Publications

Refereed Articles

 
1.  "Nonlinear Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy,” with Richard Anderson and Barry Jones, forthcoming, Econometric Reviews, 2014.
 
2. "Nonstationarities and Markov Switching Models," in Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models, Springer, 123-148, 2013.
 
3. "Forecasting Output," with Simon Potter, in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2, ed. A. Timmermann and G. Elliott, Elsevier/North Holland, 1-56, 2013.
 
4. "Employment and the Business Cycle," with Jeremy Piger, Manchester School, Vol 81, S2, 16-42, 2013.

5. "Leading Indicators of the Capital Goods Industry in Brazil," with Igor Morais, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 31, No. 1, 137-171, 2011.  Recipient of Honor Award from the National Confederation of Industries of Brazil  - Confederacao Nacional das Industrias, CNI    

6.  "How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis," with William Barnett, Journal of Econometrics,
Vol. 161, No. 1, 6-23, 2011.
 
7.  "Business Cycle Monitoring with Structural Changes,” with Simon Potter, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 4, 777-793, 2010 (Repec or MonitorBreaks).
 
8.  "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach,” with William Barnett and Heather Tierney, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol 13, 381-412, 2009. (Repec or MeasErrMoney)
 
9.  “International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview,” with William Barnett, Open Economies Review, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2009.   

10.  “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” with Jeremy Piger, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 1,  42-49, 2008. (Repec or BC_RealTime)

11.  “Increased Stabilization and the G7 Business Cycles” with Fang Dong, in Business Fluctuations and Cycles, ed. T. Nagakawa, 265-283, 2007. (StableG7)

12.  “Dating Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time,” with James D. Hamilton, “Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles,” ed. Van Dijk, Milas, and Rothman, Elsevier’s Contributions to Economic Analysis series, 1-54, 2006. (DatingBC

13.  “International Business Cycles: G7 and OECD Countries,” with Chengxuan Yu; Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 91 No. 1, 43-54, 2006.(Repec or Bc_G7OECD)

14.  "Forecasting Brazilian Output and its Turning Points in the Presence of Breaks: A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models,” with E. Lima, G. Domingues, and B. Vasquez, Economic Studies (Estudos Economicos), Vol. 36, No.1, 5-46, 2006. (Repec or BR_TPBreak)

15.  "Forecasting Recessions Using the Yield Curve,” with S. Potter, Journal of Forecasting, 24, 2, 77-103, 2005. (Repec or ForecYield)

16.  "Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crises “ The Asian Experience,” with Fang Dong , Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 89, No. 1, 26-37, 2004.(Repec or CountryRisk)

17.  “Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time,” with Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Review, March/April, 47-62, 2003.(Repec or TPrealtime)

            Cited in Boston Globe and Dow Jones Newswires 12/12/2002

18.  “Sunspots, Animal Spirits, and Economic Fluctuations,” with J.T. Guo, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 7, No. 1, February 2003.(SSRN or sunspots)

19.  "Maturing Capitalism and Stabilization: International Evidence,” with G. Popli in Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 1, No. 12, 5-22, 2003.

20. "Markov Switching in Disaggregate Unemployment Rates,” with C.  Juhn and S. Potter, Empirical Economics, Vol. 27, No.2, 205-232, 2002.(Repec or MSunemployment)

Reprint in: Advances in Markov Switching Models, ed. J.D. Hamilton and B. Raj. Studies in Empirical Economics. Physica-Verlag, 61-88, 2002.

21.  “Predicting Recessions: Evidence from the Yield Curve in the Presence of Structural Breaks,” with S. Potter, Economics Letters, Vol. 77, No. 2, 245-253, 2002. (Repec or PredicBreaks)

22.  “The Brazilian Business Cycle and Growth Cycle,” Brazilian Economic Journal (Revista Brasileira de Economia), Vol. 56 nº 1, 75-106, 2002. (Repec or BrazilBCGC)

23.  “Nonlinear Risk,” with S. Potter, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 5, No. 4, 621-646, 2001.(Repec or Nonlinearrisk)

24.  “Recent Changes in the U.S. Business Cycle,” with S. Potter, Manchester School, Vol. 69, No. 5, 481-508, 2001. (Repec or ChangesBC)

            Cited in Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires May 9, 2001

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) June 26, 2001

25.  “A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP,” in Brazilian Review of Econometrics Vol. 21, No. 1, 1-15, 2001 Recipient of Honor Award from the Brazilian Econometric Society. (BrazilIndicatorGDP)

26.  “Leading Indicators of the Brazilian Inflation,” Economic Research and Planning (Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico), Vol. 31, 1, 323-354, 2001 (Repec - English or BrazilLeadingInflation-Portuguese).

