Jonas E. Arias
Economic Advisor and Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia*
Current Research
Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner) R&R at Econometrica
Inference in Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Minchul Shin, and Daniel F. Waggoner) R&R at The Review of Economic Studies
Refereed Publications
The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Minchul Shin) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15 (3), p. 287-319.
Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Minchul Shin) Journal of Econometrics 235 (2), August 2023, p. 1054-1086.
Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner) Journal of Econometrics 225 (1), November 2021, p. 88-106.
Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model (with Guido Ascari, Nicola Branzoli, and Efrem Castelnuovo), International Journal of Central Banking 16 (3), June 2020, p. 51-94.
The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy: An Agnostic Identification Procedure (with Dario Caldara and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez), Journal of Monetary Economics 101 (2019), p. 1-13.
Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner), Econometrica 86 (2), March 2018, p. 685-720.
The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation (with Christopher Erceg and Mathias Trabandt), European Economic Review 88 (2016), p. 88-107.
Other Publications
The Economic Effects of Changes in Personal Income Tax Rates, Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Third Quarter 2021
Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help? (with Martin Bodenstein, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo), Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2020-068.
Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic (with Minchul Shin) Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Third Quarter 2020
Tracking Business Conditions in Delaware (with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde) Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Fourth Quarter 2018
Editorial Duties
Associate Editor, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics