Karsten Müller
PhD Candidate, University of Warwick


The University of Warwick
Warwick Business School
Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

I am a PhD candidate in the Business and Management Programme at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. My research interest is in empirical corporate finance and international macroeconomics, with a focus on credit markets.

I am looking for a postdoc or research position at a policy institution and will be available for interviews at the 2018 ASSA meetings in Philadelphia.


"Sectoral Credit Around the World, 1940-2014"

Summary: I present a large novel database on sectoral credit for 108 countries from 1940 through 2014. The loan portfolio of financial institutions has shifted from manufacturing credit to household credit over the past 70 years, both in advanced and emerging economies. Credit growth to households as well as construction and non-tradable industries is associated
with future banking crises, while manufacturing or agricultural lending have zero predictive ability.


"Electoral Cycles in Prudential Regulation"


Summary: There is a robust and sizeable electoral cycle in the use of (macro)prudential tools around 217 elections in 58 countries from 2000 to 2014, particularly for targeted sectoral tools  that most likely impact the median voter. In contrast to monetary policy, central bank independence does not appear to mediate the cycle in prudential regulation.

"Busy Bankruptcy Courts and the Cost of Credit"

Summary: Quasi-random shocks to the caseload of US bankruptcy judges have quantitatively important effects on ex-ante credit spreads and contract maturities, which implies non-negligible costs of judicial inefficiency.

Summary: Right-wing anti-refugee sentiment on Facebook predicts violent crimes against refugees in Germany. Evidence from internet and Facebook outages support the view that part of this reflects a causal effect of social media on hate crimes.

"Making America Hate Again? Twitter and Hate Crime under Trump"
(with Carlo Schwarz)

Summary: Anti-Muslim hate crimes in the United States have increased disproportionally in counties with many Twitter users since Donald Trump's presidential campaign. This stands out in historical comparison: there were not more such crimes in areas with higher Twitter usage during previous presidencies since 1990. Consistent with a role for social media, Trump's tweets on Islam-related topics are highly correlated with weekly variation in anti-Muslim hate crimes after, but not before his campaign start.

"Bank Branching Deregulation and the Syndicated Loan Market" (R&R, JFQA)
(with Jan Keil)

Summary: Allowing banks to build branching networks across state borders in the US led to a substitution of syndicated for direct bilateral loans, which suggests that geographical risk diversification is a major rationale for loan syndication.


"The Eurodollar Shock"
(with Amir Sufi and Atif Mian)

"Sectoral Financial Cycles"

"Natural Disaster Shocks and International Trade"
Ben Charoenwong)