Hibiki ICHIUE (一上 響)

Thank you for visiting my homepage. Nothing in this page reflects official views of the Bank of Japan and the International Monetay Fund. 

Current Position

Head of Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan


hichiue "at" gmail.com


B.S. in Engineering, the University of Tokyo (1995)

M.S. in Engineering, the University of Tokyo (1997)

Ph.D. in Economics, the University of California, San Diego (2005)


Monetary policy, Macroeconomics, Finance


Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan's Economy (with Takuji Fueki, Ichiro Fukunaga, and Toyoichiro Shirota), International Journal of Central Banking, March 1-32, 2016

Determinants of Long-term Yields: A Panel Data Analysis of Major Countries” (with Yuhei Shimizu), Japan and the World Economy, 34–35 (May–August) 44-55, 2015

Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve at Zero Interest” (with Yoichi Ueno)Journal of the Japanese and International Economies38 (December), 1–12, 2015

Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending at the Zero Bound: Micro Evidence (with Shusaku Nishiguchi), Economic Inquiry 53(2), 1086-1107, 2015

Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are They Rational, Stubborn or Jumpy?” (with Ippei Fujiwara, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, and Yosuke Shigemi), Economics Letters 118(3), 526-530, 2013

Inflation Dynamics and Labor Market Specifications: A Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach for Japan's Economy” (with Takushi Kurozumi and Takeki Sunakawa), Economic Inquiry 51(1), 273–287, 2013

Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity” (with Kentaro Koyama), Journal of International Money and Finance 30(7), 1436-1450, 2011

Real-time Analysis on Japan's Labor Productivity Dynamics” (with Naoko Hara), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 25(2), 107-130, 2011
Using Survey Data to Correct the Bias in Policy Expectations Extracted from Fed Funds Futures” (with Tomonori Yuyama), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41(8), 1631-1647, 2009

Working Papers

“Federal Reserve Information by Forecasting Horizon (with Yoshiyuki Nakazono)

A Macroeconomic Forecast-implied Shadow Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects (with Yoichi Ueno)

Post-crisis International Banking: An Analysis with New Regulatory Survey Data (with Frederic Lambert)

Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (with Luis Brandao-Marques, Gaston Gelos, and Hiroko Oura)

Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields (with Yoichi Ueno)

A Hybrid-type Model: Quarterly-Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM)” (with Naoko Hara, Tomiyuki Kitamura, Satoko Kojima, Koji Nakamura, and Toyoichiro Shirota) (in Japanese)

Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment (with Yoichi Ueno)

Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve at Zero Interest: The Macro-finance Model of Interest Rates as Options (with Yoichi Ueno)

Which Risks Are Paid for with the Term Premium?, formerly circulated as How Do Monetary Policy Rules Affect Term Premia?

Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model (old version)

Hedging with Nonlinear Transaction Costs (summary) (in Japanese) (summary in English)

Other Articles

Monetary Policy and the Rise of Nonbank Finance” (with Nicolás Arregui, Luis Brandão-Marques, Lucyna Gornicka, Nicolás Magud, Win Monroe, Machiko Narita, and Garence Staraci, with contributions from Simon Gilchrist, Stephen G. Cecchetti, and Lev Ratnovski, under the overall guidance of Gaston Gelos and Dong He), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2016, Chapter 2, IMF

Corporate Leverage in Emerging Markets—A Concern?” (with Adrian Alter, Nicolás Arregui, Selim Elekdag, Oksana Khadarina, Ayumu Ken Kikkawa, Suchitra Kumarapathy, Machiko Narita, and Jinfan Zhang, with contributions from Raphael Lam and Christian Saborowski, under the overall guidance of Gaston Gelos and Dong He), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015, Chapter 3, IMF

The Asset Management Industry and Financial Stability” (with Nicolás Arregui, Jonathan Beauchamp, Rina Bhattacharya, Antoine Bouveret, Cristina Cuervo, Pragyan Deb, Jennifer Elliott, Bradley Jones, Yoon Kim, Joe Maloney, Win Monroe,  Hiroko Oura, Martin Saldias, and Nico Valckx, with contributions by Viral Acharya (consultant), and data management assistance from Min-Jer Lee, under the overall guidance of Gaston Gelos and Dong He), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015, Chapter 3, IMF

International Banking After the Crisis: Increasingly Local and Safer?” (with Pragyan Deb, Johannes Ehrentraud, Brenda González-Hermosillo, Oksana Khadarina, Frederic Lambert, Win Monroe, Hiroko Oura, Martin Saldías, and Kai Yan, with contributions from John Bluedorn and Alexandra Peter, under the overall guidance of Gaston Gelos and Dong He), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015, Chapter 2, IMF

How Do Changes in the Investor Base and Financial Deepening Affect Emerging Market Economies?” (with Hiroko Oura, Nicolas Arregui, Luis Brandao-Marques, Johannes Ehrentraud, and Prachi Mishra), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014, Chapter 2, IMF

Supply and Demand for Safety Assets and Scarcity Premia on Government Bonds” (with Takeshi Kimura, Toshifumi Nakamura, and Hikaru Hasebe), Bank of Japan Review 2012-J-1, 2012 (in Japanese)

Measuring Potential Growth in Japan: Some Practical Caveats” (with Takuji Fueki, Ichiro Fukunaga, Toshitaka Sekine, and Toyoichiro Shirota), Bank of Japan Review 2010-E-1, 2010

Cash Flows and Strategies of Listed Firms Facing Changes in Business Environment after the Lehmann Shock” (with Masao Fujiwara, Yuko Miyoshi, Toshiaki Yamanaka, and Takashi Nagahata), Bank of Japan Review 2009-J-16, 2009 (in Japanese)

Practical Use of Macroeconomic Models at Central Banks” (with Naoko Hara, Satoko Kojima, Koji Nakamura, and Toyoichiro Shirota), Bank of Japan Review 2009-E-1, 2009

Extracting Market Expectations about Monetary Policy: Learning from the U.S. Experience” (with Tomonori Yuyama), Bank of Japan Review 2007-J-8, 2007 (in Japanese)

Macro Factors Influencing Credit Spreads” (with Eiko Ooka and Yoichi Ueno), Bank of Japan Review 2006-J-6, 2006 (in Japanese)

Development of Japan’s Credit Markets,” BIS Papers Chapters, in: BIS (ed.), Developing Corporate Bond Markets in Asia 26, 88-95, 2006