Current Appointment: Economist at the FRB Richmond (on leave) and Visiting Scholar at the UC Berkeley.Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index Link
(Reference: "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," by Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015. PDF Link Slides)
of the unemployment rate after the 2007-09 recession has coincided with the
increase in the number of individuals out of the labor force. These observations
lead to the question: Post-2007, is there
substantial labor market weakness beyond what is
measured by the unemployment rate? The
Non-Employment Index (NEI) is a weighted average of all the non-employed
expressed as the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 years
and older where the weight for each group
is given by its transition rate to employment relative to the highest
transition rate among all groups (the transition rate of the short-term unemployed).
The weights are designed to account for persistent differences in labor market
attachment among the non-employed. Current level of the unemployment rate is associated with the same level of the
NEI, a more comprehensive measure of the labor market health, as the comparable
level of the unemployment rate pre-2007 recession.
6. Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit, PDFby Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, November 2015, Richmond FED WP No. 15-14
Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, October 2014, Richmond FED WP No. 14-18
Presentations: Econometric Society World Congress (August 2015, Montreal, Canada), FRB Chicago (August 2015), SED (June 2015), SOLE (June 2015, by coauthor), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Dallas (May 2015), CADRE Workshop at Kansas City FED (May 2015), Elon University (April 2015), U Montreal (April 2015), Kentucky-FRB Cleveland 2015 Labor Market Workshop (February 2015), Stockman Conference at Rochester (October 2014), System Applied Micro Meeting at FRB Minneapolis (May 2014)
Media coverage:: Econbrowser, Market Watch International
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, January 2014, NBER WP No. 19850.
Presentations: FRB Philadelphia Payments Center (Nov 3, 2015), Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Mannheim, Germany (24-27 Aug, 2015), FR Board (August 2015), BYU Red Rock Conference, Utah (September, 2014)*, EEA-ESEM, Toulouse, France (August, 2014), International Banking, Economics and Finance Association, Western Economic Association*, Denver CO (2014), NBER SI EFG Group (2014), NBER SI Monetary Economics Group (2014), SED (June 2014), NY FED (May 2014), University of Cologne*, VCU (April 2014), Tinbergen Institute*, London Business School*, CREI*, Boston College*, Texas A&M University*, University of Houston/Rice*, FRB St. Louis (2013), 4th Ifo Conference on “Macroeconomics and Survey Data”, Munich, Germany (2013)*
Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, Richmond FED WP No. 14-12
Presentations: SOLE (June 2015)*, SED (June 2014)*, 2013 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Conference (2013)*, CIREQ Labor Workshop in Montreal: Micro and Macro Perspectives on Unemployment, University of Notre Dame (2013)*, NBER SI, Shimer-Rogerson-Wright Group (2013)*, Kansas City FED*, System Applied Microeconomics Conference (2013)*, 3rd Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2012)*
Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13
(For Supplementary Appendix click here.)
Presentations: Society of Labor Economists Annual Meetings (2009), EEA Annual Meeting (2009).
(Note: Presentations marked by * are by a coauthor)
Refereed Academic Publications and Papers in R&R Stage
5. Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-03R, Revision requested by the Journal of Labor Economics
This paper was initially posted under the title "Sorting by Skill Over the Course of Job Search."
4. The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected PDF
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Forthcoming at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Presentations: ASSA, Boston (2015), SED (June 2014)*, New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payment Markets (October, 2013)*, ASU*
Media coverage: WSJ, The Guardian, NBC News, Bankrate, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fox Business, UniBul Credit Card Blog, Global Association of Risk Professionals, The State, Chicago Tribune, Yahoo! News, Sun Herald, Morningstar, College Times, KGW-TV, Portland, OR, NBC Washington
The paper previously circulated under title "Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009"
by Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 68: 53-67.
Presentations: Boston College (March 2014), ASSA, Denver CO (2011), Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (2009), Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May 2009), System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May 2009), New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April 2009), FRB Kansas City (2008), FRB Cleveland (2008), UC Santa Cruz (2008), University of Montreal (2008), Wilfrid Laurier University (2008), Kyiv School of Economics (2008).
by David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.
Media coverage: NED-DGE Blog
by Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186.
Publications in Federal Reserve Journals
10. Online Job Search,Preliminary PDFJason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Perspectives, FRB Chicago, forthcoming.
9. Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession,PDF
Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M Sanchez. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2016 (lead article).
8. Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, forthcoming.
7. What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath, Preliminary PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, forthcoming.
Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.
Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.
4. A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation, PDF Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.
Media coverage: White House CEA Report
3. Housing Services Price Inflation, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 3Q 2012.
2. Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 4Q, 2011.
1. Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q, 2010.
Non-Refereed Short Articles:
Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, November 2015.
Media coverage:Quartz.Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, October 2015.
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.
Media coverage: WSJ Blogs
Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.
Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.
Media coverage: St Louis Post-Dispatch
7. How Risky Are Young Borrowers,
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, December 2013.
6. A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate,
Maria Canon, Peter Debbaut, and Marianna Kudlyak, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2013.
Media coverage: Macromania
5. Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search,
Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2013.
4. The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and the Recovery
Marianna Kudlyak, and David Price, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2012.
3. The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)
Marianna Kudlyak, David Price, and Juan M. Sanchez, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, October 2010.
2. Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions: a Focus on the Age Composition of the Population
Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond , April 2010.
1. Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures
Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Sept 2009.
Work in Progress
Wages Over the Business Cycle
Draft available upon request.
Measuring Government Consumption Multiplier from Household
Retail Purchase Data
Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari
Presentations: 6th Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2015)*
Slides available upon request.
Revisiting Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on the Behavior of Small and Large Firms Preliminary PDF, Jan 2016 Slides, April 2010
Estimating the Trend in the Labor Force Participation Rate Slides, Dec 2013
Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak
Presentations: FRB St. Louis (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2013)
9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,
New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona, September 18-19, 2015.
Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.
7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,
System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.
6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,
Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.
5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,
2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.
4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries” by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,
Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.
3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,
Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.
2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,
New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.
1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,
Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.
American Economic Review,
Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Journal of Monetary Economics,
International Economic Review,
American Economic Journal: Macro,
Review of Economic Dynamics,
European Economic Review,
Journal of Legal Studies,
Journal of Labor Research,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
The Manchester School
Review of Economics and Statistics
Other Professional Activities
CIREQ, Montreal, CANADA, April 2015
Conference session organizer:
Session “Unemployment Across Regions and Sectors” ASSA
Meetings, Philadelphia, January 2014.
Session “New Evidence from Online Job Search” ASSA Meetings, San Diego, January 2013 (organizer).
Session “Labor Market, Labor Decisions, and Production Cycles” ASSA Meetings, Denver, January 2011 (co-organizer).
Alan Stockman University of Rochester Alumni Conference, Rochester, October 2014
Federal Reserve System Applied Microeconomics Conference, Richmond, May 16-17 2012
Gender and education: Nature plus nurture, Economist, Mar 2015