Trend inflation for Japan

The latest: From 1983/Q1 to 2025/Q1 (updated in 2025/Apr.)

Real-time estimates of the full model in Nakajima (2023)

 trend.csv - Trend inflation (mean estimate and one-standard-deviation bands)

 trpro.csv - Regime probability of trend inflation

 trtms.csv - Term structure of inflation forecasts

• Cite the below article when using this dataset.

• The dataset is estimated and released by J. Nakajima within his research activity.

• The dataset is not the official view of the Bank of Japan.

• The dataset is updated every quarter. The past figures are subject to updates.

Reference:

• Nakajima, J. (2023). "Estimating trend inflation in a regime-switching Phillips curve" Discussion Paper Series A.750, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

[Japanese]