Hideaki Matsuoka

Fiscal vulnerabilities depend on both the level and composition of government debt. This study examines the role of debt thresholds and debt composition in driving the non-linear behavior of long-term interest rates through a novel approach, a panel smooth transition regression with a general logistic model. The main findings are threefold. First, the impact of the expected public debt level on interest rates rises exponentially when the share of foreign private holdings exceeds approximately 20 percent of government debt denominated in local currency. Second, if the public debt level exceeds a certain level, an increase in foreign private holding of government debt could raise interest rates, offsetting the downward pressure from higher market liquidity. Third, out-of-sample forecasts of this novel non-linear model are more accurate than those of previous methods. 

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations suggest that 1 percentage point shock to the inflation rate can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.7 percentage points on average across countries, while the estimated impulse responses are a little larger and more persistent. Additional assumptions taking into account financial repression do not necessarily make these effects substantially larger. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce the public debt burden only marginally.

Abstract

The seven largest emerging market economies—China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey—constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010–2015. These emerging markets, which we call EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets (FMs). Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with an 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and FMs and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of 3 years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (group of seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and FMs, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.

Abstract

It is widely known that Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among OECD countries. If Japan’s national debt continues to balloon, fiscal crisis may occur in the future. This paper develops a closed economy model with defaultable government debt and conducts a simulation to investigate future sovereign debt risk.

First, we estimate the fiscal limit which is defined as the sum of the discounted maximum fiscal surplus in all future periods. It is assumed that a partial default occurs when the amount of government debt exceeds the fiscal limit. We calculate the revenue-maximizing tax rate at the peak of the Laffer curve to derive the fiscal limit. As a result, the estimated average fiscal limit in Japan is much higher than that in Greece. In the Japanese economy, households are more patient and desire greater savings from greater discount factor derived from a lower real interest rate. Household saving habits support government bonds. This is the main reason why the Japanese government could have had a massive debt in addition to some room to raise the tax rate. Second, we simulate the model, using the estimated fiscal limit and non-linear computational methods. If the government debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase for the next 20 years, the default probability will be over 10% and the sovereign risk premium will be approximately 2%. Furthermore, the default probability will reach approximately 80% and the sovereign risk premium will be 10% 30 years later.

＜概要＞

　本稿では、政府による所得税収の見積もりが不確実になっている背景を政府経済見通し、税収予算、決算データを用いて分析した。 個人所得に占める配当の割合が高まっており、企業収益の影響が家計所得に影響しやすく なっている。このため、所得税収も変動の大きな企業収益の影響を受け不安定になってい る。その上、政府経済見通しに注目すると、配当を含む財産所得の予測誤差が大きく、配当などの予測は難しい。政府は予測精度を改善させ大きな予算割れを防ぐために、「人々の税の納め方が変わってくるにつれて、どのような統計を作ればよいのか」ということを念頭に置かなければならない。GDP統計では英国、米国に比べて課税ベースである分配面の情報が不足している。社会保障財源をどのように確保していく のかが課題となっている今、税収見通しの不確実性を認識する必要がある。 

Abstract

This paper investigates how the sector-specific source or the changing sectoral composition of labor productivity has contributed to β-convergence, using a newly constructed eight-sector database. The main findings are twofold. First, both within and sectoral reallocation have become important drivers of β-convergence in labor productivity. Second, agricultural productivity growth has been a significant contributor to β-convergence, whereas catch-up in other sectors has only contributed a small amount to convergence. The strong growth of the agriculture sector has been the most important driver of aggregate productivity convergence even though agricultural productivity itself in low-income countries is not converging to that in advanced economies.

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt.