Marcelle Chauvet

Economic Outlook

Curriculum

UCR Conference on Latin American Studies

C.V.


Education

  • University of Pennsylvania, Ph.D., Economics
  • University of Pennsylvania, M.S., Economics
  • University of Brasilia, M.S., Economic Policy
  • University of Brasilia, B.S., Economics

Research

  • Macroeconomics
  • Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
  • Finance
  • Latin American Economics
  • Development and Growth

Academic Employment

  • Graduate Advisor, Department of Economics (Present)
  • Chair, Latin American Studies Program, University of California, Riverside.
  • University of California Riverside, Department of Economics, Professor (Present)
  • University of California Riverside, Department of Economics, Associate Professor
  • University of California Riverside, Department of Economics, Assistant Professor
  • University of Brasilia, Department of Economics, Visiting Professor  

Non-Academic Employment

  • Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund
  • Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
  • Academic Advisor, Research Affiliates, LLC

  • Research Director, Center for Research in Economic and Financial Cycles – CREFC, US & Brazil (Present).
  • Associate Policy Adviser & Senior Research Economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Consultant, Statistical Analysis Inc., California.
  • Consultant, Economics Department, Central Bank of Brasil (BACEN), Brasilia, Brazil.
  • Consultant, Research Department, Central Bank of Brasil (BACEN), Brasilia, Brazil.
  • Macroeconomist/Consultant, Arbi Asset Management, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
  • Intern, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Intern, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Economic Advisor, Ministry of Industry - SEBRAE, Brasilia, Brazil.
  • Intern, TELEBRAS - Brazilian Telecommunication Company, Brasilia, Brazil.

Teaching

Undergraduate

  • Introduction, Intermediate, and Advanced Macroeconomics 
  • Intermediate Microeconomics
  • Forecasting in Business & Economics
  • Natural Resources Economics

Graduate

  • Macroeconomic Theory and Advanced Macroeconomic Theory
  • Empirical Dynamic Macroeconomics
  • Macroeconomic Time Series 
  • Advanced Econometrics
  • Colloquium in Economic Theory

Editorial Board

  • Assist. Editor, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013-
  • Co-Editor, Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012-
  • Associated Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003-
  • Board Member, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (JBCMA), 2011-
  • Director, International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE), 2013-

Publication

Refereed Articles

1.  "Nonlinear Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy,” with Richard Anderson and Barry Jones, forthcoming, Econometric Reviews, 2014.
 
2. "Nonstationarities and Markov Switching Models," in Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models, Springer, 123-148, 2013.
 
3. "Forecasting Output," with Simon Potter, in Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2, ed. A. Timmermann and G. Elliott, Elsevier/North Holland, 1-56, 2013.
 
4. "Employment and the Business Cycle," with Jeremy Piger, Manchester School, Vol 81, S2, 16-42, 2013.

5. "Leading Indicators of the Capital Goods Industry in Brazil," with Igor Morais, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 31, No. 1, 137-171, 2011. Recipient of Honor Award from the National Confederation of Industries of Brazil  - CNI     

6.  "How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis," with William Barnett, Journal of Econometrics,
Vol. 161, No. 1, 6-23, 2011.
 
7.  "Business Cycle Monitoring with Structural Changes,” with Simon Potter, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 4, 777-793, 2010 (Repec or MonitorBreaks).
 
8.  "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach,” with William Barnett and Heather Tierney, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol 13, 381-412, 2009. (Repec or MeasErrMoney)
 
9.  “International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview,” with William Barnett, Open Economies Review, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2009.   

10.  “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” with Jeremy Piger, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 1,  42-49, 2008. (Repec or BC_RealTime)

11.  “Increased Stabilization and the G7 Business Cycles” with Fang Dong, in Business Fluctuations and Cycles, ed. T. Nagakawa, 265-283, 2007. (StableG7)

12.  “Dating Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time,” with James D. Hamilton, “Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles,” ed. Van Dijk, Milas, and Rothman, Elsevier’s Contributions to Economic Analysis series, 1-54, 2006. (DatingBC

13.  “International Business Cycles: G7 and OECD Countries,” with Chengxuan Yu; Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 91 No. 1, 43-54, 2006.(Repec or Bc_G7OECD)

