Marcelle Chauvet

Probabilities of Recession

Economic Outlook


UCR Conference on Latin American Studies

Brazil Probabilities of Recession (Chauvet 2001)

Real Time Probabilities of Recession for
Probability of Recession in September 2012: 12.6%
(as of November 2012 data available up to September 2012)
The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
Chauvet, M. (2001), "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 21, 1, 1-47.
The paper can be downloaded from here: