Dr Joshy Z. Easaw
Economics Section, Cardiff Business School
Cardiff University, Aberconway Building
Colum Drive, Cardiff CF10 3E
Email address: EasawJ1@cardiff.ac.uk
Short Bio:
Educated at the universities of Oxford, Essex, Glasgow and Leicester. Previously held tenured (permanent) positions at the universities of Bath and Swansea.
Teach courses at undergraduate and postgraduate (Masters and PhD) levels in Macroeconomics, Development Economics, Financial Economics and Political Economy.
Successfully completed six PhD supervision in the areas of macroeconomic, political economy and development economics. My PhD students are currently employed in academia (University of Manchester, Taiwan and China) and as professional economist (World Bank)  

Research interests:
i. Macroeconomic Theory and Modelling:
  • Bounded rationality

  • Microfoundations of how households form subjective macro (or aggregate) expectations:

  • Professional forecasters’ inattentiveness

  • Households forming expectations through ‘social learning’ in a spatial context.

  • Spatial volatility and its impact on convergence. 

ii. Political Economy and Development Economics:
  • Political Economy:

    1. Government expenditure cycles around elections, and

    2. Psychology of Economic voting: how voters form perceptions about policy-makers competence (monetary and fiscal policy) taking a bounded rationality approach, such as using their sentiments and ‘news’.

    3. The dual role of democracy and optimal government intervention.  

  • Development Economics:

    The relationship between democracy, inequality and economic institutions, investigating  the impact ‘democratization’ in developing economies. 

Recent and Selected Publications:
  1. with R. Golinelli, (2021), "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions of Forecaster Inattentiveness." Oxford Economic Papers DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpab012, forthcoming 
  2. with Saeed Heravi, (2020) "Public opinion as Nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty". Journal of Mathematical Sociology. DOI: 10.1080/0022250X.2020.173237
  3. with Huw Dixon and Saeed Heravi, (2019) "Forecasting inflation gap persistence: do financial sector professionals differ from non-financial sector ones?. International Journal of Finance and Economics25(3), pp. 461-474. (10.1002/ijfe.1762)
  4. with James M, Holmes, Colin Ash, (2019) "David J. Smyth: An Appreciation of His Work" Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 60, June 2019, Pages A1-A8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.03.005
  5. with Mossay, P, (2015) “Households Forming Macroeconomic Expectations: Rational Inattentive Behavior with Social Learning” BE Contributions to Macroeconomic,  Vol. 15, No. 1 (Jan 2015) 
  6. with R. Golinelli, M. Malgrini, (2013)  “What Determines Households Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey”, European Economic Review, 61 (July), pp. 1 - 13 (Lead Article).
  7. with Amendola, A and Savoia  A. (2013)  “Inequality in Developing Economies: the Role of Institutional DevelopmentPublic Choice,  Vol. 155, Issue 1-2, pp 43-60.
  8. (2010) “It's All 'Bad' News!  Voters' Perception of Macroeconomic Policy CompetencePublic Choice, Vol. 145, No. 1- 2, pp. 253-264. 
  9. with A. Mackay and A. Savoia, (2010), “Property Rights, Democracy and Inequality: A Survey of Recent Literature”, World Development , Vol. 38(2), pp. 142-154.
  10. with S. Heravi, (2009) “Are Households’ Forecast Rational and Useful? Evidence from the BHPS”.  Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, pp. 667-680. 
  11. with Abbot A. and Xing, T,(2008) “Does More International Trade Result in Highly Correlated Business Cycles?”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, Issue 2, pp. 403-417.
  12. . with A. Ghoshray, (2007) “Confidence or Competence? Do Presidencies Matter for   Households’ Subjective Preferences?” European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 23 (4), pp. 1025-1037.  
  13. with E. Clark, (2007) “Optimal Access Pricing for Natural Monopoly Networks when Costs are Sunk and Revenues are Uncertain” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 178 (2), pp. 595-602
  14. with A. Ghoshray, (2006) “Agent-based Learning in ‘Islands’ and ‘Sticky Information”: An Explanation for the Persistence of Real Effects”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 38, Number 1, pp. 263 - 268.
  15. with D. Garratt, (2006) “General Elections on Government Expenditure Cycles: Theory and Evidence from the UK”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 22(2), pp. 292-306
  16. with S. Heravi, (2004) “Evaluating Consumer Sentiments as Predictors of UK   Household   Consumption Behavior. Are they Accurate and Useful?” ,  International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, pp 671-681.
  17. with Garratt D., (1999), “UK Government Expenditure and Electoral Security in the 1980s: A Non-Linear Analysis”, Economics Letters, 62(3), pp. 287-292.

 Awards and Research Projects:

  • Awarded Leverhulme Trusts Research Fellowship: October 2007 to September 2008 ‘Microfoundations of how households form subjective macroeconomic expectations: The role of news’.
  Recent Working Papers and Presentations: