世界正在经历灾难性6 °上升,科学家揭示


 World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists


世界正在经历灾难性6 °上升,科学家揭示

快速上升的二氧化碳排放量意味着气候变化的最坏情况的预测正在变成现实

由史蒂夫康纳和迈克尔麦卡锡 

星期三,09年11月18日

A Spanish reservoir suffers from drought

法新社

西班牙水库遭受旱灾

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世界在气候变化方面正在稳定地向最坏的情况发展,到本世纪末平均全球气温将增加6C,著名科学家昨天说。 这种上升-在两极周围的地区上升更快-将给地球带来灾难性的和不可逆转的后果,使地球上许多地区无法居住,威胁到人类文明的基础。

我们正在向这个方向前进,科学家们说,由于来自工业,交通和森林砍伐对大气变暖负责的二氧化碳排放量的急剧增加,自2002年以来的方式,任何人预期,并正在运行,每年三倍20世纪90年代率。

这意味着,根据31个研究人员在涉及7个国家所做全球碳项目研究,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会在2007年出版的报告所描述的最极端的情形将是现在社会正在朝其发展的情形,。

虽然了6C崛起,其潜在的灾难性后果一直呼吁在猜测,这是第一次,科学家们说,社会上现在的道路,以满足它。

他们的抗寒和显着的预测扔进鲜明的下月在哥本哈根举行的联合国气候会议的重要性在国际社会将联合起来,尝试构建一个新的协议,将得到控制气候变暖。

它不能来得很快,来判断全球碳计划研究教授奎里,在东英吉利亚大学和英国南极调查,结果发现出现了增长百分之二十九,在领导的结果,全球从2000年至2008年,最后一年有数字可查的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量。

平均而言,研究人员发现,有一对刚刚超过百分之三期间排放量每年增加,则为百分之1 1990年至2000年每年增加。 几乎所有增加这10年都出现在2000年以后,从我国经济繁荣带来了。 研究人员预测小幅下降今年以来,由于经济衰退,但是从2010年进一步增加。

总的来说,从化石燃料燃烧二氧化碳排放量增加了百分之四十一1990年至2008年,但在1990年全球排放量的参考水平的京都议定书的国家正在试图减少自己的排放量低于规定的条款。

了6C目前预期增长形成鲜明对照的C上升,在所有的国际气候变化政策,包括英国和欧盟,希望稳定变暖- 2度被视为气候变化的阈值看到这对社会的危险与自然的。

在乐奎教授和她的同事在自然地球科学杂志发表研究报告,设想的数字高得多。 “我们在该会的情景高端了,”她说。

乐奎教授说,哥本哈根是来到了一个全球性协议,遏制碳上一个时间过程,希望它能稳定温度上升到二氧化碳排放量的最后一次机会在危险临界点。“哥本哈根会议将于下月在我看来是最后的机会稳定在上述前C气候顺利,有组织地产业层次,”她说。

“如果协议是太弱,或不尊重的承诺,它不是2.5C或3C认证,我们将获得:这是5澳或6C条-这是我们的道路上。这里的时间表非常紧张,需要的是什么在C稳定的气候,“她说。

同时,科学家们首次发现了一种对地球的自然承受能力的人失败了二氧化碳释放到空气中。

他们发现了明显的证据表明更多的人为的二氧化碳在大气中停留加剧温室效应,因为天然的“碳汇”已吸收了过去几十年在陆地和海洋它开始失败,由于上升的结果可能是全球性温度。

二氧化碳的量,大气中的结果仍增加了约百分之四十,1990年占45于2008年。 这意味着汇开始失败,他们说。

乐奎教授强调,仍然有许多不确定因素,碳汇,如海洋的承受能力溶解二氧化碳,但所有的证据表明,现在有一种“”积极的反馈循环,即增加二氧化碳的排放量领先气温上升和二氧化碳在大气层中的相应增加。

