The Bracket-Maker
 

 Here's how it works:

You type in a percentage in either the box labeled "Score Chgr" or "Win Chgr." You can do both, but that makes things go a little crazy.

 REMEMBER: EACH TIME YOU TYPE SOMETHING IN, or HIT F9, THE BRACKETS WILL RE-RANDOMIZE.

There are two ways you can randomize your bracket:


1) By allowing a random change in point margin.
This method is LESS RANDOM than the other (unless you go above 100%)
.

This takes the predicted point margin, and then randomizes the outcome based on both teams' standard deviation of predicted and actual scoring. The percent determines what % of the standard deviation to choose from in randomizing.

For example:

If Arizona State were to play North Carolina, I predict them to lose by 3.5 points. But using this randomizer at 100%, the program picks a random number within 1 standard deviation of this score--The two teams' average standard deviation of scoring is around 12 points, so it adds a random number to this point margin between 12 and -12. If I had set the Score Changer to 50%, it would only have chosen a number between around 6 and -6. And in one iteration at 100% that I have, Arizona State wins by 1 point.


2)  By allowing a random change in who moves on to the next round.
This method is MORE RANDOM than the other.


This one is a bit simpler to understand. My predicted point margin gives each team a % chance of winning based on their consistency. The program then randomly chooses a winner based on the probability.


For example, at 100% in the Win-Changer box (and 0 in the Score-Changer box), North Carolina has a 72% chance of beating Purdue (whose chance of winning is 28%). The system then picks a random percentage (between 0 and 1). If that number lies below 28% then ASU would move on. If not, the higher-percentage team, North Carolina, would move on.


At 50%, the chances of winning are simply exaggerated 50% towards letting the 'better' team win, and at 0%, the 'better' team always wins.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember, if you use both of these tools, at the same time, it randomizes both the point margin and the expected winner.
Personally, I wouldn't use them both at very high percents. Just fiddle around with it, and it will spit out a beautiful bracket.

(This below is not an example of a very good bracket, but a very random one).