14.  "Forecasting Brazilian Output and its Turning Points in the Presence of Breaks: A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models,” with E. Lima, G. Domingues, and B. Vasquez, Economic Studies (Estudos Economicos), Vol. 36, No.1, 5-46, 2006. (Repec or BR_TPBreak)

15.  "Forecasting Recessions Using the Yield Curve,” with S. Potter, Journal of Forecasting, 24, 2, 77-103, 2005. (Repec or ForecYield)

16.  "Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crises “ The Asian Experience,” with Fang Dong , Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, First Quarter, Vol. 89, No. 1, 26-37, 2004.(Repec or CountryRisk)

17.  “Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time,” with Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Review, March/April, 47-62, 2003.(Repec or TPrealtime)

            Cited in Boston Globe and Dow Jones Newswires 12/12/2002

18.  “Sunspots, Animal Spirits, and Economic Fluctuations,” with J.T. Guo, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 7, No. 1, February 2003.(SSRN or sunspots)

19.  "Maturing Capitalism and Stabilization: International Evidence,” with G. Popli in Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 1, No. 12, 5-22, 2003.

20. "Markov Switching in Disaggregate Unemployment Rates,” with C.  Juhn and S. Potter, Empirical Economics, Vol. 27, No.2, 205-232, 2002.(Repec or MSunemployment)

Reprint in: Advances in Markov Switching Models, ed. J.D. Hamilton and B. Raj. Studies in Empirical Economics. Physica-Verlag, 61-88, 2002.

21.  “Predicting Recessions: Evidence from the Yield Curve in the Presence of Structural Breaks,” with S. Potter, Economics Letters, Vol. 77, No. 2, 245-253, 2002. (Repec or PredicBreaks)

22.  “The Brazilian Business Cycle and Growth Cycle,” Brazilian Economic Journal (Revista Brasileira de Economia), Vol. 56 nº 1, 75-106, 2002. (Repec or BrazilBCGC)

23.  “Nonlinear Risk,” with S. Potter, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 5, No. 4, 621-646, 2001.(Repec or Nonlinearrisk)

24.  “Recent Changes in the U.S. Business Cycle,” with S. Potter, Manchester School, Vol. 69, No. 5, 481-508, 2001. (Repec or ChangesBC)

            Cited in Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires May 9, 2001

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) June 26, 2001

25.  “A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP,” in Brazilian Review of Econometrics Vol. 21, No. 1, 1-15, 2001 Recipient of Honor Award from the Brazilian Econometric Society. (BrazilIndicatorGDP)

26.  “Leading Indicators of the Brazilian Inflation,” Economic Research and Planning (Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico), Vol. 31, 1, 323-354, 2001 (Repec - English or BrazilLeadingInflation-Portuguese).

27.  “Coincident and Leading Indicators of the Stock Market,” with S. Potter, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1, 87-111, 2000.(Repec or CoinleadSM)

28.  “Stock Market Fluctuations and the Business Cycle,” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 25, No. 3, 235-258, 1998/1999.(SSRN or SMBC)

29.  “An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switches,” International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 4, 969-96, 1998. (Working Paper or IER)

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) June 28, 2008 

            Cited in Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) February 6, 2008

            Cited in Washington Post January 20, 2008

            Cited in Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires March 28, 2002   

  Books

30.     “Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: Implication for Monetary Policy and Financial Modeling, A Survey,” with W.A. Barnett, World Scientific, forthcoming.

31.     “Calling the Business Cycle,” with James Hamilton and Kevin Hassett, The American Enterprise Institute Press, forthcoming.

  Conference Proceedings

32.    "Nonlinear Measurement Errors in Monetary Aggregates," with W.A. Barnett and H. Tierney in American Statistical Association, JSM Proceedings of Business and Economics, 2009 (invited).

33.    "The End of the Great Moderation? How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Systemic Risk Precipitating the Financial Crisis," with W.A. Barnett in American Statistical Association, JSM Proceedings of Business and Economics, 2009 (invited).

34.    "Predicting Recessions in Brazil," Latin American Meetings of the Economeric Society and Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association Meetings, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2008 (electronic).

35. “Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy: A Nonparametric Approach,” in Proceedings of the 27th International Forecasting Symposium, New York, June 2007 (electronic).

36.    “Leading Indicators of Recession for the Brazilian Economy,” with Jose A. B. da Silva, in Proceedings of the XXVI Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2004, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil.

