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I am a Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a Resident Advisor at the IMF's Technical Assistance Center for Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPTAC-DR). I am currently on an external assignment from the IMF's Research Department. Prior to this, I was part of the World Economic Studies and Development Macroeconomics divisions at the Research Department, and covered Canada, Mexico and Colombia at the Western Hemisphere Department. I received a B.A. in economics from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.
This website contains my academic and policy publications, blogs, and other policy contributions. All views on this site are my own.
Email: jalvarez@imf.org
Refereed publications
Refereed publications
Informality and Aggregate Productivity: The Case of Mexico, with Cian Ruane. European Economic Review, August 2024, 167.
Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?, with John Bluedorn, Youyou Huang, Evgenia Pugacheva, and Alexandre Sollaci. Economica, July 2024.
The Agricultural Wage Gap: Evidence from Brazilian Micro-data. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2020, 12(1), pp. 153-73.
Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil, with Felipe Benguria, Christian Moser and Niklas Engbom. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018, 10(1), pp. 149-89.
Grading Happiness: What Grading Systems Tell Us About Cross-country Wellbeing Comparisons, with Fernanda Marquez. Economics Bulletin. 2018, 38 (2) pp. 1138-115.
Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, with Fabian Valencia. Energy Economics, 2016 55: 253-265.
IMF papers
IMF papers
The Energy Origins of The Global Inflation Surge, with Thomas Kroen. IMF Working Paper No. 2025/091, May, 2025.
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets, with Mehdi Benatiya, Chiara Maggi, Alexandre Sollaci, Matin Stuermer and Petia Topalova. IMF Working Paper No. 2023/201, October, 2023.
How Costly Will Reining in Inflation Be? It Depends on How Rational We Are, with Allan Dizioli. IMF Working Paper No. 2023/021, February, 2023.
Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis: Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean, with Marco Arena, Alain Brousseau, Hamid Faruqee, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Jaime Guajardo, Gerardo Peraza, and Juan Yepez. IMF Departmental Paper No. 2022/020, December, 2022.
Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?, with John Bluedorn, Youyou Huang, Evgenia Pugacheva, and Alexandre Sollaci. IMF Working Paper No. 22/221, November, 2022.
COVID-19 and the Informality-driven Recovery: The Case of Colombia's Labor Market, with Carlo Pizzinelli. IMF Working Paper No. 21/235, September, 2021.
Informality and Aggregate Productivity: The Case of Mexico, with Cian Ruane. IMF Working Paper no. 19/257, November, 2019.
Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity, with Claudia Berg. IMF Working Paper No. 19/179, August, 2019.
Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization, with Ivo Krznar. IMF Working Paper No. 19/158, July, 2019.
Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence, with Jonathan Ostry, Raphael Espinoza and Chris Papageorgiou. IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06, October, 2018.
Structural Transformation and the Agricultural Wage Gap, IMF Working Paper No. 17/289, December 22, 2017.
Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil, with Felipe Benguria, Christian Moser and Niklas Engbom. IMF Working Paper No. 17/278, December, 2017.
Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, with Fabian Valencia. IMF Working Paper No. 15/45, February, 2015.
IMF World Economic Outlook chapters
IMF World Economic Outlook chapters
World Economic Outlook, October 2024: The Great Tightening: Insights from The Recent Inflation Episode (Chapter co-lead), IMF, 2024.
World Economic Outlook, October 2023: Fragmentation and Commodity Markets (Chapter co-lead), IMF, 2023.
World Economic Outlook, October 2022: Wage Dynamics Post–COVID-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks , IMF, 2022.
World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery, IMF, 2022.
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2022: Rising Caseloads, A Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation, IMF, 2022.
World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Migration (Contributor), IMF, 2020.
World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality (Contributor), IMF, 2018.
Other policy contributions
Other policy contributions
Colombia: Financial System Stability Assessment and Technical Note on Risk Analysis, IMF, 2022.
Labor Market Impact from COVID-19 and the Ongoing Recovery, Colombia Special Issues Paper, Ch. 2, IMF, 2021.
Potential Output: Reassessment and Pandemic Impact, Colombia Special Issues Paper, Ch. 3, IMF, 2021.
Colombia: 2021 Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2021.
Venezuelan Migration and the Labor Market, Colombia Special Issues Paper, Ch. 1, IMF, 2020.
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2020.
Mexico: 2019 Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2019.
Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization , Canada Selected Issues Paper Ch. 3, IMF, 2019.
Canada: 2019 Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2019.
Formality and Equity: Labor Market Challenges in Mexico, Mexico Special Issues Paper, Ch. 1, IMF, 2018.
Mexico 2018: Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2018.
Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence, Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06, IMF, 2018.
A Closer Look at Productivity in Canada, Selected Issues Paper, Ch. 3, IMF, 2018.
Canada: 2018 Article IV Staff Report, IMF, 2018.
Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Output , chapter in Power Play: Energy and Manufacturing in North America. Edited by Roberto Cardarelli and Lusinyan, Lusine, IMF, 2016.
Blogs and media
Blogs and media
Global Inflationary Episode Offers Lessons for Monetary Policy, IMF Blog, IMF, October 2024.
A conversation with Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi on Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode, IMF Video Interview, October 2024.
A Greener Labor Market: Employment, Policies, and Economic Transformation, World Bank Data Partnership, March 2024.
Geoeconomic Fragmentation Threatens Food Security and the Green Energy Transition, IMF Blog, IMF, October 2023.
Wage-Price Spiral Risks Still Contained, Latest Data Suggests, IMF Blog, IMF, February 2023.
Wage-Price Spirals: The Historical Evidence, VoxEU column, CEPR, December, 2022.
Inflation to be Elevated for Longer on War, Demand, Job Markets, IMF Blog, IMF, April 2022.
Global Inflation Pressures Broadened on Food and Energy Price Gains, IMF Blog, IMF, January 2022.
COVID-19 and Labor Markets in Latin America, IMF Analytical Corner, IMF, April 2021.
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