Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Rochester
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Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index LINK to the index on the FRB Richmond website, updated monthly
The Non-Employment Index is an alternative measure of resource utilization in the labor market developed by Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange and updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond on https://www.richmondfed.org/ The NEI is a weighted sum of all the non-employed expressed as the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 years and older where the weight for each group is given by its transition rate to employment relative to the highest transition rate among all groups (the transition rate of the short-term unemployed). The weights are designed to account for persistent differences in employment probabilities among the non-employed. Motivation for the NEI comes from an increase in the number of non-employed individuals who are not counted as the unemployed by the official statistics. (Reference: "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," by Hornstein, Kudlyak and Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015. PDF Slides)
Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort, Paper and Slides Updated 2016/12by Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-24.
Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market Paper New 2017/02
Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, 2017, FRB San Francisco WP No. 17-05.
Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-03R, Revision requested by the Journal of Labor Economics
This paper was initially posted under the title "Sorting by Skill Over the Course of Job Search."
Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories, Paper New draft coming soon
Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, 2014, Richmond FED WP No. 14-18
Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit, Paper and Slides Updated 2016/12by Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, 2015, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-31.
Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Paper and Slides Updated 2016/8
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, FRB SF WP No. 16-20
The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration Paper and Slides Updated 2017/2
Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-13
Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, FRB Richmond WP No. 12-04
Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13. For Supplementary Appendix click here.
This is an unpublished 2009 paper that describes the user cost of labor. The key point of this paper is published in "The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor", JME 2014.
Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis Paper and Slides and Data
Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M. Sanchez, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, Vol. 77: 48-69. Link
The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected PDF
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, Vol. 48(7): 1495-1513
The paper previously circulated under title "Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009"
Presentations: ASSA, Boston (2015), SED (June 2014)*, New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payment Markets (October, 2013)*, ASU*
Media coverage: WSJ, The Guardian, NBC News, Bankrate, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fox Business, UniBul Credit Card Blog, Global Association of Risk Professionals, The State, Chicago Tribune, Yahoo! News, Sun Herald, Morningstar, College Times, KGW-TV, Portland, OR, NBC Washington
by Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, Vol. 68: 53-67.
Presentations: Boston College (March 2014), ASSA, Denver CO (2011), Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (2009), Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May 2009), System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May 2009), New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April 2009), FRB Kansas City (2008), FRB Cleveland (2008), UC Santa Cruz (2008), University of Montreal (2008), Wilfrid Laurier University (2008), Kyiv School of Economics (2008).
by David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.
Media coverage: NED-DGE Blog
by Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186.
Articles in Federal Reserve Journals
What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market?, LinkJason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Perspectives, FRB Chicago, Vol. 40(1), 2016.
Media coverage:Mortgage News Daily
Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M Sanchez. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2016 (lead article).
What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, Vol. 101(3), 2015.
Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.
Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.
A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation, PDF Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.
Media coverage: White House CEA Report
Housing Services Price Inflation, PDF
Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010, PDF
Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?, Link
Short Articles in Federal Reserve Journals
Measuring Labor Utilization: the Non-Employment Index
Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, November 2015.
Media coverage:Quartz.Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, October 2015.
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.
Media coverage: WSJ Blogs
Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.
Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market
Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.
Media coverage: St Louis Post-Dispatch
How Risky Are Young Borrowers,
Media coverage: Macromania
Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search,
The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)
Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures
Work in Progress
Underemployment in an Equilibrium Search and Matching Model
Marianna Kudlyak and Guannan Luo
Draft available upon request.
Wages Over the Business Cycle
Draft available upon request.
Estimating the Trend in the Labor Force Participation Rate Slides, Dec 2013
Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak
Presentations: FRB St. Louis (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2013)
Measuring Government Consumption Multiplier from Household Retail Purchase Data Abstract
Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari
Presentations: The 31st Congress of European Economic Association (Aug 2016, by Kudlyak), Society of Economic Dynamics, Toulouse, France (June, 2016, by Dupor), FRBR-UVA Research Jamboree, UVA (May 2016, by Karabarbounis), 6th Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (Dec 2015, by Karabarbounis)
Draft available upon request.
14. "Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires," by Mark Gertler, Chris Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari
at the CADRE Conference, FRB Kansas City, May 8-9, 2017, forthcoming.
13. "Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models," by Susanto Basu and Chris House,
at the Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, FRB SF, March 31, 2017.
12. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," by Hie Joo Ann
and James D Hamilton,
at the Annual Macroeconomics Conference, UC Irvine, October 28, 2016.
11. "Credit Growth and
the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative," by Stefania
Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi,
and Jaromir Nosal,
at the “Commercial-Housing-Urban-Macro (CHUM) Conference”, FRB Atlanta and University of Wisconsin-Madison, Atlanta, October 14-15, 2016.
10. "Endogenous Wage Rigidity and Labor Force
Participation," by Cynthia L. Doniger and David López -Salido,
at the “New Developments in Macroeconomics of Labor Markets,” Kiel-FRB NY, NYC, NY, Sept 8-9, 2016.
9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,
8. "Aging and Deflation:
Japanese Experience" by Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara,
Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.
7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,
System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.
6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,
Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.
5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,
2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.
4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries” by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,
Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.
3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,
Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.
2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,
New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.
1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,
Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.
Teaching: Micro Data for Macro Models Course webpage
This is a PhD-level mini-course that covers topics on micro data for macro models. Currently, the course covers two modules: (1) Wage Rigidity, (2) Matching Efficiency.
Other Professional Activities
Conference participation (w/o presentation):