
Abstract (p. 2) 

Acknowledgments (p. 4) 

List of Tables (p. 8) 

List of Figures (p. 11) 

Chapter 1: Introduction (p. 12) 


Problem Statement (p. 15) 


Purpose of the Study (p. 17) 



I. Data and method (p. 18) 



II. Contributions to the literature and rationale for the study (p. 19) 



III. Limitations (p. 21) 


Organization of the Dissertation (p. 22) 


Summary (p. 23) 

Chapter 2: Literature Review–UCR and NCVS: Historical and Methodological Review (p. 24) 


Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) (p. 25) 



I. National IncidentBased Reporting System (NIBRS) (p. 27) 


Reporting Crime to Police (p. 28) 


National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) (p. 31) 



I. Historical overview and objectives (p. 31) 



II. Current survey methodology (p. 33) 




A. Sampe and design (p. 34) 




B. Data collection and instruments (p. 36) 



III. Methodological changes in the NCVS (p. 38) 



IV. Methodological changes in 1992 and its effects (p. 39) 



V. Changes beyong 1992 and future directions (p. 41) 


Summary (p. 42) 

Chapter 3: Literature Review–Conception, Exploration, and Explanation of Convergence Between the UCR and NCVS: Analytical Framework and Major Hypotheses (p. 45) 


UCR and NCVS: Why Do They Diverge? (p. 46) 


Convergence between the UCR and NCVS (p. 49) 



I. Debate on methodology explaining the convergence (p. 52) 



II. Meaning of convergence (p. 55) 




A. Crosssectional studies (p. 57) 




B. Time series studies (p. 58) 


Factors Leading to the Convergence between the UCR and NCVS (p. 60) 



I. Police productivity (p. 61) 



II. Population characteristics (p. 65) 



III. Changes in measurement (p. 66) 



IV. Attitudes of people toward crime and police (p. 66) 



V. Mobile phone use (p. 67) 


Research Hypotheses (p. 70) 


Summary (p. 73) 

Chapter 4: Data, Measurement, and Methodology (p. 77) 


Data (p. 77) 



I. Uniform Crime Reports (p. 78) 



II: National Crime Victimization Survey (p. 78) 




A. Adjustment with the pre1993 victimization data (p. 79) 



III. Census (p. 79) 



IV. Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (p. 80) 



V. The General Social Survey (p. 80) 



VI. Cellular Telephone Industries Association (p. 80) 


Measures (p. 81) 



I. Dependent Variables (p. 81) 




A. Reasons for using only six Part I crimes and aggregated measure crime (p. 82) 




B. Reasons for using an aggregated category of property crime (p. 83) 



II. Independent variables (p. 85) 


Descriptive Statistics (p. 85) 


Analytic Strategy (p. 91) 


Summary (p. 97) 

Chapter 5: Are the UCR and NCVS Converging? (p. 98) 


Graphic Analysis of Convergence (p. 99) 


Correlational Analyses of Convergence (p. 107) 


Convergence Test through Regression of UCR and NCVS Rate Differences on Time (p. 114) 


Cointegration Analyses of Convergence (p. 116) 



I. Rate spread plots (p. 119) 



II. The ADF test of logged differences between UCR and NCVS rates (p. 119) 



III. Cointegration: EngleGranger test (p. 121) 




A. Nonstationarity test (p. 122) 




B. ADF test of residuals of cointegration regressions between UCR and NCVS rates (p. 124) 




C. Error correction models (p. 127) 


Convergence Analysis with Adjusted UCR Rates (p. 129) 




I. Graphic analysis (p. 134) 




II. Correlational analysis (p. 134) 




III. Convergence test through regression of rate differences on time (p. 137) 




IV. Cointegration analyses of convergence (p. 138) 




A. Rate spread plots (p. 139) 




B. The ADF test of logged differences between adjusted UCR and NCVS rates (p. 139) 




C. Cointegration: EngleGranger test (p. 141) 


Result Summary and Hypothese Testing (p. 143) 


Summary (p. 146) 

Chapter 6: Modeling Convergence: Investigation of Factors (p. 147) 


Assumptions and Data Issues (p. 148) 



I. Multicollinearity (p. 149) 



II. Autocorrelation (p. 150) 


Multivariate Results (p. 152) 


Results Summary and Hypotheses Testing (p. 157) 


Summary (p. 159) 

Chapter 7: Discussion and Conclusions (p. 185) 


Background and Summary of the Study (p. 185) 


Discussion of Findings (p. 187) 


Implications (p. 195) 



I. Policy implications (p. 196) 



II. Methodological implications (p. 198) 


Limitations (p. 199) 


Future Research Directions (p. 201) 


Conclusions (p. 202) 

Appendix A: Comparison Between the UCR and NCVS in Research (p. 205) 

Appendix B: List of Variables Explored and Used in the Study (p. 220) 


Dependent Variables (p. 220) 


Explanatory Variables (p. 223) 



Demographic Variables (p. 223) 



Police Organizational and Operational Variables (p. 224) 



Social Attitude Variables (p. 226) 



Other Variables (p. 227) 

Appendix C: Stationarity Check and Transformation (p. 228) 


Checking For Stationarity (p. 228) 


Making a TimeSeries Stationary (p. 230) 

References (p. 232) 