Karsten Müller
Postdoctoral Research Associate, Princeton University

Princeton University
The Julis-Rabinowitz Center
for Public Policy and Finance
213 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building
Princeton, NJ 08544

I am a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance at Princeton University. I completed my PhD at Warwick Business School in 2018.

I work on the intersection of finance, macroeconomics, and political economy.


"Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation"

[SSRN] [Older version: ESRB WP 106] [BibTeX]
Shortlisted for the ESRB Ieke van den Burg Prize 2019

Selected media coverage: ProMarket, The Grumpy Economist, FAZ Blog

Summary: There is a robust electoral cycle in the use of macroprudential tools—
policies that are supposed to curtail the risks of future financial crises. This cycle is particularly strong during credit booms, probably because it is politically difficult to cut off voters from mortgages.

"Busy Bankruptcy Courts and the Cost of Credit"
Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Financial Economics

Selected media coverage: Oxford Business Law Blog

Summary: Quasi-random shocks to the caseload of US bankruptcy judges have quantitatively important effects on ex-ante credit spreads and contract maturities by increasing recovery values for creditors.

"From Hashtag to Hate Crime: Twitter and Anti-Minority Sentiment"

Summary: By reinforcing existing tensions, social media likely contributed to the recent increase of anti-minority sentiment in the United States around Donald Trump's political rise.

"Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime"
(with Carlo Schwarz),
Revise and Resubmit, Journal of the European Economic Association
[SSRN] [BibTeX] [CAGE WP 373]

Summary: Right-wing anti-refugee sentiment on Facebook predicts violent crimes against refugees in Germany. Evidence from internet and Facebook outages support the view that part of this reflects a causal effect of social media on hate crimes.

"Credit Markets Around the World, 1910-2014"
[SSRN] [BibTeX]

Summary: I document a number of new stylized facts about the long-run development of credit markets based on a large, sectorally disaggregated database on credit for 120 countries for 1940 through 2014.

Invited book chapter for publication by INET and University of Cambridge Press

Summary: Based on the existing literature and some results from ongoing work, I argue that the allocation of credit—rather than its mere quantity—is likely key to understanding linkages between finance and the macroeconomy.


Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2020), 55(4), 1269-1303.
[SSRN] [BibTeX]

Summary: Allowing banks to build branching networks across state borders in the US led to a substitution of syndicated for direct bilateral loans, which suggests that diversifying geographical risks is an important rationale for why commercial banks syndicate loans.