37.    “International Economic Stabilization: Empirical Evidence,” with G. Popli, in Proceedings of the XXIV Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2002, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

38.    “Forecasting Brazilian Output in the Presence of Structural Breaks – A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models,” with E. Lima and B. Vasquez, in Proceedings of the XXIV Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2002, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1-20.

39.    “Coincident Indicators of the Brazilian Business Cycle,” in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE), Brazil, December 2001.

40.    “The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations,” in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Economic Association (ANPEC), Brazil, December 2001.

41.    “Recessions and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” with S. Potter, in Proceedings of the 2001 Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Society, Brazil, October 2001.

42.    “Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks” with S. Potter, in Proceedings of the 2001 International Business & Economics Research Conference, Reno, Nevada, October 2001, Refereed.

43.    “Real Time Leading Indicators of the Brazilian Inflation,” Proceedings of the XXII Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, Vol. 1, December 2000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

44.     “An Empirical Analysis of Sunspots and the Business Cycles,” with J.T. Guo, in Proceedings of the II International Colloquium in Economic Dynamics and Economic Policy, ed. J.R. Teixeira and F.G. Carneiro, Brasilia, Brazil, 1999, 193-214.

Economic Outlook

1.   “Tumbling Dice,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Feb 28 2009, with Kevin Hassett. (dice)

2.   “The Facts Say No,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Dec 16 2007, with Kevin Hassett. ( NoRecessionYet)

3.   “Is the U.S. Recession Over Yet?” CREFC Economic Letter, March No. 2002-01. (Recession2001)

4.   “Recuperacao Lenta ou Risco de Recessao?”, International Economic Conditions, August 2002, 1-4, International Relation Secretary (SAIN), Ministry of Finance of Brazil (Fazenda).

5.   “Slow Recovery or a Double Dip Recession?” CREFC Economic Letter, November No. 2002-02.

 

Working Papers

 

      1.  "Fear and Loathing in the Housing Market: Evidence from Search Query Data," with Chandler Lutz and Gabriel Stuart (SSRN).

 

      2.  "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology," with Jaromir Benes, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton,

      Susanna Mursula, and Jack Selody, IMF Working Papers 12/109, International Monetary Fund.

 

      3.  "What Does Realized Volatility Tell US About Macroeconomic Fluctuations?" with Zeynep Senyuz and Emre Yoldas (Repec)

      4.  "Microfoundations of Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," with Insu Kim        

      5.  "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," with Heather Tierney.

      6.  "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles,” with Zeynep Senyuz

     (Repec or YieldEconomy).

     7.   “The Seeds of the 2007-2009 Crisis: the Housing Market and the Business Cycle,” with MeiChi Huang.

     8.  “Predicting Recessions in Brazil,” with Igor Morais.

 

     9.   "Growth Cycles and Business Cycles."

 

Economic Policy Papers

  • Master's Thesis (MSc    in Economic Policy):  Analysis of Taxation Policy in the Rice Market of Sao Paulo, University of Brasilia (under  fellowship from CNPq and PNPE/IPEA).
  • Master's Thesis:  The Economic Impact of Changes in Value-Added Tax on Basic Food, University of Pennsylvania (under fellowship from OAS - Organization of American States)
  • Comparative Experience in the Electricity Sector of Selected Countries, (prepared for the World Bank, Africa Division)
  • Analysis of Economic Policy in Brazil: 1979-1988, (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)
  • Financial Simulation Models for Measuring Performance and Decision Making, (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)
  • The Liquidity Question in the Cruzado Plan, (under a grant from the University of Brasilia)
 

Grants, Honors, and Awards

  • Retention Research Grant 2010-2014, University of California, Riverside.
  • Retention Research Grant 2002-2007, University of California, Riverside.
  • Academic Senate Research Grant, 1995-Present, University of California, Riverside.
  • Pronex/FGV, 1997-2002, Brazil.
  • Regents’ Faculty Fellowship 1999-2000, University of California, Riverside.
  • Dean's Faculty Research Incentive 1997-1998, University of California, Riverside.
  • Initial Research Grant, University of California, Riverside.
  • Doctoral fellowship, CNPq, Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil.
  • Master fellowship, Organization of American States.
  • Selected Thesis Fellowship, IPEA, Economic Research Institute, Brazil.
  • Master fellowship, CNPq, Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil.
  • Scientific Initiation Scholarship, CNPq, Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil.
  • Undergraduate Scholarship, PET, CAPES, Ministry of Education, Brazil.
  • Entry in ‘Who is Who in America’
  • Honors’ Award Paper: “A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP” in The Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 21, No. 1, May 2002, Brazilian Econometric Society, December 2003.
  • Best Paper Award “Maturing Capitalism and Stabilization: International Evidence,” with Gurleen Popli, Journal of Business and Economics, November 2003.

Professional Activities

Invited/Honorary Lectures

  • Invited Keynote Speaker, "Growth and Business Cycle in Theory and Practice". Manchester School. Manchester, U.K., June 2011. 
  • Invited Speaker, 13th ESTE Meeting of the Brazilian Statistics Association, School of Time Series & Econometrics, Sao Paulo, Brazil, July 2009.
  • Invited Keynote Speaker, 29th CIRET Conference - Santiago, Chile, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, CEPAL/ECLAC/FGV, October, 2008.  
  • Invited Speaker, Speaker Series of the A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCR, Museum of Photography, Riverside, April, 2006.  
  • Invited Speaker, Conference of the American Home Surfaces Association, Naples, Florida, September, 2003.  
  • Invited Speaker, Ministry of Finance (Fazenda), Brasilia, Brazil, July 2002.
  • Invited Speaker, 14th SINAPE - National Symposium of Probability and Statistics, Brazilian Association of Statistics, Caxambu, Brazil, July, 2000.
  • Invited Keynote Speaker, Central Bank of Brazil (Teleconference), Brasilia, Brazil, April, 2000.

 Invited Presentations   

    • 2013 Centre for Applied Financial Economics (CAFE), "Workshop on Recent Developments in Forecasting Techniques for Macro and Finance," USC, Los Angeles, November.
    • 2013 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Research Department, Ohio, November.
    • 2013 Oberlin College, Department of Economics, Ohio, November.
    • 2013 University of Kansas, Department of Economics, Lawrence, November.
    • 2013 Female Mentoring Workshop at Midwest Econometric Conference, University of Indiana, Bloomington, October.
    • 2013 IBRE/FGV, Economic Brazilian Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May.
    • 2013 3rd Vale/EPGE Conference "Business Cycles," Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May.
    • 2013 Graduate Student Mentoring Seminar, George Washington University, April, Washington, D.C.
    • 2013 George Washington University, Department of Economics, April, Washington, D.C.
    • 2012 Centre for Applied Financial Economics, Conference "Global Crisis and Latin American Economies," USC/UCR - Latin American Studies Program, Los Angeles, November.
    • 2012 “Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications". Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and CIRANO Forecasting and High-Dimensional Data Analysis Group, Philadelphia, October.
    • 2012 Norges Bank, Research Deparment, Oslo, Norway, September.
    • 2012  BI Business School, Oslo, Norway, September.
    • 2012 “Conference on Nonlinear Advances in Economic Modeling,” BI Business School, Oslo, Norway, September.
    • 2012 BNDES, National Economic and Development Bank, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 2012 IBRE/FGV, Economic Brazilian Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 2012 Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, August.
    • 2012, Central Bank of Brasil, Research Department, BACEN, Brasilia, August.
    • 2012 Conference in Honor of Charles Nelson. University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, June.

