Jonas E. Arias

Economic Advisor and Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of  Philadelphia*                                                                                                                                                               

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• Editorial Duties

  • Board of Editors,  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, May 2024 - Present

  • Associate Editor, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, September 2021 - Present

• Current Research

  • Large SVARs (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Minchul Shin)  

  • Inference Based on Scale, Label, and Economic Restrictions (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner)  

  • Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary? (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Minchul Shin)  

• Refereed Publications

  • Inference in Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Minchul Shin, and Daniel F. Waggoner)  Accepted at Review of Economic Studies 

  • Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner)  Econometrica 93 (2025), p. 695-718.

  • The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Minchul Shin) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,  15 (3), July 2023, p.  287-319.

  • Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Minchul Shin)  Journal of Econometrics 235 (2), August 2023, p. 1054-1086.

  • Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs  (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner)  Journal of Econometrics 225 (1), November 2021, p. 88-106.

  • Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model (with Guido Ascari, Nicola Branzoli, and Efrem Castelnuovo),  International Journal of Central Banking 16 (3), June 2020, p. 51-94.

  • The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy: An Agnostic Identification Procedure (with Dario Caldara and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez),  Journal of Monetary Economics 101 (2019), p. 1-13.

    • Replication files     

  • Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications (with Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez and Daniel F. Waggoner),  Econometrica 86 (2), March 2018, p. 685-720.

    • Replication files 

  • The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation (with Christopher Erceg and Mathias Trabandt), European Economic Review 88 (2016), p. 88-107.

    • Replication files 

• Other Publications

  • Breaking Down the Latest Fight Against Inflation (with Minchul Shin),  Economic Insights , Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Second Quarter 2025

  • The Economic Effects of Changes in Personal Income Tax Rates,  Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Third Quarter 2021

  • Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help? (with Martin Bodenstein, Hess Chung, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Andrea Raffo), Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2020-068.

  • Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic  (with Minchul Shin) Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Third Quarter 2020

  • Tracking Business Conditions in Delaware  (with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde) Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Fourth Quarter 2018