27.  “Coincident and Leading Indicators of the Stock Market,” with S. Potter, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1, 87-111, 2000.(Repec or CoinleadSM)

28.  “Stock Market Fluctuations and the Business Cycle,” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 25, No. 3, 235-258, 1998/1999.(SSRN or SMBC)

29.  “An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switches,” International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 4, 969-96, 1998. (Working Paper or IER)

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) June 28, 2008 

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) February 6, 2008

            Cited in Washington Post January 20, 2008

            Cited in Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires March 28, 2002   

  Books

30.     “Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: Implication for Monetary Policy and Financial Modeling, A Survey,” with W.A. Barnett, World Scientific Publishing, 2011.

31.     “Calling the Business Cycle,” with James Hamilton and Kevin Hassett, The American Enterprise Institute Press, forthcoming.

  Conference Proceedings

32.    "Nonlinear Measurement Errors in Monetary Aggregates," with W.A. Barnett and H. Tierney in American Statistical Association, JSM Proceedings of Business and Economics, 2009 (invited).

33.    "The End of the Great Moderation? How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Systemic Risk Precipitating the Financial Crisis," with W.A. Barnett in American Statistical Association, JSM Proceedings of Business and Economics, 2009 (invited).

34.    "Predicting Recessions in Brazil," Latin American Meetings of the Economeric Society and Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association Meetings, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2008 (electronic).

35. “Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy: A Nonparametric Approach,” in Proceedings of the 27th International Forecasting Symposium, New York, June 2007 (electronic).

36.    “Leading Indicators of Recession for the Brazilian Economy,” with Jose A. B. da Silva, in Proceedings of the XXVI Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2004, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil.

37.    “International Economic Stabilization: Empirical Evidence,” with G. Popli, in Proceedings of the XXIV Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2002, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

38.    “Forecasting Brazilian Output in the Presence of Structural Breaks – A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models,” with E. Lima and B. Vasquez, in Proceedings of the XXIV Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2002, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1-20.

39.    “Coincident Indicators of the Brazilian Business Cycle,” in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE), Brazil, December 2001.

40.    “The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations,” in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Economic Association (ANPEC), Brazil, December 2001.

41.    “Recessions and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” with S. Potter, in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Society, Brazil, October 2001.

42.    “Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks” with S. Potter, in Proceedings of the 2001 International Business & Economics Research Conference, Reno, Nevada, October 2001, Refereed.

43.    “Real Time Leading Indicators of the Brazilian Inflation,” Proceedings of the XXII Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, Vol. 1, December 2000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

44.     “An Empirical Analysis of Sunspots and the Business Cycles,” with J.T. Guo, in Proceedings of the II International Colloquium in Economic Dynamics and Economic Policy, ed. J.R. Teixeira and F.G. Carneiro, Brasilia, Brazil, 1999, 193-214.

Economic Outlook

1.        “Tumbling Dice,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Feb 28 2009, with Kevin Hassett. (dice)

2.        “The Facts Say No,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Dec 16 2007, with Kevin Hassett. ( NoRecessionYet)

3.        “Is the U.S. Recession Over Yet?” CREFC Economic Letter, March No. 2002-01. (Recession2001)

4.        “Recuperacao Lenta ou Risco de Recessao?”, International Economic Conditions, August 2002, 1-4, International Relation Secretary (SAIN), Ministry of Finance of Brazil (Fazenda).

5.        “Slow Recovery or a Double Dip Recession?” CREFC Economic Letter, November No. 2002-02.

   

Economic Policy Papers

  • Master's Thesis (MSc in Economic Policy):  Analysis of Taxation Policy in the Rice Market of Sao Paulo, University of Brasilia (under  fellowship from CNPq and PNPE/IPEA).
  • Master's Thesis:  The Economic Impact of Changes in Value-Added Tax on Basic Food, University of Pennsylvania (under fellowship from OAS - Organization of American States)
  • Comparative Experience in the Electricity Sector of Selected Countries, (prepared for the World Bank, Africa Division)
  • Analysis of Economic Policy in Brazil: 1979-1988, (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)
  • Financial Simulation Models for Measuring Performance and Decision Making, (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)
  • The Liquidity Question in the Cruzado Plan, (under a grant from the University of Brasilia)

 

Subpages (1): Working Papers
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