Brazil Probabilities of Recession (Chauvet 2001)

 
Real Time Probabilities of Recession for
 
 
Brazil
 
 
 
 
Probability of Recession in September 2012: 12.6%
 
(as of November 2012 data available up to September 2012)
 
 
 
 
 
The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
 
Chauvet, M. (2001), "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 21, 1, 1-47.
 
The paper can be downloaded from here:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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