Karsten Müller
PhD Candidate, University of Warwick


The University of Warwick
Warwick Business School
Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

I am a PhD candidate in the Business and Management Programme at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. My research interest is in empirical corporate finance and international macroeconomics, with a focus on credit markets.

I am looking for a postdoc or research position at a policy institution and will be available for interviews at the 2018 ASSA meetings in Philadelphia.


"Sectoral Credit Around the World, 1940-2014"

Summary: I present a large novel database on sectoral credit for 108 countries from 1940 through 2014. The loan portfolio of financial institutions has shifted from manufacturing credit to household credit over the past 70 years, both in advanced and emerging economies. Credit growth to households as well as construction and non-tradable industries is associated
with future banking crises, while manufacturing or agricultural lending have zero predictive ability.


(with Jan Keil)

Summary: Allowing banks to build branching networks across state borders in the US led to a substitution of syndicated for direct bilateral loans, which suggests that geographical risk diversification is a major rationale for loan syndication.

"Busy Bankruptcy Courts and the Cost of Credit"

Summary: Quasi-random shocks to the caseload of US bankruptcy judges have quantitatively important effects on ex-ante credit spreads and contract maturities, which implies non-negligible costs of judicial inefficiency.

Summary: Right-wing anti-refugee sentiment on Facebook predicts violent crimes against refugees in Germany. We find similar evidence for the US, where President Trump's twitter activity is associated with hate crimes against the minorities targeted in his tweets, but not other minorities.


"The Eurodollar Shock"
(with Amir Sufi and Atif Mian)

"Sectoral Financial Cycles"

"Natural Disaster Shocks and International Trade"
Ben Charoenwong)