Prediction Markets at The Home Page of George Tziralis

Doctoral Researcher, Dipl. Mechanical Engineer

 

Prediction markets are defined as the markets that are designed and run for the primary purpose of 

  • mining and aggregating scattered among players information and
  • subsequently use of this information in market values in order to make predictions about specific future events.

 

 

Some early fruits of my work on this emerging research topic, which consists the core of my PhD dissertation, are

  •  Prediction Markets: Aspects on Transforming a Business Game into a Valuable Information Aggregation Tool,  presented at the  3rd Future Business Technology Conference,  17-19 April 2006, Athens, Greece 
  •   Prediction Markets: An Information Aggregation Perspective to the Forecasting Problem, World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management & Sustainable Development
  • Prediction Markets as Decision Support Tool for Supply Chain Management,  2nd National Conference of Mechanical & Electrical Engineers, 16-18 May 2007, Athens, Greece (in greek)

 

This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The former consists of 152 articles, published between 1991 and 2006. The results show that an increasing volume of PM research has been conducted in a very diverse range of areas. The articles are further classified and the results of this classification are presented, based on a scheme that consists of four main categories: description, theoretical work, applications, and law and politics. A comprehensive list of references concludes this literature review. It is the authors’ intention to provide an expedient source for anyone interested in PM research and motivate further interest.

Latest publication: 

  • Market-driven Innovation Management, from the inside in 
    • Proceeding of APMS 2008, International Conference on Innovation in Networks, September 14-17, 2008, Espoo, Finland, pg. 553-562
    • abstract: Modern enterprises and organizations seem like market-agnostic, semi-permeable bubbles, in a market-powered universe. Although markets external ly define companies’ operations, such mechanisms have yet no place in supporting the decisions of those entities. We attempt to address this reality by exploring the use and impact of an internal market mechanism to support decision-making in innovation management. We step up by focusing on a generic innovation’s management problem, the one of idea selection. An abstract model of an internal market is shaped, with contracts traded on selecting the idea that has the greatest potential for deployment. The questions that we ultimately address regard the properties of market’s convergence towards equilibrium. In our case, this translates to a meta-mechanism able to aggregate the totality of available information throughout knowledge workers and utilize it to highlight among the available ideas the one with the greatest potential for development. A market-approach to innovation management is rather novel; we believe that this text provides some unique contributions in this developing field, while introduces various options for further research.

  • Extended Lecture Notes on predictions markets (in greek, .pdf)

 

Drafts to be published, soon: 

  • A coherent price function for a dynamic pari-mutuel prediction market
    • sets a framework of desirable properties for a coherent price function and
    • presents a function that satisfies all these properties

 

 Other stuff

 

A Web search engine focusing on content relevant to prediction markets (by me):

Blog + news roll on prediction markets and relevant keywords (by me):

 

 

home 

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Prediction Markets Links

 

Informational 

Blogs

(recent posts of all relevant blogs available here)

 

Play Money Prediction Markets

 

Real Money Prediction Markets

 

People

 

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