Scenario Planning

What is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a process to better prepare managers to sustain land health in the face of an uncertain future in which climate and other drivers such as agency budgets and regional economies may be different than they are today. Las Cienegas Scenario Planning is designed to build on long-standing adaptive management and collaboration in and around the Las Cienegas National Conservation Area, to involve additional partners from adjacent lands, and to boost our ability to anticipate and prepare for changes that we cannot control.

Scenario Planning Phase 1 has begun for Cienega Watershed partners.  Two workshops were completed in February 2013.  Phase 1 will identify key climatic and other variables and develop four to six very different scenarios, risky but plausible variables. Scenarios are time-evolving narratives which express the potential impacts of these key climate factors on the Cienega Watershed system, including its natural and cultural resources. 

Who is Involved

Phase 1 captures the expertise of those watershed partners who form the ongoing technical teams initiated by the BLM for the LCNCA in 2010 with expertise in riparian, upland, heritage and landscape issues, as well as other interested agencies, organizations and individuals:

University of Arizona CLIMAS Center (team lead), The Nature Conservancy, BLM Tucson, Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP), Pima County, US Fish and Wildlife Service, UA School of Natural Resources, Pima Association of Governments, Saguaro National Park, The Audubon-Whittell Research Ranch, Coronado National Forest, Sky Island Alliance, Southwest Decision Resources. The process is open to all interested.

Steering Committee: Holly Hartmann and Kiyomi Morino, CLIMAS; Gita Bodner, TNC; Amy Markstien, BLM; Shela McFarlin, CWP

Next Steps - March through June 2013 include:

  • April 10: Conduct scenario planning in a one-day workshop with four resource teams (Montane, Upland, Riparian and Cultural) to identify key issues, drivers, and variables.
  • June 8: Vet scenarios, individually and across resource areas and present results to the stakeholders at the Science on the Sonoita Plain symposium.
  • Report on results and flesh out details of plans for the next phases
Past Meeting Agendas and Notes
  see below

Resources
  Holly Hartmann's presentation on 12/1/11:  click here

Post-Workshop Survey Results
  Participant survey to assess interest in and suggestions for
  a SP process in Las Cienegas - click here


Holly Hartmann, UA, presenting on scenario planning during the 2011 State of the
Watershed workshop (Dec 1, 2011)
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Post-Meeting organizing team call to review survey results and plan next steps (1/9/12)  107k v. 1 Jan 10, 2012, 8:25 AM Tahnee Robertson
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2011 State of the Watershed Workshop DRAFT Notes - focus on Scenario Planning (Dec 1, 2011)  132k v. 1 Jan 10, 2012, 8:09 AM Tahnee Robertson