Leander Heldring

 
I will be available for interview at the ASSA Annual Meeting in San Diego and the European Job Market in Rotterdam.

Current affiliation
Post-doctoral fellow, Institute on Behavior & Inequality (briq) Bonn
 
Research Interests 
Political Economy, Economic Development, Economic History


JOB MARKET PAPER


    In this paper we show that states form to overcome the adverse effects of environmental change. In a panel dataset of settlement, state formation, and public good provision in southern Iraq between 5000BCE and today, we estimate the effect of a series of river shifts. We hypothesize that a river shift creates a collective action problem in communally organizing irrigation, and creates demand for a state. We show four main results. First, a river shift negatively affects settlement density, and therefore incentives canal irrigation. Second, a river shift leads to state formation, centralization of existing states, and the construction of administrative buildings. Third, these states raise taxes, and build canals to replace river irrigation. Finally, where canals are built, river shifts no longer negatively affect settlement. Our results support a social contract theory of state formation: citizens faced with a collective action problem exchange resources and autonomy for public good provision.

PAPERS

Conditionally Accepted at The Review of Economic Studies
Leander Heldring
February 2018

This paper shows that the intensity of violence in Rwanda's recent past can be traced back to the initial establishment of its precolonial state. Villages that were brought under centralized rule one century earlier experience a doubling of violence during the state-organized 1994 genocide. Instrumental variable estimates exploiting differences in proximity to Nyanza -- an early capital -- suggest these effects are causal. In other periods, when the state faced rebel attacks, with longer state presence, violence is lower. Using data from several sources, including a lab-in-the-field experiment across an abandoned historical boundary, I show that the effect of the historical state is primarily sustained by culturally transmitted norms of obedience. The persistent effect of the precolonial state interacts with government policy: Where the state developed earlier, there is more violence when the Rwandan government mobilized for mass killing and less violence when the government pursued peace.

Leander Heldring
October 2019

This paper studies effective government under changing policy objectives. I compare former Prussian parts of Germany to non-Prussian parts in a geographical regression discontinuity framework, during the Weimar republic and the Nazi regime. During the Weimar republic, violence against Jews is lower in former Prussian areas, whereas during the Nazi period, deportations of Jews are implemented more efficiently. Consistent with the notion that the Prussian state was highly effective, I show that Prussian areas are more effective at raising taxes and spend more on policy implementation under both the Weimar republic and the Nazi regime. After the Allies centralized public finance, former Prussian areas do not raise more taxes. I finally provide evidence for a `cog in the wheel' interpretation of the German bureaucracy: Prussian areas have a more specialized bureaucracy which increases efficiency but also leads to `diffusion of responsibility'. German bureaucracy was a tool for its politicians, and the effect of a strong state on development therefore varies with policy.

Leander Heldring
James A. Robinson
Sebastian Vollmer
August 2017
[Media Coverage: VOXeu.org]

     We examine the long-run economic impact of the Dissolution of the English monasteries in 1535, which is plausibly linked to the commercialization of agriculture and the location of the Industrial Revolution. Using monastic income at the parish level as our explanatory variable, we show that parishes which the Dissolution impacted more had more textile mills and employed a greater share of population outside agriculture, had more gentry and agricultural patent holders, and were more likely to be enclosed. Our results extend Tawney’s famous ‘rise of the gentry’ thesis by linking social change to the Industrial Revolution.


Robert C. Allen
Leander Heldring
October 2018

     The rise of the West involved a reversal of fortune between Europe and the Middle East. The latter was ascendant during the 7th-9th centuries when the economy, science, and learning flourished in Baghdad during the Golden Age of Islam. This efflorescence ended in the late 9th century as state capacity, rural settlement, agriculture, and urbanization all collapsed. This paper develops a model of hydraulic society to provide an integrated account of this collapse and calibrates it to assess the magnitudes. Cross sections of tax collection data for 28 districts in southern Mesopotamia in 812, 846, and 918 are analysed to empirically verify the connections among key variables. The proximate cause of the crisis was the collapse in state capacity which meant that the state no longer maintained the irrigation system. A particularly destructive succession struggle determined the timing of the crisis.

PUBLICATIONS

Leander Heldring
James A. Robinson
in Carol Lancaster and Nicolas Van de Walle eds. Handbook on the Politics of Development, Oxford University Press. 
[Media Coverage: VOXeu.org]

     In this paper we evaluate the impact of colonialism on development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the world context, colonialism had very heterogeneous effects, operating through many mechanisms, sometimes encouraging development sometimes retarding it. In the African case, however, this heterogeneity is muted, making an assessment of the average effect more interesting. We emphasize that to draw conclusions it is necessary not just to know what actually happened to development during the colonial period, but also to take a view on what might have happened without colonialism and also to take into account the legacy of colonialism. We argue that in the light of plausible counterfactuals, colonialism probably had a uniformly negative effect on development in Africa. To develop this claim we distinguish between three sorts of colonies: (1) those which coincided with a pre-colonial centralized state, (2) those of white settlement, (3) the rest. Each have distinct performance within the colonial period, different counterfactuals and varied legacies.

WORKS IN PROGRESS

Industrialization and Inequality
Cara Ebert
Leander Heldring
James A. Robinson
Sebastian Vollmer

The Enclosure Movement in England
Leander Heldring
James A. Robinson
Sebastian Vollmer

Dependency
Melissa Dell
Leander Heldring
James A. Robinson