Research in progress
"Estimating Bilateral Invoicing Currency Shares from Trade Data", with Alessandro Borin, Michele Mancini and Annalivia Polselli, 2020.
Abstract: In this work we propose a methodology to retrieve bilateral-country invoicing shares starting from available data on virtually all countries. The only dataset currently available provides information on invoicing shares at the aggregate country level. We elaborate a ``reverse engineering'' methodology to retrieve invoicing shares at the bilateral-country level from high frequency and disaggregated export unit values at the HS6 product level. This methodology relies on the assumption that in the short-run prices are sticky and firms do not change their invoicing strategy, so that the export/import unit values exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is entirely driven by the invoicing structure of trade flows. In other words, in the presence of price rigidities , exchange rate fluctuations mechanically transmit into export price invoiced in a given currency. We apply this methodology to Italian data for which we are able to compare estimates with actual invoicing shares computed from available micro-data. We find that this "reverse engineering" methodology is promising and suitable to be extended for a larger set of countries, for which information on the invoicing currency structure is either not available or available only at the aggregate level.
"The Sectoral Reallocation Effect of Fiscal Consolidation", 2016.
Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the effect of fiscal consolidation on the reallocation of resources from the non-tradable to the tradable sector. Using a measure of fiscal consolidation based on the narrative approach, elaborated at the IMF, I find the following results for a panel of OECD countries in the last three decades. First, fiscal consolidation leads to a contraction in employment which is uniquely driven by the decrease in non-tradable sector's employment. As a consequence, the relative size of the tradable sector increases. Second, tax-based fiscal adjustments are more contractionary than spending-based ones, being followed by a fall in both tradable and non-tradable sectors' employment. Third, exchange rate fluctuations seem to have a role in yielding part of the results, while contemporaneous monetary policy and wage fluctuations do not.
"The Lost Decade: a factual approach", with Roberto Piazza, 2016.
Abstract: The Japanese lost decade has attracted considerable attention, but economic interpretations of its origin have often been at odds with one another. The goal of this paper is to keep interpretations to a minimum and focus instead on providing a factual approach, i.e. a solid basis of evidence necessary for any policy discussion. We report developments around the time of Japan’s lost decade in four key areas: the exchange rate policy, including the 1985 Plaza Accord; the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy; the banking crisis; the government’s fiscal policy.
"Low-wage Competition and Innovation Strategies of Italian Firms", 2013.
Abstract: How did low-wage competition shape the innovation choices of Italian firms? According to the theory, firms may increase their expenditure in innovation ('escape competition effect') or reduce it ('Schumpeterian effect') in response to competition pressures. I analyze this issue empirically with a data set that includes firm-level indicator of competition from low-wage countries and that allows me to decompose firm innovation choices into product versus process innovation. I find that `Schumpeterian effect' is rejected as firms innovate when competition becomes tougher. In particular, firms that face competition only from low-wage countries, tend to introduce product - as opposed to process - innovation, the effect being driven by specialized and high-tech sectors only.