Prelims Probability and Statistics

Scheduling: We meet in Weeks 1-6 of Trinity Term, on Wednesdays at 16:30--18:30, in my office (Room 10.3) in Corpus.

Organisation: This module of the Prelims Economics sequence is structured rather differently from the other modules. The course material consists entirely of pre-recorded lectures and demonstration classes. You should view the recordings according to the schedule given below.

Content: Since they are the main reference for this course, you should study the lecture slides closely. To supplement the first three parts of the lectures, I am also providing you with these notes (ignore the guidance on page ii, which is for the benefit of QE students) that should fill in some of the gaps left by the lectures. I also strongly encourage you to peruse the sections from Blitzstein & Hwang (2019), Introduction to Probability (2nd ed.), that are referred to in the notes. (You should ignore the references to Stock & Watson, which are included for the benefit of the second-year QE students.) I have instructed the Corpus Library to purchase sufficient copies of that work for all of you; it is also possible to view the entirety of the book online here.

As you work through the course material, you should attempt the questions set for the demonstration classes (denoted 'Demo') below, in advance of watching the recordings of those, in order to consolidate your knowledge of the material.

Format: Some classes will be structured around a quiz supplied by the course convener, consisting of a series of short answer questions on the lecture material. The quiz questions will be released to you on the Monday before the classes are held, but you should not submit answers to these in advance of the class.

In Weeks 2, 4 and 6, you will be required to submit solutions to longer form, exam-style questions, as listed below. These should be submitted electronically (as a pdf) for grading via Canvas, per the instructions that you received from Jenna Hughes-Jones. Please see these instructions on how to most effectively create scans of your written work. The submission deadline is 8pm on the Sunday prior to the tutorial.

Exam: The material in this module will contribute 1/3 of the questions in your Prelims Economics exam.

Class 1 (TT1)

Lectures: P0--P3, D0--D5 + Demo 1, 2 (excl. Q8--9)

Reading: Notes, Sec. 1, 2.1 and 2.2, and references to BH therein

You will not need to submit anything in advance of this class.

Class 2 (TT2)

Lectures: D6, M0--M4 + Demo 2 (Q8--9 only), 3

Reading: Notes, Sec. 2.3 and 3, and references to BH therein

The problems below are drawn from the past exams available from this folder. One of the files there collects relevant questions from past QE exams, most of which we will not cover but which are left for your revision purposes; I will post solutions to these after our final meeting. 21TT = 2021 Trinity Term exam; 21LV = 2021 Long Vac exam; 22CO = 2022 Collection; XXQE = 20XX QE exam. (EITHER) and (OR) denote the respective parts of an 'Either/Or' question.

Solutions to the other past QE questions are provided here, to aid with your revision.

Problems (to submit): 21TTq7; 21LVq9(OR); 22COq1; 21LVq9(EITHER)(b)

Class 3 (TT3)

Lectures: S0--S7 + Demo 4

Reading: Notes, Sec. 4 and 5, and references to BH therein

You will not need to submit anything in advance of this class.

Class 4 (TT4)

Problems (to submit): 21TTq8; 21LVq7; 16QEq4

Class 5 (TT5)

Lectures: C0--C6 (we will cover time series in TT6) + Demo 6

You will not need to submit anything in advance of this class.

Class 6 (TT6)

Lectures: T0--T7 + Demo 5

Problems (to submit): 22COq3; 22COq4(e); 21TTq9(OR)(e); 22COq4(c); 21TTq9(OR)(c); 21TTq9(OR)(d)