Has van Vlokhoven

I am an assistant professor at Tilburg University. My research interests are broadly in macroeconomics. I am particularly interested in long-run dynamics, the macroeconomics of development and firm behavior.

Working Papers

Reliable Markups in Noisy Data: A Case for Cost-Weighted Aggregation [SSRN] (July 2025)

Abstract: This paper shows that the widely reported rise in aggregate markups over recent decades is overstated due to idiosyncratic measurement error in firm-level sales and costs. I first demonstrate theoretically that such error biases sales-weighted markups upward, while cost-weighted markups remain unaffected. Using production function estimation techniques, I then empirically estimate and correct for measurement error, and find that the increase in sales-weighted markups largely vanishes, aligning closely with cost-weighted trends. Together, these findings imply that the cost-weighted markup offers a more robust measure of market power in the presence of measurement error.

The Rise in Profits and Fall in Firm Entry: A Tale of the Life Cycle of Profits [SSRN] (May 2025)

Abstract: It is crucial to consider how profits vary over the life cycle of the firm in order to understand why the aggregate profit share has been increasing while firm entry has been declining. All else equal, the more back-loaded profits are, the lower is the value of the firm due to discounting. Therefore, fewer entrepreneurs choose to enter the market, leading to an increase in average profits per firm as market shares are increasing. This makes that profits in the cross-section have increased while the discounted value of profits at entry might not have increased. Empirically, profits have become more back-loaded. Using a quantitative life cycle model of the firm I find that this increase in back-loadedness explains between a third and a half of the rise in profits, and explains 70% of the fall in firm entry.

Decomposing the Rise in Markups [SSRN] (March 2025) Revise & Resubmit Quantitative Economics

Abstract: A recent literature argues that the rise in aggregate markups is due to economic activity reallocating toward high-markup firms rather than an increase in firm-level markups. Standard decomposition methods used to analyze this phenomenon estimate a non-zero reallocation effect even when the allocation is invariant. I propose a new decomposition which gives that the rise in the aggregate markup mainly comes from changes in the markup distribution rather than changes in the market share distribution. Finally, I show that the faster increase in the sales-weighted average markup compared to the cost-weighted average markup is an indication that allocative efficiency has declined.

Decomposing the Rise in Markups with Measurement Error [SSRN] (April 2023)

A rise in the aggregate markup can be decomposed into an effect coming from changes in firm-level markups and an effect coming from reallocation of economic activity toward high-markup firms. I show that such a decomposition is heavily influenced by measurement error of firm-level markups. When firm-level markups are mismeasured the decomposition can give opposite results depending on whether actual or measured markups are used. The data suggests that measurement error has increased over time within Compustat data. Correcting for measurement error lowers the reallocation effect. Moreover, correcting for measurement error also lowers the estimated sales-weighted average markup, and I find that the estimated increase in the sales-weighted markup over the last 60 years in Compustat is for a large part due to this rise in measurement error. The cost-weighted average markup is not affected by idiosynchratic measurement error and is therefore a more robust estimate of market power.

Publications

Estimating the Cost of Capital and the Profit Share

The Economic Journal (2024), Vol. 134(661): 2175-2206

Diffusion of Ideas in Networks with Endogenous Search

Review of Economic Dynamics (2023), Vol. 49: 269-311

The Effect of Open Access on Research Quality [Ungated]

Journal of Informetrics (2019), Vol. 13(2): 751-756

Financial Fragility of Euro Area Households [ECB Working Paper]

Journal of Financial Stability (2016), Vol. 27: 250-262, with Miguel Ampudia and Dawid Zochowski Media coverage: The Telegraph, Financial Times Alphaville

Research in Progress

Trade and Growth Over the Life Cycle with Wietse Mesman and Guzmán Ourens

Profits and the Marginal Product of Capital Around the World

Other Writings (not peer-reviewed)

Economische Winsten Zijn Over de Lange Termijn Gestegen

ESB (July 2023), Vol. 108(4823): 310-313Media coverage: Trouw, BNR

Geen Graaiflatie Omdat de Kosten Van Kapitaal Gestegen Zijn

ESB, 23 May 2023 Media coverage: Het Financieele Dagblad, NRC

Resting Working Paper

Policy During an Epidemic With Super-Spreaders [SSRN] (July 2020)

Contact Informationh.vanvlokhoven [at] tilburguniversity.edu+31 13 466 8501
Curriculum VitaeDownload
LinksGoogle Scholar
Mailing AddressTilburg University PO Box 901535000 LE TilburgThe Netherlands

Google Sites

Report abuse