Course Info
This course will meet on Mondays from 2-4:40 in 531 Lattimore Hall. Grades will be determined by participation in class discussions, two problem sets, biweekly reading responses, and a final seminar paper.
See the syllabus for more detailed information.
Schedule of Readings
We will be reading a manuscript of Mike Titelbaum's new book, Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology, which I will distribute via e-mail. All other course readings can be found below.
Week 1 (8/31) – Full and Partial Belief
Required reading: FBE Ch. 1 (1-16)
Christensen Putting Logic In Its Place, Ch. 2 (12-32)
Hempel “Deductive-Nomological vs. Statistical Explanations”, Sections 1-2 (98-101), 7-8 (121-128), 10 (137-141), 13 (163-166)
Supplementary reading: Kyberg “Conjunctivitis”; Easwaran “Dr. Truthlove”
Assignment: none
Week 2 (9/7) – No class (Labor Day)
Week 3 (9/14) – Axioms and Rules of Probability: Some Synchronic Norms
Required reading: FBE Ch. 2 (25-48)
FBE Ch. 3 (53-72)
Supplementary reading: Skyrms Choice and Chance, Ch. 6; Hacking An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic, Ch. 1-7 (see me to borrow a hard copy of either); Hajek "What Conditional Probability Could Not Be"
Assignment: Problem set #1 due (partial solutions)
Week 4 (9/21) – Arguments for Synchronic Probabilism, Pt. 1
Required reading: FBE Ch. 7 (185-194)
FBE Ch. 8 (217-235)
Hajek “Arguments for – or against – Probabilism?”, Sections 1 (793-795) & 3 (803-807)
Supplementary reading: Ramsey “Truth and Probability”; FBE Ch. 7 (194-209);
Zynda “Representation Theorems and Realism about Degrees of Belief”;
Meachem & Weisberg “Representation Theorems and the Foundations of Decision Theory”
Assignment: Group A reading responses due
Week 5 (9/28) – Arguments for Synchronic Probabilism, Pt. 2
Required reading: FBE Ch. 9 (241-261)
Hajek “Arguments for – or against – Probabilism?”, Section 2 (795-802)
Pettigrew “Epistemic Utility and Norms for Credences”, Sections 1-2 (898-901)
Supplementary reading: Joyce “A Non-Pragmatic Vindication of Probabilism”; FBE, Ch. 10; Carr “Epistemic Utility Theory and the Aim of Belief”; Pettigrew “Accuracy and Evidence”; Kolodny “How Does Coherence Matter?”
Assignment: Group B reading responses due
Week 6 (10/5) – No class (Fall Break)
Week 7 (10/12) – Conditionalization: A Diachronic Norm
Required reading: FBE Ch. 4, Sections 4.1-4.2 (85-98)
Kelly “Evidence”, entry in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Supplementary reading: Leitgeb & Pettigrew “An Objective Justification of Bayesianism, Pt. 2”; Greaves & Wallace “Justifying Conditionalization”
Assignment: Group A reading responses due
Week 8 (10/19) – Priors
Required reading: FBE Ch. 4, Section 4.3 (99-105)
White “Epistemic Permissiveness”
FBE Ch. 5, Section 5.1.2 (118-121)
FBE Ch. 5, Section 5.3 (133-137)
Supplementary reading: Feldman “Reasonable Religious Disagreement”; White “Evidential Symmetry and Mushy Credences”;
Norton “Ignorance and Indifference”; Egan & Elga “I Can't Believe I'm Stupid”; Caie “Rational Probabilistic Incoherence”
Assignment: Group B reading responses due
Week 9 (10/26) – Interpretations of Probability
Required reading: FBE Ch. 5, Section 5.1.1 (113-117)
Hajek “Interpretations of Probability”, entry in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
FBE Ch. 5, Sections 5.2.1 (121-129)
Supplementary reading: Lewis “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance”; Hajek, “The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too”
Assignment: Group A reading responses due
Week 10 (11/2) – Confirmation
Required reading: FBE Ch. 6 (139-157)
Hempel “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation, Pt. 1”
Supplementary reading: Hempel, “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation, Pt. 2”; Kotzen, “Dragging and Confirming”;
Fitelson, “The Paradox of Confirmation”; Fitelson, “On the Plurality of Bayesian Confirmation Measures”
Assignment: Group B reading responses due
Week 11 (11/9) – Probabilities in Science, Pt. 1
Required reading: Sober Evidence and Evolution, Sections 1.1–1.3 (1-48)
Supplementary reading: Steel “Bayesian Confirmation Theory and the Likelihood Principle”
Assignment: Problem set #2 due
Week 12 (11/16) – Probabilities in Science, Pt. 2
Required reading: Sober Evidence and Evolution, Sections 1.4-1.9 (48-108)
Supplementary reading: Mayo Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge, Ch. 10;
Gandenberger "Why I Am Not a Likelihoodist"; Kotzen "Multiple Studies and Evidential Defeat"
Assignment: Group A reading responses due
Week 13 (11/23) – Grue!
Required reading: Goodman Fact, Fiction, and Forecast, Section 3.4(72-83)
Titelbaum “Not Enough There There” (477-499)
Supplementary reading: Quine “Natural Kinds”; White "Explanation as a Guide to Induction"
Assignment: Group B reading responses due
Week 14 (11/30) – Theories and Evidence, Pt. 1
Required reading: Earman Bayes or Bust, Ch. 6 (137-161)
Supplementary reading: TBD
Assignment: Group A reading responses due
Week 15 (12/7) – Theories and Evidence, Pt. 2
Required reading: Gallow “How to Learn from Theory-Dependent Evidence” (493-519)
Henderson et al. “The Structure and Dynamics of Scientific Theories; A Hierarchical Bayesian Perspective” (172-200)
Supplementary reading: Jeffrey “Bayesianism with a Human Face”
Assignment: Group B reading responses due