    • 2011 "The Role of Non-Linear Methods in Empirical Macroeconomics and Forecasting," European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany, September.
    • 2011 "Leading Indicators and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies". Koç University, TUSIAD, Economic Research Forum . Istanbul/Turkey, June.
    • 2011 "Growth and Business Cycle in Theory and Practice," Manchester School, U.K., June.
    • 2011 Conference on Brazil's Economy "From Lula to Dilma", UC Riverside, May.
    • 2010 “32nd Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society. Brazilian Econometric Society." Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, December
    • 2010 "Central Bank Forecasting," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Kansas City, October.
    • 2010 6th Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis, Luxembourg, October.
    • 2010 Workshop on Central Bank Forecasting, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, October (discussant).
    • 2010 IV Oslo Workshop on Economic Policy: "Empirical Business Cycle Modeling and Policy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Norwegian School of Management BI, Olso, Norway, September.
    • 2010 XII Annual Inflation Targeting Seminar of the Banco Central do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, May.
    • 2010 KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Science and Technology University, Zurich, Switzerland, March.
    • 2010 University of Zurich, Dept of Finance, Zurich, Switzerland, March.
    • 2010 University of West Virginia, Dept of Economics, Morgantown, WV, February.
    • 2010 University of Southern California, Dept of Economics, Econometrics Seminar, February.
    • 2010 University of California Irvine, Dept of Economics, February.
    • 2009 University of Southern California, Dept of Economics, Dynamics Seminar, November.
    • 2009 “Times Series Econometrics with Applications to Macroeconomics and Finance 3,” Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, November.
    • 2009  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, November.
    • 2009  CIRANO Fifth Annual Workshop on Macroeconomic Forecasting, Analysis and Policy with Data Revision, Montreal, Canada, October.
    • 2009 Joint Statistical Meetings, American Statistical Association, Washington, D.C., August.
    • 2008 UCR Panel Discussion “Global Financial Crisis,” October.
    • 2008 “Times Series Econometrics with Applications to Macroeconomics and Finance 2,” Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, March.
    • 2007 “Real-Time Data Analysis and Methods in Economics,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, April.
    • 2006 University of Kansas, Department of Economics, November.
    • 2006 Claremont Graduate School, February.
    • 2004 Conference Nonlinearity and the Business Cycle, Washington University in Saint Louis, Missouri, August.  
    • 2004 University of Southern California, Department of Economics, April.
    • 2004 University of California, Riverside, Department of Statistics, February.
    • 2003 Joint Federal Reserve System Committee on Business and Financial Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, November.
    • 2003 Central Bank of Brasil, Research Department, Brasilia, Brazil, August.
    • 2003 International Meeting on Income and Productivity Disparity across Country, FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 2003 University of South Florida, Tampa, April.
    • 2003 All Bank Staff Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, February.
    • 2002 University of California, Davis, December.
    • 2002 Central Bank of Brazil, Economics Department, Brasilia, July.
    • 2002 Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department/Monetary Policy Division, Brasilia, July.
    • 2002 Conference When Does a Downturn Become a Recession? American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., May.
    • 2002 Conference State-Space Models, Regime Switching, and Identification, Washington University and the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Missouri, May.
    • 2002 Claremont McKenna College/Claremont Graduate School, May.
    • 2002 Washington University at Saint Louis, April.
    • 2002 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, February.
    • 2002 University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, January.
    • 2002 University of Kansas, Lawrence, January.
    • 2001 FGV/USP/PUC Macroeconomic Meetings, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 2001 IX Meeting of the Brazilian Statistics Association, School of Time Series & Econometrics (ESTE), Belo Horizonte, Brazil, August.
    • 2001 Arizona State University, Phoenix, April.
    • 2000 OECD/CEPAL/IPEA Conference on Leading Economic Indicators, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December.
    • 2000 Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Statistics Department, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December.
    • 2000 Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December.
    • 2000 Claremont Graduate School, Department of Economics, Claremont, November.
    • 2000 Conference "One Year of Inflation Targeting," Central Bank of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July.
    • 2000 University of California, Riverside, Engineering Department, March.
    • 1999 University of Southern California, Business School, December.
    • 1999 Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil, August.
    • 1999 Catholic Pontific University (PUC), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 1999 Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July.
    • 1999 State University of Maringa, Parana, Brazil, July.
    • 1999 University of Brasilia, Brazil, July.
    • 1999 II International Colloquium in Economic Dynamics and Economic Policy, Brasilia, Brazil, May.
    • 1999 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March.
    • 1997 University of California, Irvine, November.
    • 1997 University of California, San Diego, May.
    • 1997 University of California, Davis, May.
    • 1997 University of California, Santa Barbara, March.
    • 1997 University of Southern California, Economics Department, Los Angeles, March.
    • 1996 University of Southern California, Business School, Los Angeles, May.
    • 1996 Claremont Graduate School, Claremont, March.
    • 1995 I Symposium Brasiliense of Economics, Government of Brasilia/UnB, Brazil, December.
    • 1995 University of Brasilia, Brazil, August.
    • 1995 University of Houston, Department of Economics, March.
    • 1995 University of Miami, Department of Finance, February.
    • 1995 Bank Credit Analyst Research Group, Montreal, February.
    • 1995 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, January.
    • 1995 Price Waterhouse, Los Angeles, January.
    • 1995 Freddie Mac, January.

