Giovanni Mastrobuoni

Carlo Alberto Chair

Collegio Carlo Alberto

Professor of Economics

University of Turin (ESOMAS)


Professor of Economics (on unpaid leave)

Department of Economics, University of Essex

Research fellow IZA

PhD in Economics, Princeton University

Research Fields

Public Economics, Labor Economics, Economics of Crime, Applied Econometrics

Curriculum vitae


Contact Information

Collegio Carlo Alberto

Piazza Arbarello 8

10122 Torino, Italia


Department of Economics

University of Essex

Wivenhoe Park


Essex CO4 3SQ


Publications - refereed

Leave the Door Open? Prison Conditions and Recidivism (Accepted American Economic Journal: Applied Economics), with Daniele Terlizzese

Silence of the Innocents: Undocumented Immigrants' Underreporting of Crime and their Victimization Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2020, 39 (4), 1214-1245 , with Antonio Nicolo' and Stefano Comino (WP version)

The Race Between Deterrence and Displacement: Theory and Evidence from Bank Robberies, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2021; 103 (3): 547–562 with Vikram Maheshri (WP version)

Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity, The Review of Economic Studies, 2020, 87(6), 2727-2753 (WP version)

Partners in Crime: Evidence from Recidivating Inmates, with Pierre Rialland, Italian Economic Journal, 2020

Police Disruption and Performance: Evidence from Recurrent Redeployment Within a City, Journal of Public Economics, August 2019, 176, 18-31. (WP version)

Does Immigration Increase Crime? Migration Policy and the Creation of the Criminal Immigrant. Cambridge University Press, 2019, with F. Fasani, P.. Pinotti and E. Owens

Optimising Criminal Behavior and the Disutility of Prison, with David Rivers, The Economic Journal, April 2019, 129(619): 1364-1399 (WP version)

Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition, with Gani Aldashev, Political Science Research and Methods, 7(2), April 2019 , pp. 289-310. (WP version)

Rationalizable Suicides: Evidence from Changes in Inmates' Expected Sentence Length, with Nadia Campaniello and Theo Diasakos Journal of the European Economic Association, April 2017, 15 (2): 388-428. (WP version)

Returns to Education in Criminal Organizations: Did Going to College Help Michael Corleone?, with Nadia Campaniello and Rowena Gray, October 2016, Economics of Education Review, 58, 242-258. (WP version)

The Value of Connections: Evidence from the Italian-American Mafia, The Economic Journal, 125(586), 256-288, August 2015. (WP version)

Legal status and the criminal activity of immigrants, with Paolo Pinotti, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 7(2), 175-206, April 2015. (WP version)

Price As a Signal of Product Quality: Some Experimental Evidence, with Franco Peracchi, and Alex Tetenov, Journal of Wine Economics 9(2): 135-152, 2014, . (WP version)

Political Economy of the Social Security Disability Insurance: Theory and Evidence of Gubernatorial Learning, with Radha K. Iyengar, IZA Journal of Labor Policy 3:16, 2014.

Beneath the Surface: the Decline in Gender Injury Gap, with Tiziano Razzolini, Roberto Leombruni, and Mario Pagliero, Labour Economics, 30, 2014, . (WP version)

The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons , with Alessandro Barbarino, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6(1), February 2014, 1-37, Online appendix . (WP version)

Centralized vs. Decentralized Police Hiring in Italy and the US, with Paolo Buonanno, in Lessons from the Economics of Crime, Ed. P. Cook, S. Machin, O. Marie and G. Mastrobuoni, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2013 .

Crime Economics in Its Fifth Decade, with Philip Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, in Lessons from the Economics of Crime, Ed. P. Cook, S. Machin, O. Marie and G. Mastrobuoni, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2013.

Organized Crime Networks: an Application of Network Analysis Techniques to the American Mafia, Review of Network Economics, Issue 3, September 2012, with Eleonora Patacchini. (WP version)

The Role of Information for Retirement Behavior: Evidence Based on the Social Security Statement, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 95, Issues 7-8, August 2011, Pages 913-925. (WP version)

Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 93, Issues 11-12, December 2009, Pages 1224-1233 (an extended WP Version)

Heterogeneity in Intra-Monthly Consumption Patterns, Self-Control, and Savings at Retirement, with Matt Weinberg, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 1(2): 163–89, August 2009. (WP version)

The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation, with Wioletta Dziuda, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 41(1), 101-129, February 2009. (WP version)

Public Pensions in Italy and Germany: A Comparison based on Panel Data, Rivista di Politica Economica, October 2000

Working Papers

Migration at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations in the Central Mediterranean Sea, with Claudio Deiana and Vikram Maheshri, *new*

Police Patrols and Crime, March 2018, with Jordi Blanes i Vidal

Criminal Discount Factors and Deterrence (Reject and Resubmit Review of Economic Studies, with David Rivers, February 2016

Police and Crime: Evidence from Dictated Delays in Centralized Police Hiring, with Paolo Buonanno, Feb 2012

The Relative Utility Hypothesis With and Without Self-reported Reference Wages, with Adrian de la Garza, Atsushi Sannabe, and Katsunori Yamada, November 2010

Do Social Security Recipients Smooth Consumption Between Checks? Evidence Using New Data With Variation in Pay Dates, with Matt Weinberg, January 2010

Non-refereed publications

Advances in the econometrics of crime, with Paolo Pinotti, Advances in the Econometrics of Crime, with Paolo Pinotti, in Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, (Eds.) Bruinsma, Gerben, Weisburd, David (Eds.) Springer Verlag Publishers, 2014.

Micro Modeling of Retirement Decisions in Germany, with A. Börsch-Supan, R. Schnabel and S. Kohnz in "Social Security and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation," NBER, Jonathan Gruber and David A. Wise, editors, Chicago University Press, 2004

Do Social Security Statements Affect Knowledge and Behavior?, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Issue in Brief, April 2011

Costi diretti e indiretti dell'evento rapina, with Laura Santariello, Pietro Scabellone, Bancaria Editrice, 2010


Criminal Careers and Criminal Firms, with Emily Owens

Migration and Wealth, with Enrico Moretti

The Signalling Value of Education, with Santiago Oliveros and Patrik Nolan

Hyperbolic Consumption and Health, with Matt Weinberg

Informational Costs vs. Myopia: Evidence from the Social Security Statement

Old papers

The Social Security Earnings Test Removal. Money Saved or Money Spent by the Trust Fund?, August 2006

Does Social Cohesion Affect Mortality?, March 2003

In the Media

Buone intenzioni, effetti negativi: migranti e soccorso nel Mediterraneo, April 5, 2021 Il Sole 24 Ore

Immigrati irregolari: vittime senza voce,, 23 October 2020

Die nicht beabsichtigten Folgen der Seenotrettung von Migranten, Neue Zuercher Zeitung, December 13, 2019

High-Seas Rescues Put Migrants in Harm's Way, Bloomberg. November 25, 2019

Furti e rapine: a sventarli ci pensa l’intelligenza artificiale! Altalex, May 2019

Missing Link: Predictive Policing – die Kunst, Verbrechen vorherzusagen, Heise, May 19, 2019

L'operazione Strade Sicure, soldi spesi bene, Econopoly, IlSole24Ore, June 1, 2018

The best mafia bosses used their BRAINS rather than their brawn: Study finds each year spent at school earned mob members 8% more income, The Daily Mail, December 13, 2017

Why the best mob bosses relied on brains, not brawn, The Times, December 13, 2017

When crime pays: mobsters who spent more time at school earned more money, The Conversation, December 11, 2017

How to Rob Banks, According to Economics, Quarz, June 1, 2017

The Italian Job, Marginal Revolution, May 29, 2017

Odd Lots: Stay in School, Even if You're Planning to Join the Mob, Bloomberg, January 2017

Wiseguys: Mobsters who went to college made more moolah than their less-educated mafia pals, Quartz, July 12, 2016

Even For Mobsters Getting A College Degree Pays Off, Fortune, July 9, 2016

Mafia criminals' income 'boosted by education', BBC News, June 14, 2016

Longer jail sentences do deter crime, but only up to a point, The Economist, March 29, 2016

Clever crooks get more money than dim-witted criminals, university study shows, Clacton Gazette, March 22, 2016

Mobster U: Even the Mafia benefits from more school, The Globe and Mail, March 22, 2016

BBC Essex Radio with Peter Holms, March 12, 2016 (Minute 14.30)

Refugees and Resources, Martin Sandbu, Fianancial Times, September 10, 2015

The Simplest Fix to Social Security, CNBC, August, 2015

Mafia neighbours are bad for business, new report finds, The Guardian, August 3, 2015

Carcere: verso una riforma condivisa. Il modello Bollate, l'Espresso, May, 2015

La Jihad fa «scuola» in carcere, Il Sole 24 Ore, January 17, 2015

Preso!, Wired, Dec 2014/Jan 2015

Il carcere aperto aumenta la sicurezza, Il Sole 24 Ore, May 29, 2014

Key Crime: le nouveau policier,, 11 February, 2014

Interview with il Mattino, January 25, 2013

Mario, l’udinese che "prevede" le rapine, Messaggero Veneto, October 21, 2013

Keycrime, L'algoritmo che prevede dove e quando avverranno le rapine, Panorama, September 4, 2013

Indulto e amnistia non sono l'unica soluzione,, October 13, 2013

Decreto carceri, è tutta una questione di selezione, LaVoce, June 25, 2013

La galera è un deterrente ma soltanto alla terza volta, La Stampa, June 22, 2013

46.000, L'Internazionale, October, 2012

Scontare la pena ma non in una galera, La Voce, September 28, 2012

Moot Loot: Stats Show Crime Doesn't Pay--for Most Bank Robbers, Scientific American, June 2012

Is pardoning prisoners the best way to keep jail costs low?, Economic Logic, April 2012

The path from knowledge to better decision making is not a straight one, Nudge, 2011

Social Security Statements Increase Knowledge, planadviser, April 12, 2011

Più immigrati più crimine? dipende dalla politica, La Voce, June 29, 2010

E oggi paghiamo l'indulto, La Voce, May 8, 2008

Dopo l'indulto colpi in banca raddoppiati, La Stampa, September 5, 2007

Gli scarcerati per clemenza costano il doppio dei detenuti, Il Giornale, September 5, 2007

Crimini e misfatti a un anno dall'indulto, La Voce, September 4, 2007

It's the euro's fault many Europeans say, NYT, January 23, 2006