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Working papers

Taxing top wealth: Migration responses and their aggregate economic implications (2026) (with K. Jakobsen, H. Kleven, C. Landais and M. Muñoz)

Conditionally accepted (pending data review), American Economic Review

Using administrative data from Scandinavian countries, we provide evidence on international migration responses to wealth taxes and evaluate their aggregate economic implications. We find significant migration responses among the wealthy: a 1pp increase in the top wealth tax rate decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by about 2%. A large fraction of the wealthy are business owners, and their businesses are negatively affected by owner out-migration. The aggregate effects are nevertheless modest: the migration responses to a 1pp increase in the top wealth tax rate reduce employment by 0.02%, investments by 0.07%, and value-added by 0.10%.

Link to paper

The capital advantage: Returns to ability in the labor and capital markets (2025) (with S. Bastani, K. Karlsson and D. Waldenström)

Does cognitive ability matter more in the capital market than in the labor market? While ability-based differences in wages and capital income are  well documented separately, they have rarely been examined jointly. Using Swedish registry data, we show that the return on cognitive ability in the capital market is roughly twice that in the labor market. This gap persists after controlling for education, occupation, and parental background and reflects higher savings and superior risk-adjusted investment performance. Cognitive ability is therefore a distinct driver of wealth accumulation beyond earnings, revealing an overlooked mechanism behind inequality and redistribution.

Link to paper

Work in progress

Entrepreneurship, Wealth, and Pensions in Sweden (with  Pavel Brendler (Nottingham U), Johannes Hagen (Jönköping U) and Benjamin Larin (Jönköping U))

Family and State Insurance in Early Career (with Omry Yoresh (LSE))

FX Shocks, Rent-Sharing, and Labor Market Responses (with Andreas Ek (Lund University))

Labor income inequality has increased substantially over the past three decades, many times in tandem with firm profits. We use a combination of foreign-exchange rate shocks together with firm country- and product-level exports to study the role of rent-sharing and to what extent it can account for changes in the income distribution, and how workers respond to firm choices in terms of labor supply and job turnover.

Labor shortages, rent sharing and employment dynamics

I combine linked employer-employee data with data from a firm tendency survey in Sweden to gauge the effects of firms' reports of labor shortages on wage formation and employment dynamics. Firms that report labor shortage raise incumbent workers' wages 0.3 to 0.9 percent faster. The effects are concentrated among highly educated workers earning above median wages: Workers in the top wage quartile get up to 2 percent higher wage raises compared the national average. Also, incumbent workers in firms with labor shortage climb quicker up the job ladder. The employment dynamics can be understood as firms with labor shortage being more prone to hire workers from non-employment who take jobs further down the job ladder while incumbent workers move up the rungs. Moves up the job ladder is the chief explanation as to why labor shortages lead to higher wage growth, not rent sharing.

See the NIER's Wage formation report (2022) for a shorter version in Swedish.

Labor market effects of high minimum wages: Evidence from Sweden 

I study the effect of collective agreed minimum wages on employment and wage formation in the retail and hospitality sectors in Sweden. In the sectors, which traditionally employ many workers with a lower degree of labor market attachment, the minimum wage bite rose from 60% in year 2000 to 70% in 2010. This makes it an interesting case study to see how high minimum wages can become before they start having adverse effects on employment. I find that higher minimum wages increase the likelihood of non-employment among incumbent workers; minimum wages raise total wages but that the relationship is inelastic suggesting that workers earning more than the minimum wage are compensated for the minimum wage increments; labor earnings drop since higher wages cannot compensate for reduced employment on both the intensive and extensive margins. I also find that minimum wages affect employment negatively when the minimum wage bite rise but not when it is kept constant, albeit at a relatively high level.

See the NIER's Wage formation report (2021) for a shorter version in Swedish.

Peer-reviewed publications

Retirement consumption and pension design (2024)

(with Camille Landais, Daniel Reck and Johannes Spinnewijn)

American Economic Review, 114(1), 89-133. 

Link to paper

Link to Vox column

The Value of Registry Data for Consumption Analysis: An Application to Health Shocks (2020)

(with Camille Landais and Johannes Spinnewijn)

Journal of Public Economics, 189

Link to paper

Link to Vox column

The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden (2018)

American Economic Review, 108(4-5), 985-1033.

(with Camille Landais, Peter Nilsson and Johannes Spinnewijn)

Link to paper

Other publications

Effekter av kortare arbetstid på BNP, sysselsättning, produktivitet och hälsa  (2024)

Konjunkturinstitutet, Specialstudie 

Link to paper 

The value and limits of unemployment insurance (2024)

(with Johannes Spinnewijn)

LSE Public Policy Review, 3(2)

Link to paper 

Link to LSE Business Review blog post

Voluntary unemployment insurance as an option for non-standard work: The case of Sweden (2018)

OECD (2018) (ed.), The Future of Social Protection: What works for non-standard workers?, OECD publishing, Paris.

Link to paper

Yrkesintroduktionsanställningar – Slutrapport om effekter på sysselsättning och lönebildning (2016) 

Konjunkturinstitutet, Specialstudie

Link to paper