Current Economic Situation:
Probability of Recession in August 2012 is:
U.S. Recession ended in June 2009
Probabilites of recession have been below 50% since 07/2009. They increased from around 5% to around 25% early last year. They were below 10% from August 2011 to June 12. They are currently around 15%.
Below are the smoothed probabilities of recession, recursively estimated every month
(As of end of October 2012, data available up to August 2012)
Month Probability of Business Cycle Recession Recession Indicator
For more details see: CREFC
Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles
The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
Chauvet, M. (1998), "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycles with Factor Structure and Markov Switching," International Economic Review, 39, 4, 969-996.
The paper can be downloaded from here: