Working Papers:
Coauthors: David Berger, Veronica Guerrieri and Guido Lorenzoni
Brief Summary: We show that in many common consumption models, the optimal response of consumption to house price movements is given by a simple sufficient-statistic.  We measure this sufficient-statistic in the data and show it is large.  Realistic calibrations of the model also imply large housing price effects, in contrast to the common perception that theory implies small effects.

Coauthor: Johannes Stroebel
Brief Summary: We provide evidence from microdata that increases in housing wealth lead to reduced shopping effort by households and that firms respond by raising markups.  The total elasticity of retail prices to house prices is as high as 20%.  This has important implications for business cycle modeling.

Revision Requested by American Economic Review
Coauthors: Erik Hurst, Ben Keys and Amit Seru
Brief Summary: We show GSE mortgage rates do not vary with local default risk while private mortgage rates do. We argue the lack of regional risk pricing in GSE mortgage rates is driven by political constraints. A quantitative structural model shows the constant interest rate transfers money from regions with low risk to those with high risk.

Coauthor: David Berger
Brief Summary:  What drives countercyclical dispersion?  Greater volatility of shocks or greater response to shocks of the same size?  Standard data on endogenous outcomes cannot answer this question, but we use confidential BLS micro data in the open economy environment to provide identification.  The data supports responsiveness, not volatility shocks.

Coauthor: David Berger
Brief Summary:  We use CPI, PPI and IPP micro data to document how the distribution of price changes varies across time. We document several robust facts across all three data sets, and fitting a simple model to this data implies greater price flexibility during recessions.

Brief Summary: Aggregate price flexibility as measured by the inflation-output tradeoff in an estimated forward looking New-Keynesian Phillips Curve rises with microeconomic volatility.

Work In Progress:
Regional Effects of Monetary Policy
Investment and Monetary Policy with Micro Data

Econometrica. Volume 83, No. 1, Jan 2015
Coauthor: David Berger
Brief Summary: We use indirect inference to estimate a household model of durable consumption with fixed costs of adjustment.  We aggregate this model and show that it implies economic stimulus has smaller effect during recessions. We provide various reduced form evidence for the model mechanism. 

American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Volume 104, No. 5, May 2014.
Coauthor: David Berger
Brief Summary: We use STVARs to provide empirical evidence that durable spending responds more strongly to identified government spending shocks during expansions than during recessions.

Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 129, No. 1, Feb. 2014
Brief Summary:  I identify new micro pricing facts and show that these facts imply monetary policy faces a worse inflation-output tradeoff during times of high volatility.

Matlab and Stata:  Code
Brief Summary: Allowing for price adjustment probabilities that vary with duration provides a better fit for observed price spells in micro data.  Extending a Calvo model to match both duration-dependence and cross-item heterogeneity to match micro data increases monetary non-neutrality by 100-230% with a large fraction being driven by duration dependence.