“目前我们的理解,在我们使用的计算机模型-他们是最先进的国家-表明,碳循环的气候反馈已经踢了,”她说。

“这些模型,如果你计划到本世纪他们就,相当大的反馈显示,有放大5至百分之30和百分之全球气候变暖。仍有很大的不确定性,但这是碳循环气候的反馈,已经开始,“她说。

研究还发现,对于20世纪60年代以来的第一次,人类大量燃烧煤炭已经超过了石油,碳的主要来源,由化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放。

该煤矿的大部分被烧毁了中国生产出售给西方货物-是科学家们估计,占中国排放量的百分之四十五的产品决策,导致海外上市。

很明显,中国,具有超越世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国美国,必须成为任何新的气候协议,所以从中美两国领导人昨天发表的公报普遍抓住了一个迹象,表明有可能取得进展在丹麦首都下个月。

6度增加:后果

如果两度一般作为危险的气候变化的临界值,很明显,6度的全球平均气温上升必将是非常危险的,迈克尔麦卡锡写到。 只要是多么危险的信号于2007年由科学作家马克莱纳斯谁精梳所有可用的科学研究,建设一个世界气温图片3倍的限额较高的危险。

他的判决是,在这种规模的“温度上升会推入一个极端的温室不近亿年看到状态,当恐龙极地雨林和进入欧洲心脏达成沙漠擦过地球”。

他说:“这将导致几乎所有的生命和人类可能减少一些挣扎在坚持两极附近的生活陷入困境的幸存者群体灭绝。”

极少数品种能够及时适应过渡唐突,他建议。 随着热带“太热了种植农作物,以及亚热带太干,数十亿人会发现这个星球,基本上居住地区的行列。这可能甚至还包括欧洲南部,如撒哈拉大沙漠穿越地中海。

由于冰“,融化,数亿人也将被迫迁往内地,由于迅速海平面作为世界粮食供应崩溃。,较高的中纬度和亚极地地区将成为竞争激烈的庇护所。

“不列颠群岛,事实上,可能成为房地产最可取的这个星球上的一个部分。但是一亿元,对我们的敲门几个人,事情可能很快变成比较难看。”

World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists

Fast-rising carbon emissions mean that worst-case predictions for climate change are coming true

By Steve Connor and Michael McCarthy

Wednesday, 18 November 2009

A Spanish reservoir suffers from drought

AFP

A Spanish reservoir suffers from drought

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The world is now firmly on course for the worst-case scenario in terms of climate change, with average global temperatures rising by up to 6C by the end of the century, leading scientists said yesterday. Such a rise – which would be much higher nearer the poles – would have cataclysmic and irreversible consequences for the Earth, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable and threatening the basis of human civilisation.

We are headed for it, the scientists said, because the carbon dioxide emissions from industry, transport and deforestation which are responsible for warming the atmosphere have increased dramatically since 2002, in a way which no one anticipated, and are now running at treble the annual rate of the 1990s.

This means that the most extreme scenario envisaged in the last report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in 2007, is now the one for which society is set, according to the 31 researchers from seven countries involved in the Global Carbon Project.

Although the 6C rise and its potential disastrous effects have been speculated upon before, this is the first time that scientists have said that society is now on a path to meet it.

Their chilling and remarkable prediction throws into sharp relief the importance of next month's UN climate conference in Copenhagen, where the world community will come together to try to construct a new agreement to bring the warming under control.

For the past month there has been a lowering of expectations about the conference, not least because the US may not be ready to commit itself to cuts in its emissions. But yesterday President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao of China issued a joint communiqué after a meeting in Beijing, which reignited hopes that a serious deal might be possible after all.

It cannot come too soon, to judge by the results of the Global Carbon Project study, led by Professor Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, which found that there has been a 29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008, the last year for which figures are available.

On average, the researchers found, there was an annual increase in emissions of just over 3 per cent during the period, compared with an annual increase of 1 per cent between 1990 and 2000. Almost all of the increase this decade occurred after 2000 and resulted from the boom in the Chinese economy. The researchers predict a small decrease this year due to the recession, but further increases from 2010.

In total, CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have increased by 41 per cent between 1990 and 2008, yet global emissions in 1990 are the reference level set by the Kyoto Protocol, which countries are trying to fall below in terms of their own emissions.

The 6C rise now being anticipated is in stark contrast to the C rise at which all international climate policy, including that of Britain and the EU, hopes to stabilise the warming – two degrees being seen as the threshold of climate change which is dangerous for society and the natural world.

The study by Professor Le Quéré and her team, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, envisages a far higher figure. "We're at the top end of the IPCC scenario," she said.

Professor Le Quéré said that Copenhagen was the last chance of coming to a global agreement that would curb carbon-dioxide emissions on a time-course that would hopefully stabilise temperature rises to within the danger threshold. "The Copenhagen conference next month is in my opinion the last chance to stabilise climate at C above pre-industrial levels in a smooth and organised way," she said.

"If the agreement is too weak, or the commitments not respected, it is not 2.5C or 3C we will get: it's 5C or 6C – that is the path we're on. The timescales here are extremely tight for what is needed to stabilise the climate at C," she said.

Meanwhile, the scientists have for the first time detected a failure of the Earth's natural ability to absorb man-made carbon dioxide released into the air.

They found significant evidence that more man-made CO2 is staying in the atmosphere to exacerbate the greenhouse effect because the natural "carbon sinks" that have absorbed it over previous decades on land and sea are beginning to fail, possibly as a result of rising global temperatures.

The amount of CO2 that has remained in the atmosphere as a result has increased from about 40 per cent in 1990 to 45 per cent in 2008. This suggests that the sinks are beginning to fail, they said.

Professor Le Quéré emphasised that there are still many uncertainties over carbon sinks, such as the ability of the oceans to absorb dissolved CO2, but all the evidence suggests that there is now a cycle of "positive feedbacks", whereby rising carbon dioxide emissions are leading to rising temperatures and a corresponding rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"Our understanding at the moment in the computer models we have used – and they are state of the art – suggests that carbon-cycle climate feedback has already kicked in," she said.

"These models, if you project them on into the century, show quite large feedbacks, with climate amplifying global warming by between 5 per cent and 30 per cent. There are still large uncertainties, but this is carbon-cycle climate feedback that has already started," she said.

The study also found that, for the first time since the 1960s, the burning of coal has overtaken the burning of oil as the major source of carbon-dioxide emissions produced by fossil fuels.

Much of this coal was burned by China in producing goods sold to the West – the scientists estimate that 45 per cent of Chinese emissions resulted from making products traded overseas.

It is clear that China, having overtaken the US as the world's biggest carbon emitter, must be central to any new climate deal, and so the communiqué from the Chinese and US leaders issued yesterday was widely seized on as a sign that progress may be possible in the Danish capital next month.

Presidents Hu and Obama specifically said an accord should include emission-reduction targets for rich nations, and a declaration of action plans to ease greenhouse-gas emissions in developing countries – key elements in any deal.

6C rise: The consequences

If two degrees is generally accepted as the threshold of dangerous climate change, it is clear that a rise of six degrees in global average temperatures must be very dangerous indeed, writes Michael McCarthy. Just how dangerous was signalled in 2007 by the science writer Mark Lynas, who combed all the available scientific research to construct a picture of a world with temperatures three times higher than the danger limit.

His verdict was that a rise in temperatures of this magnitude "would catapult the planet into an extreme greenhouse state not seen for nearly 100 million years, when dinosaurs grazed on polar rainforests and deserts reached into the heart of Europe".

He said: "It would cause a mass extinction of almost all life and probably reduce humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles."

Very few species could adapt in time to the abruptness of the transition, he suggested. "With the tropics too hot to grow crops, and the sub-tropics too dry, billions of people would find themselves in areas of the planet which are essentially uninhabitable. This would probably even include southern Europe, as the Sahara desert crosses the Mediterranean.

"As the ice-caps melt, hundreds of millions will also be forced to move inland due to rapidly-rising seas. As world food supplies crash, the higher mid-latitude and sub-polar regions would become fiercely-contested refuges.

"The British Isles, indeed, might become one of the most desirable pieces of real estate on the planet. But, with a couple of billion people knocking on our door, things might quickly turn rather ugly."