    Presentation at Conferences

    • 2013 Midwest Econometric Conference, University of Indiana, Bloomington, October.
    • 2013 Allied Social Science Associations, American Economic Association, San Diego, January (discussant).
    • 2012 “87th Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International,” Western Economic Association International, San Francisco, July.
    • 2011 “19th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics,” Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics/George Washington University, Washington, DC, March.
    • 2010 “32nd Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society. Brazilian Econometric Society. Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, December.
    • 2010 30th CIRET Conference - Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, CIRET/Conference Board, New York, October (presenter and discussant).
    • 2010 American Economic Association Meeting, Atlanta (discussant).
    • 2009 17th Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Atlanta Fed, Atlanta, April.
    • 2009 UCR Conference on Business Cycles: Theoretical and Empirical Advances, Riverside, April.
    • 2008 Midwest Econometrics Group meeting, University of Kansas, Lawrence, October.
    • 2008 5th Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis, Luxembourg, October.
    • 2008 23rd Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Milan, Italy, August.
    • 2008 63rd European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Milan, Italy, August.
    • 2008 16th Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, San Francisco, April.
    • 2007 27th International Forecasting Symposium, New York, June.
    • 2007 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, June.
    • 2006 14th Annual Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Saint Louis, Missouri, March.
    • 2005 North American Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society, Philadelphia, January.
    • 2003 North American Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, Washington, D.C., January.
    • 2002 XXIV Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE), Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December.
    • 2002 Conference Common Features in Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July.
    • 2002 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Sao Paulo, Brazil, July.
    • 2002 Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics, New York, June.
    • 2002 North American Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society, Los Angeles, June.
    • 2001 XXIX Meetings of the Brazilian Economic Association (ANPEC), Salvador, Brazil, December.
    • 2001 XXIII Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE), Salvador, Brazil, December.
    • 2001 11th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Missouri, October.
    • 2001 I Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Society, Sao Paulo, Brazil, July.
    • 2001 Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics, Stockholm, Sweden, June.
    • 2000 XXII Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE), Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil, December.
    • 2000 Conference "Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice," University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom, July.
    • 1999 Conference on Nonlinear Modeling of Multivariate Macroeconomic Relations, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, September.
    • 1999 Meeting of the Latin American Econometric Society, Cancun, Mexico, August.
    • 1999 Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics, Sardegna, Italy, June.
    • 1999 Summer Meeting of the North American Econometric Society, Madison, June.
    • 1999 Meeting of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics, New York, March.
    • 1999 North American Meeting of the Econometric Society, New York, January.
    • 1999 American Economic Association Meeting, New York, January.
    • 1998 Summer Meeting, National Bureau of Economic Research, Boston, July.
    • 1998 Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics, Philadelphia, June.
    • 1997 UCSD-UCR Conference, San Diego, April.
    • 1997 North American Meeting of the Econometric Society, New Orleans, January.
    • 1996 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August.
    • 1996 Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control, Mexico City, Mexico, June.
    • 1996 Young Economist Meeting, University of California, Irvine, May.
    Professional Service
     

    Membership

    • Member and Spokesperson, “Brazilian Business Cycle Dating Committee” (CODACE – Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos), Brazil, 2005 - Present.
    • Member, Advisory Board of the Institute for Research on World-Systems, July 2009-Present.
    • Mentor for the AEA/CSWEP, New Orleans, January 2008.
    • Member, Review Panel to select top article published in Brazilian Econometric Reviews in 1999/2000, Prize Adriano Romariz Duarte, 2001.

