Karsten Müller
Postdoctoral Research Associate, Princeton University

Princeton University
The Julis-Rabinowitz Center
for Public Policy and Finance
213 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building
Princeton, NJ 08544

I am a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance at Princeton University. I completed my PhD at Warwick Business School in 2018.

I work on the intersection of finance, macroeconomics, and political economy.


(An earlier version circulated as "Making America Hate Again? Twitter and Hate Crime under Trump".)

Summary: We study whether social media can reinforce hatred of minorities, with a focus on Donald Trump's political rise. We use an identification strategy based on the random component of early Twitter adoption to show that anti-Muslim sentiment has increased disproportionally in counties with high social media usage since Donald Trump's presidential campaign. Trump's tweets on Islam-related topics are highly correlated with spikes in anti-Muslim hate crimes, which also holds in an instrumental variable framework exploiting that Trump is more likely to tweet about Muslims on days when he golfs.

"Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation"


Selected media coverage: ProMarket

Summary: There is a robust and sizeable electoral cycle in the use of macroprudential tools around 212 elections in 58 countries from 2000 to 2014, particularly for targeted sectoral tools  that most likely impact the median voter. In contrast to monetary policy, central bank independence does not appear to moderate the cycle in prudential regulation.

Selected media coverage: Oxford Business Law Blog

Summary: Quasi-random shocks to the caseload of US bankruptcy judges have quantitatively important effects on ex-ante credit spreads and contract maturities. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that congested courts have large social costs.

Summary: Right-wing anti-refugee sentiment on Facebook predicts violent crimes against refugees in Germany. Evidence from internet and Facebook outages support the view that part of this reflects a causal effect of social media on hate crimes.


Summary: I document a number of new stylized facts about the long-run development of credit markets based on a large, sectorally disaggregated database on credit for 120 countries for 1940 through 2014. I also provide some evidence on why household credit may have risen dramatically both in advanced and emerging economies.


Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, accepted for publication

Summary: Allowing banks to build branching networks across state borders in the US led to a substitution of syndicated for direct bilateral loans, which suggests that geographical risk diversification is an important rationale for loan syndication.


"The Eurodollar Shock"
(with Atif Mian and Amir Sufi)