Brazil Probabilities of Recession (Chauvet 2001)

Real Time Probabilities of Recession for
Probability of Recession in September 2012: 12.6%
(as of November 2012 data available up to September 2012)
The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
Chauvet, M. (2001), "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 21, 1, 1-47.
The paper can be downloaded from here: