Karsten Müller
PhD Candidate, University of Warwick


The University of Warwick
Warwick Business School
Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

I am a PhD candidate in the Business and Management Programme at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. Currently, I also serve as a project officer at the International Monetary Fund. My main research interests are in empirical corporate finance, international macroeconomics, and political economy.

I will join the Macro-Finance Lab at Princeton University's Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in September 2018.


"Sectoral Credit Around the World, 1940-2014"

Summary: I present a large novel database on sectoral credit for 108 countries from 1940 through 2014. The loan portfolio of financial institutions has shifted from manufacturing credit to household credit over the past 70 years, both in advanced and emerging economies. Credit growth to households as well as construction and non-tradable industries is associated with future banking crises, while manufacturing or agricultural lending have zero predictive ability.

"Electoral Cycles in Prudential Regulation"


Selected media coverage: ProMarket

Summary: There is a robust and sizeable electoral cycle in the use of (macro)prudential tools around 217 elections in 58 countries from 2000 to 2014, particularly for targeted sectoral tools  that most likely impact the median voter. In contrast to monetary policy, central bank independence does not appear to moderate the cycle in prudential regulation.

Selected media coverage: Oxford Business Law Blog

Summary: Quasi-random shocks to the caseload of US bankruptcy judges have quantitatively important effects on ex-ante credit spreads and contract maturities, which implies non-negligible costs of judicial inefficiency.
Top paper on SSRN - Weeks of 8/28 and 9/6/2018

Summary: Right-wing anti-refugee sentiment on Facebook predicts violent crimes against refugees in Germany. Evidence from internet and Facebook outages support the view that part of this reflects a causal effect of social media on hate crimes.

"Making America Hate Again? Twitter and Hate Crime under Trump"

Summary: Anti-Muslim hate crimes in the United States have increased disproportionally in counties with many Twitter users since Donald Trump's presidential campaign. This stands out in historical comparison: there were not more such crimes in areas with higher Twitter usage during previous presidencies since 1990. Trump's tweets on Islam-related topics are highly correlated with weekly variation in anti-Muslim hate crimes after, but not before his campaign start.

"Bank Branching Deregulation and the Syndicated Loan Market" (R&R, JFQA)
(with Jan Keil)

Summary: Allowing banks to build branching networks across state borders in the US led to a substitution of syndicated for direct bilateral loans, which suggests that geographical risk diversification is a major rationale for loan syndication.


"The Eurodollar Shock"
(with Amir Sufi and Atif Mian)

"Sectoral Financial Cycles"

"Idiosyncratic Shocks and International Production Networks"
Ben Charoenwong)