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I am a senior economist at the Research Department of the Central Bank of Chile.

I did my Ph.D. at CEMFI, under the supervision of Manuel Arellano  and Stephane Bonhomme 

My research interests are econometrics of panel data and applied macroeconomics with a particular interest in modeling latent productivities, production function estimation, and modeling error dependence.


You can see my CV HERE . 


I develop a flexible framework to jointly estimate the aggregate capital-labor elasticity of substitution and the labor- and capital- augmenting technologies from a panel of production functions and use it to shed light on the global decline of the labor share and development accounting. In contrast to previous studies, my framework considers unobserved country heterogeneity in the parameters. I use nonlinear factor models to control for time-varying unobserved labor- and capital- augmenting technologies that might be correlated with the production function’s inputs. Estimation is based on posterior distributions in a Bayesian fixed effects framework. I find evidence of substantial country heterogeneity in the elasticity of substitution, with a mean of 0.90. The bias in technical change is the dominant mechanism in explaining the labor share decline in most countries. However, the increase in capital accumulation is also an important mechanism for some countries. Finally, I find evidence to support directed technical change models. 
 

 Revision requested at Journal of Applied Econometrics
This paper studies alternative approaches to consider time and spatial dependence in aggregate panel models where neither N nor T is very large, a problem that applied researchers often face when working with country- or state-level panel data. I show that the variance of the two-way cluster standard errors (2CCE) is affected by both types of dependence. Therefore, when neither N nor T is large, these standard errors could be poorly estimated and thus unreliable. As a consequence tests based on the 2CCE might perform poorly in terms of rejection rates, even in panels with a moderate sample size. I show that the cluster estimator can be expressed as a fully flexible panel version of the spatial autoregressive model. Then, it is possible to exploit that insight and use some prior knowledge about the dependence to estimate more parsimonious models that deliver more precise standard errors. In a calibrated Monte Carlo exercise using state minimum wage data, I show that using a panel version of the spatial model yields substantially better results than using the 2CCE when N and T are as small as 50 and 30. Finally, I study the implications of considering both types of dependence within a state-year panel data of wage inequality and minimum wages in the US. When both types of error dependence are considered, the marginal effect of the minimum wage over wage inequality is no longer significant.


We assess the contribution of changes in the investment rate along the process of development on the sectoral composition of growing economies. We propose a new and simple mechanism where the difference in sectoral intensities between final investment and final consumption goods combined with changes in the investment rate lead to sectoral reallocation. We present three novel facts consistent with this idea: (a) the value added share of manufacturing within investment goods is larger than within consumption goods, (b) the standard hump-shaped profile of manufacturing with development is much more apparent for the whole economy than for the investment and consumption goods separately, and (c) the investment rate displays a hump with development similar to the one of the value added share of manufacturing. Using a standard multi-sector growth model estimated with a large panel of countries, we find that this mechanism is especially important for the industrialization of several countries since the 1950’s and for the deindustrialization of many Western economies since the 1970’s. In addition, it explains a substantial part of the standard hump-shaped relationship between manufacturing and development, which has been a challenge for theories of structural transformation under balanced growth. Finally, the different composition of investment and consumption goods can also explain up to half of the decline in the relative price of investment since 1980.

 

 

 

 







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