    Conferences

    • Organizing Committee, 2013 3rd Vale/EPGE Conference "Business Cycles," Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 2013.
    • Program Committee Member, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Milan, Italy, April 2013
    • Co-Organizer, Conference "Global Crisis and Latin American Economies," Centre for Applied Financial Economics (CAFE)
    • USC/UCR - Latin American Studies Program, Los Angeles, November, 2012.
    • Program Committee Member, Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Istanbul, Turkey, April 2012.
    • Program Committee Member, Society for Computational Economics, San Francisco, June 2011.
    • Program Committee Member, 30th International Forecasting Symposium, San Diego, June 2010.
    • Organizer, UCR Conference "Crises and Opportunities in Latin America," Riverside, April 2010.
    • Program Committee Member, UCR Conference "Crises and Opportunities in Latin America," Riverside, April 2010.
    • Co-Organizer, UCR Conference "Business Cycles: Empirical and Theoretical Advances," Riverside, April 2009.
    • Program Committee Member, 27th International Forecasting Symposium, New York, June 2007.
    • Program Committee Member, XXVI Meetings of the Brazilian Econometric Society, Joao Pessoa, Brazil, December 2004.
    • Program Committee Member, Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics, June, Philadelphia, PA, 1998.

    Referee
    Journals: American Economic Review, International Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Econometrics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Development Economics, Empirical Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, International Journal of Business and Economics, Econometric Reviews, Journal of Portfolio Management, Economic Inquiry, Eastern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Journal, Economic Modelling, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Journal of Macroeconomics, The B.E. Journals in Macroeconomics, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Bulletin of Economic Research, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Financial Review, Review of Finance, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Brazilian Review of Econometrics (Revista de Econometria), Brazilian Economic Journal, (Revista Brasileira de Economia), Economic Research and Planning (Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico), Applied Economics, Economic Studies, Journal New Economy (Nova Economia), Journal of Applied Economics.

    Grant Agency: National Science Foundation, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Publisher: McGraw-Hill, Irwin Professional, Pearson.

    Graduate Students 

    Chair, Ph.D. Dissertations
      • Mi Lu, 2013, Ghent University, Belgium, and Fiduciary Research and Consulting, San Francisco
      • Venoo Kakar, 2013, San Francisco State University
      • Rama Kumar, 2013, Chapman University, CA
      • Chandler Lutz, 2011, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark
      • Insu Kim, 2010, Central Bank of Korea
      • Jie Li, 2010, HSBC Finance, San Francisco
      • MeiChi Huang, 2009, National Taipei University, Taiwan (first job at Business School, Yuan Ze University)
      • Zeynep Senyuz, 2008, Federal Reserve Bank, Board of Governors, D.C. (first job at University of New Hampshire)
      • Heather Tierney, 2005, College of Charleston, SC (co-chair)
      • Witsaroot Pariyaprasert, 2005, Assumption University, Thailand (co-chair)
      • Gurleen Popli, 2002, University of Sheffield, UK  (co-chair)
      • Fang Dong, 2002, Providence College, RI
      • Chengxuan Yu, 2001, Siena College and NY State Health Department, NY
      • Yun-Mei Yang, 2003 (MSc, ABD), Taiwan
      • Francisco Figueiredo, 2003, (MSc, ABD) Central Bank of Brazil 

       In progress

      • Najrin Khanom
      • Yi Lu
      • Tasneem Raihan
      • Xuefeng Pan
      • Yinqiao Fan
      • Riyad Abubaker
      • Mehdi Naji
      • Jason Cheng Jiang
      • Chuanlei Sun
      • Yanpin Su
    Member, Ph.D. Dissertation Committee
      • Zhou Xi, 2013, JP Morgan Chase
      • Yingying Sun, 2013, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
      • Yundong Tu, 2012, Peking University, China
      • Emre Yoldas, 2009, Federal Reserve Bank, Board of Governors, D.C. (first job at Bentley University)
      • Zuzana Janko, 2004, University of Calgary, Canada
      • Sherman Ho, 1998, Providian Financial, San Francisco
      • Souhir Slim (Faculté de Droit & des Sciences Economiques and Politiques Cité Erriadh)

      In progress

      • Ru Zhang

    MSc.Thesis Supervised

    • Henrique Pires, MSc from University of Brasilia, Ministry of Finance of Brazil
    • Wenyan Yuan, MA from the University of California Riverside

    Undergraduate Students

    Research Supervised and Awards

    • Annie Zhuo, Awarded UC Undergraduate Minigrant Fellowship, 1998/99
    • Francis Hoang, Awarded UC President’s Undergraduate Fellowship, 1999/00
    • Caroline Lee, Winner of The University of California Senior Student Award, 2000/01

    University Service

    University

    Chair, Latin American Studies Program, 2007 - 2013
    Chair, UCR Extension Center Committee, 2009 - 2011
    Member, Global Studies Major Steering Committee, 2007 - Present
    Member, UCR Extension Center Committee, 2007 - 2009
    Member, Commitee for Latin American Studies, 1998 - Present
    Member, Executive Committee – College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, 2004 - 2006
    Faculty Advisor for the American Marketing Association at UCR, 2004 -2006
    Member, Business Administration Majors Committee, 2003 - 2006
    Member, Registration Fee Committee, 2003 - 2004
    Member, Committee on Preparatory Education, 1998 - 2002
    Faculty Advisor for the American Marketing Association at UCR, 2004 - 2007 

    Department

    Chair, Graduate Affairs Commitee, 2012 - Present
    Member, Graduate Affairs Committee, 2009 - 2012
    Member, Planning and Advisory Committee, 2009 - Present
    Member, Undergraduate Affairs Committee, 2007 - 2009
    Chair, Undergraduate Affairs Committee, 2003 - 2007
    Organizer, Economic Theory Colloquia, all quarters from 1997 - 2000, Spring 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, Fall 2011
    Chair, Macroeconomic Theory Comprehensive Examination Committee, 1998 - 2001, 2003 – 2009 (alternate quarters)
    Member, Macroeconomic Theory Comprehensive Examination Committee, 1995 - Present
    Coordinator, Macroeconomic Theory Core Field, 1999 - 2000, 2003 - 2009
    Member, Search Committee for Macroeconomics Assistant Professor, 2005 - 2006
    Affirmative Action Officer for Search for Macroeconomics Assistant Professor, 2005 - 2006
    Member, Search Committee for International Economics Assistant Professor, 2003 - 2004
    Affirmative Action Officer for Search for International Economics Assistant Professor, 2003 - 2004
    Member, Computer Committee, 2000 - 2002
    Chair, Working Papers Committee, 1999 - 2000
    Member, Library Committee, 1995 - 1999
    Member, Graduate Students Performance Review Committee, 1997 – 1998

    Professional Affiliations

    • American Economic Association
    • American Finance Association
    • North American Econometric Society
    • European Economic Association
    • European Econometric Society
    • Committee on the Status of Women in the Economic Profession
    • Brazilian Econometric Society
    • Regional Council of Economists, Brasilia
     

    Selected Media Coverage

    TV Interview

    • Bloomberg News – Jun/2008
    • Bloomberg News – Mar/2008
    • Globo International (Globo Planet) – Nov/2008 and Dec/2008

    Interview for Magazines

    • Magazine Lola (Editora April – Brazil) Sep/2010
    • Magazine Exame (Editora April – Brazil) Aug/2009
    • Magazine Personnalité (Editora Trip – Brazil) Jul/Sep 2008
    • Magazine 951 – Riverside County, May/Jun 2008

    Interview for Newspapers

    • Folha de São Paulo – Jun 11 & Jun 15/2009
    • Estado de São Paulo – Jun 11/2009
    • Estado de São Paulo  – May 31/2009
    • Globo, Estado de São Paulo, Folha de São Paulo, Jornal do Comércio, Diário do Comércio, Diário do Nordeste, Monitor Mercantil, Gazeta do Povo, Globo,Valor, Invertia, Ansalatina, Yahoo Brasil – May 28/2009
    • Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) – Jun 28/2008
    • Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) – Mar 18/2008
    • Hiram7 Review (Israel) – Mar 9/2008
    • Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) – Feb 6/2008
    • Expresso (Portugal) – Jan 26/2008
    • Expresso (Portugal) – Dec 22/2008
    • Folha de São Paulo (Brazil) – Jun 26/2001

    Articles in Newspapers

    • New York Times  (op-ed, with Kevin Hassett) - Feb 28/2009
    • Gazeta Mercantil and Jornal do Brasil (op-ed, with Mario Garnero) - Jun 31/2008
    • Washington Post, Jan 20/2008
    • Folha de São Paulo, Jornal do Brasil, Correio Popular, Correio Braziliense (op-ed, with Mario Garnero) - Mar 20/2008
    • New York Times, Dec 16/2007 (op-ed, with Kevin Hassett)

    Languages

    • Fluent in Portuguese, English, and Spanish; intermediate level in French.
    Comments