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Current Economic Situation: Probability of Recession in August 2012 is:
15.2%
U.S. Recession ended in June 2009 Probabilites of recession have been below 50% since 07/2009. They increased from around 5% to around 25% early last year. They were below 10% from August 2011 to June 12. They are currently around 15%.
Below are the smoothed probabilities of recession, recursively estimated every month
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(As of end of October 2012, data available up to August 2012)
Month Probability of Business Cycle Recession Recession Indicator
(%)
For more details see: CREFC
Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:
Chauvet, M. (1998), "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycles with Factor Structure and Markov Switching," International Economic Review, 39, 4, 969-996.
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