Conference (2013)*, 3rd Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2012)*


2. Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-04


Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13

(For Supplementary Appendix click here.)

Presentations: Society of Labor Economists Annual Meetings (2009), EEA Annual Meeting (2009).


(Note: Presentations marked by * are by a coauthor)


Refereed Academic Publications and Papers in R&R Stage

4. Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-03R, Revision requested by the Journal of Labor Economics

This paper was initially posted under the title "Sorting by Skill Over the Course of Job Search."

Presentations: 
U Toronto (2013), SED, Seoul, Korea (2013),  North American Summer Meeting, LA (2013), U Warwick (2013), SOLE, Boston (2013), ASSA, San Diego (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2012), UC Berkeley (2012)


3. The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor

by Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 68: 53-67. Link, Richmond FED WP, Nov 2007 version.

Supplementary Materials

Presentations: Boston College (March 2014), ASSA, Denver CO (2011), Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (2009), Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May 2009), System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May 2009), New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April 2009), FRB Kansas City (2008), FRB Cleveland (2008), UC Santa Cruz (2008), University of Montreal (2008), Wilfrid Laurier University (2008), Kyiv School of Economics (2008).


2. Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model

by David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.  Link, Richmond FED WP.

Presentations: ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, PA (2014)*, Fall Midwest Macro Meeting (2013)*, Stockman Conference at Rochester (2012)*.

Media coverage: NED-DGE Blog


1. Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from U.S. States

by Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186. Link, Richmond FED WP.


Publications in Federal Reserve Journals


FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly:


7. What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath,

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, forthcoming.

6. Flows To and From "Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons" and the Labor Market Aggregates in the Aftermath of the 2007-09 Recession, Link PDF

Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.

Media coverage:Digital Journal, Economist's View


            Abstract: Using counterfactual exercises for the transition probabilities between full-time employment, part-time employment for economic reasons (PTER), part-time employment for noneconomic reasons     (PTNER), unemployment, and out-of-the-labor-force similar to Shimer (2012), we find that, ceteris paribus, changes in the transition probabilities to and from PTER in the aftermath of the 2007--09 recession were mainly associated with changes in the composition of employment (full- versus part time, and PTER versus PTNER) instead of with changes in the distribution of individuals between employment and non-employment. Consequently, policymakers' attention to PTER implies a broader definition of resource underutilization in the labor market than a simple extensive employment margin as captured by the standard unemployment rate. It brings attention to the intensive employment margin and the quality of employment. Since PTER workers' share is highest in non-routine manual (typically, low-wage) occupations and given recent works on job polarization, it is a challenging task to disentangle cyclical versus structural factors behind an increased number of PTER workers after the 2007--09 recession.


5. Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, PDF Link Slides

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.

            Abstract: In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment to employment. These observations on labor market transitions suggest that the standard unemployment rate and its extensions proposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are both too coarse and too narrow as measures of resource utilization in the labor market. These measures are too narrow since they exclude a large part of the population that is potentially employable, and they are too coarse since they assume the same labor force attachment for all nonemployed individuals. We construct a measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a nonemployment index, that is both comprehensive and accounts for differences in labor force attachment. Prior to 2007, the standard unemployment rate was highly correlated with our nonemployment index but, during the recession of 2007--09 and its aftermath, the standard unemployment rate overstated the extent of underutilization in the labor market.
Media coverage: Econbrowser

4. A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation, PDF Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.

Media coverage: White House CEA Report

            Abstract: We estimate a trend in the aggregate labor force participation rate using the age-gender and the birth cohort effects in the labor force participation rates of different demographic groups and the actual demographic composition of the population. We find that, in 2012, the aggregate labor force participation rate is close to its trend.

3. Housing Services Price Inflation, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 3Q 2012.


            Abstract: We provide an explanation of how inflation of the price of housing services is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and describe alternative approaches. We then describe the contribution of inflation of the price of housing services to inflation in the consumer price index during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Finally, we examine new data series that provide additional information about the rental market for housing services and use this information to evaluate the direction of the pressure on housing services price inflation.


2. Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 4Q, 2011.


            Abstract: We conduct an accounting exercise of the changes in aggregate employment, unemployment, and out of labor force (OLF) among 25–64-year-old men from 1968–2010. We decompose the observed changes in these labor market outcomes into changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and changes in the labor market outcomes of different sociodemographic groups. Using the results of the decomposition, we predict that the OLF-to-population ratio for men will increase to 16 percent in 2015, up from 14.7 percent in 2010.


1. Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q, 2010.


            Abstract: Search models of the labor market suggest that a significant determinant of job creation decisions by firms is the expected value of the initial and future real wages that firms have to pay to workers in newly formed employment relationships. Until recently, the focus of the empirical literature has been on the cyclical behavior of the current wage, but not on the cyclical behavior of the expected present discounted value of future wages within a match. This article reviews the empirical literature on the cyclicality of real wages of workers in continuing employment relationships, wages of newly hired workers, and a measure of wages that takes into account future wages within employment relationships. The existing evidence suggests that the real wage most relevant for job creation decisions appears to be quite flexible over the business cycle. Thus, the wage data do not support the rigidity necessary to generate the empirical volatility of unemployment in the standard search and matching model.


Short Articles:


14. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Food for Thought

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, forthcoming.

13. On the Female LFP Rate

Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Forthcoming.

12. How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.
Media coverage:WSJ.

11. Youth Labor Force Participation Continues to Fall, but It Might Be for a Good Reason,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.


10. Is Involuntary Part-Time Employment Different after the Great Recession?,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.

Media coverage: WSJ Blogs


9. Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?,

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.

Data: Index Series for Economic Brief, Annual

Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market

Media coverage: WSJ, WashingtonExaminer.com, Reuters


8. Not Everyone Who Joins the Ranks of the Employed Was “Unemployed”,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.
Media coverage: St Louis Post-Dispatch

7. How Risky Are Young Borrowers,
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, December 2013.

6. A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate, 
Maria Canon
, Peter Debbaut, and Marianna Kudlyak, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2013.

Media coverage: Macromania


5. Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search,
Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2013.

4. The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and the Recovery
Marianna Kudlyak, and David Price,
Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2012.


3. The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)
Marianna Kudlyak, David Price, and Juan M. Sanchez, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, October 2010.

2. Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions: a Focus on the Age Composition of the Population
Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond , April 2010.


1. Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures
Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Sept 2009.




Work in Progress


Wages Over the Business Cycle


On UI


On Consumption


On Linkages


On WPfER


Revisiting Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on the Behavior of Small and Large Firms
Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M. Sanchez

Estimating the Trend in the Labor Force Participation Rate

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Presentations: FRB St. Louis (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2013)



Discussions


9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,
New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona, September 18-19, 2015.


8. "Aging and Deflation: Japanese Experience" by Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara,
Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.

7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,
System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.

6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,
Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.

5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,
2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.

4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,
Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.

3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,
Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.

2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,
New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.

1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,
Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.



Referee Service

American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, International Economic Review, American Economic Journal: Macro, Review of Economic Dynamics, Labour Economics, European Economic Review, Economic Letters, Journal of Legal Studies, Journal of Labor Research, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Macroeconomics.



Other Professional Activities

Visiting Scholar:

 CIREQ, Montreal, CANADA, April 2015

          FRB St. Louis, St. Louis, December 2013         

Conference session organizer/chair:

Session “Unemployment Across Regions and Sectors” ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, January 2014.

Session “Real Estate: Mortgage Default” Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.

Session “New Evidence from Online Job Search” ASSA Meetings, San Diego, January 2013 (organizer).

Session “Labor Market, Labor Decisions, and Production Cycles” ASSA Meetings, Denver, January 2011 (co-organizer).

Conference co-organizer: 

          Alan Stockman University of Rochester Alumni Conference, Rochester, October 2014

Federal Reserve System Applied Microeconomics Conference, Richmond, May 16-17 2012

 


Extracurricular Readings

Gender and education: Nature plus nurture, Economist, Mar 2015