Research papers

The views expressed in this website are mine and not necessarily those of the IMF or the IMF board.

Link to RePEc page

Journal publications

  1. Debt Sustainability, Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model (with Shu-Chun S. Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna), 2016, Economic Modelling, 52, 630-649. [Article] [IMF WP version]

    Applications of the DIGNAR model at the IMF:
    Republic of Mozambique, Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation [download]
    Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation [download]
    Republic of Kazakhstan, IMF Country Report 13/291 [download]
    Republic of Congo, IMF Country Report 14/273 [download]
    MyanmarStaff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation [download]
    Côte d’IvoireGuineaLiberia, and Sierra Leone, IMF Working Paper 15/25 [download]
    Box 1.2, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2016 [download]

  2. Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective (with Mauro Costantini and Matteo Fragetta), 2014, European Economic Review70, 337–349. [Article] [WP version]

  3. A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery (with Cristiano Cantore and Paul Levine), 2014, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics116(3), 669-701. [Article] [Online appendix] [IMF WP version]

  4. Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships (with Stefania Villa), 2014, Economic Inquiry52(2), 696-712. [Article] [Online appendix] [IMF WP version]

  5. Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective (with Matteo Fragetta), 2013, Empirical Economics45(2), 831-844. [Article] [WP version]

  6. A Fiscal Stimulus with Deep Habits and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Bo Yang), 2012, Economics Letters, 117(1), 348-353. [Article] [WP version]

  7. An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Yunus Aksoy), 2012, Economics Letters, 114(1), 64-68. [Article] [WP version]

  8. The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR models: a Graphical Modelling Approach (with Matteo Fragetta), 2011, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58(4), 537-566. [Article] [WP version]

  9. US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output (with Yunus Aksoy), 2011, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 221-236. [Article] [WP version]

Working papers

  1. Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (with Nicoletta Batini and Stefania Villa), 2016, IMF Working Papers, 16/104, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [download].

  2. Non-Renewable Resources, Fiscal Rules and Human Capital (with Paul Levine and Harun Onder), 2016, Policy Research Working Paper, 7695, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. [download]

  3. Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Joe Pearlman), 2015, School of Economics Discussion Papers, 05/15, School of Economics, University of Surrey (previously circulated as "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Rules in Normal and Abnormal Times"). [download] 

  4. Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2015, CESifo Working Paper, CESifo Group Munich. [download]

  5. Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending (with Stefania Villa), 2015, CESifo Working Paper 5317, CESifo Group Munich. [download]

  6. Deep versus superficial habit: It's all in the persistence (with Cristiano Cantore and Paul Levine), 2014, School of Economics Discussion Papers, 0714, School of Economics, University of Surrey (previously circulated as "On Habit and Utility-Enhancing Government Consumption"). [download]

  7. Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan (with Nicoletta Batini and Giovanni Callegari), 2012, IMF Working Papers, 12/190, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [download]

    Media coverage:
    BBC 4 Radio, Today, Interview with Nicoletta Batini on the main findings of the paper, 24 August 2012 [download mp3]
    Economics Intelligence, 23 August [download pdf]
    The Daily Telegraph, 24 August 2012 [download pdf]
    Die Zeit, 24 August 2012 [download pdf]
    L'Unita', 24 August 2012 [download pdf]
    La Stampa, 25 August 2012 [download pdf
    Il Fatto Quotidiano, 29 August 2012 [download pdf]
    La Repubblica, 1 March 2013 [go to article]
    The Washington Post, 18 April 2013 [go to article]


Book Chapters

  1. Natural Resource Wealth and Public Investment Strategy: Implications for Growth and Debt (with Yi Xiong), in Ross, D. (Editor), 2014, Mozambique Rising: Building a New Tomorrow, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [IMF WP version]

    Media coverage:
    Deutsche Welle, 14 January 2014, article and telephone interview (dubbed in Portuguese) [go to article]

    Video of conference presentation: CSAE Conference 2014, Oxford University, 23 March 2014 [go to video]
  2. Public Debt Targeting. An application to the Caribbean (with Alejandro Guerson), in Gaston, G. (Editor), 2014, Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [IMF WP version]

Policy Papers

  1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: the Role of External Factors (with Futoshi Narita, Andrea Presbitero and Felipe Zanna), Box 1.2, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [download]

  2. Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability (with Yi Xiong), Appendix IV, Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Mozambique, IMF Country Report No. 13/200, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. [download]