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Our group applies probability theory to research problems in energy. We study questions of flexibility, risk and optimisation in sustainable power systems, using techniques including real options analysis, stochastic control, optimal stopping and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

News and events

05/2020 Large Fluctuations in Locational Marginal Prices to appear in Philosophical Transactions A. preprint

05/2020 Distributions of cascade sizes in power system emergency response accepted at PMAPS 2020. preprint

03/2020 Presentation at VALPRED2

09/2019 Closing address at UKES2019

07/2019 Continuous Professional Development workshop: Air Quality in Urban Areas: Harnessing Data to Breathe Easy

03/2019 Imbalance market real options and the valuation of storage in future energy systems to appear in Risks. preprint

03/2019 A probabilistic verification theorem for the finite horizon two-player zero-sum optimal switching game in continuous time to appear in Advances in Applied Probability. preprint

01/2019 The mathematics of energy systems programme opens at the Isaac Newton Institute, running for 4 months!

10/2018 Optimal control of a commercial building's thermostatic load for off-peak demand response to appear in Journal of Building Performance Simulation. preprint

09/2018 Frequency violations from random disturbances: an MCMC approach accepted at CDC2018. preprint

09/2018 Seminar at University of Sussex

09/2018 Opening address at FT Digital Energy Summit 2018

06/2018 Presentation at Symposium on Optimal Stopping, Houston

05/2018 Presentation at Statistical Inference in Energy Markets, Paris

02/2018 A solvable two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem with non convex costs to appear in Mathematics of Operations Research. preprint

12/2017 Mini-course at YEQT XI: “Winterschool on Energy Systems”, Eindhoven

07/2017 Presentations at the Conference on the Mathematics of Energy Markets, Vienna and APS 2017, Chicago

07/2017 Theme issue of Philosophical Transactions A published (guest edited by JM and P Mancarella)

06/2017 Presentation at CEM2017, Oxford

05/2017 Presentation at CWI, Amsterdam

04/2017 Presentation at NTNU, Trondheim

04/2017 Nash equilibria of threshold type for two-player nonzero-sum games of stopping to appear in Annals of Applied Probability preprint

Bayesian calibration and number of jump components in electricity spot price models to appear in Energy Economics preprint

Optimal entry to an irreversible investment plan with non convex costs to appear in Mathematics and Financial Economics preprint

Three papers to appear in a theme issue of Philosophical Transactions A on Energy Management

03/2017 Presentation at Probabilistic Methods for Energy Networks - King's College London

01/2017 Meeting on Mathematics and Economics of Energy Markets

12/2016 Presentation at CDC, Las Vegas

06/2016 Indo-UK workshop on Energy Management (ICMS, Edinburgh)