I am an economist at the International Finance division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

I received my Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in July 2018, and prior to that I obtained an MSc in Economics and Finance at CEMFI.


Fields:
Quantitative Macroeconomics, Labor Economics  


Contact Information


Phone: +1 (202) 452-2775

Mailing Address
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Washington, DC 20551
      



Latest Research

Abstract: European labor markets are characterized by the stringencies of their employment protection legislation. I study the impact of these regulations on human capital accumulation, cyclicality of job creation, and sorting of workers across contracts. I propose a quantitative model with contracts that differ in the level of protection they offer and provide human capital human capital accumulation, where ex-ante identical workers are offered different contracts as the result of imperfectly observed match quality. I estimate the model with Spanish Social Security Data and study the effects of firing costs on human capital accumulation. I find that  workers with protected jobs accumulate human capital faster compared to fixed-term workers and that a quarter of unemployment erodes 4.5 percent of workers' human capital, leading to an average 1.6 percent wage loss. Lower human capital accumulation and more frequent unemployment spells under fixed-term contracts generate lead to persistent unemployment scars after a job loss. I estimate the cost of entering the labor market during a recession to be 10 percent of the present discounted value of the first 10 years of wages, compared to entering during an expansion.


Countercyclical labor productivity and two-tier labor markets (updated September 2017)   

Abstract: The correlation between productivity and employment is negative in southern European countries, which cannot be reconciled by most existing models. These countries have two-tier labor markets: highly protected permanent workers exist alongside workers with insecure temporary contracts. The goal of this project is to quantitatively assess the connection between two-tier labor markets and the observed negative correlation. I propose a theoretical model of the labor market to test the effects of two-tier labor markets on aggregate productivity and employment and I show that the model is able to generate the negative correlation observed in the data.


The self-employment option: an empirical investigation in rigid labor markets (with Rocio Madera)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of becoming self-employed using Spanish Social Security data. We use a large panel of workers’ histories for the last three decades to characterize the dynamics of the transitions into self-employment and study the characteristics of workers that enter self-employment, with an emphasis on entry during recessions and expansions. The Spanish case is of particular interest given the high unemployment levels – often associated to a combination of strong unions and high firing costs – and its two-tier structure, which features many of the current challenges brought up by the gig economy in many other countries. We show that, in contrast to current evidence from other countries, the decision to become self-employed is pro- cyclical. We then use variation across sectors and occupations to understand the nature of this result, as well as the role of high unemployment insurance and pervasiveness of temporary contracts.


Leveraged housing and job dynamics during the Great Recession (with Eva de Francisco)

Abstract: The Great Recession was characterized not only by steep increases in the unemployment rate, but also by a tremendous decline in house prices. At the same time, employment recovery from the Great Recession has been relatively slow for modern standards, and has also been accompanied by a moderate increase in wages.  The literature has explored the existence of a house-lock effect defined as lower migration rates associated with home ownership, but has largely ignored if housing tenure has any effect on employment and salaries after a shock. In this paper, we look at the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data from 2008 to 2013 and study whether transitions from unemployment to employment, as well as earnings losses after displacement exhibited any differences between renters and homeowners. Our preliminary results indicate that renters exhibited higher job mobility than homeowners and recovered faster from unemployment shocks. Our findings suggest that the unprecedented increase in home ownership observed in the U.S. before the Great Recession has been a factor in the slow recovery contributing to the recent decrease in job mobility, low labor participation rates, and the contained wage inflation observed in the data.