Program 2015

May 28‐29, Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center (ICC); find campus map here

Registration desk will be open 8 am - 12 pm on Thursday and Friday in ICC 550

8:00 - 8:30 am: Continental breakfast, ICC 550

8:30 - 8:45 am: Welcoming address (Thur.), ICC 120

8:45 - 10:30 am: Sessions 1A-1F (Thur.) and 4A-4E (Friday), ICC 102, 104, 117, 118, 120

10:30 - 11 am: Coffee break, ICC 550

11 am - 12:45 pm: Sessions 2A-2E (Thur.) and 5A-5E (Friday)ICC 102, 104, 117, 118, 120

12:45 - 2 pm: Lunch

2 - 3:45 pm: Sessions 3A-3E (Thur.) and 6A-6E (Friday)ICC 102, 104, 117, 118, 120

4 - 5:45 pm: Panel Session (Thursday) in ICC Auditorium

6 - 7:30 pm: Reception (Thursday), Epicurean in Darnall Hall; see campus map above

Session Details (last updated 5/26/2015)

Thursday, May 28, 8:45 - 10:30 am

1A. International Trade I. ICC 102
Chair: Luciana Juvenal, International Monetary Fund
Spatial Concentration of Buyer-Seller Matches in International Trade: The Role of Institutions and Infrastructure
        Fariha Kamal, U.S. Census Bureau, and Asha Sundaram, University of Cape Town
Multi-Regional Firms and Industry Dynamics
        Antoine Gervais, University of Notre Dame
Learning and the Value of Relationships in International Trade
        Ryan Monarch, Federal Reserve Board, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, University of                Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Quality and the Great Trade Collapse
        Natalie Chen, University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo, and CEPR, and Luciana Juvenal,         International Monetary Fund

1B. Fiscal Policy and Transfers. ICC 104
Chair: Kamila Sommer, Federal Reserve Board
Raising the Inflation Target to Manoeuvre the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Fiscal Policy
       Raju Huidrom, the World Bank
Cross-Region Transfers in a Monetary Union
        Steven Pennings, World Bank
A Historical Welfare Analysis of Social Security: Who Did the Program Benefit?
        William Peterman, Federal Reserve Board, and Kamila Sommer, Federal Reserve                Board

1C. Exchange Rates. ICC 117
Chair: Yuxuan Huang, the George Washington University
Nonlinear Exchange Rate Exposure at the Firm Level
        Rehim Kilic, Department of Treasury
Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate Under Different Policy Regimes
        Yuxuan Huang, the George Washington University
Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability in Partially Dollarized Economies
        Marco Airaudo, Drexel University, and Luis-Felipe Zanna, International Monetary Fund

1D. Inflation and Inflation Persistence. ICC 118
Chair: Yamin Ahmad, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater
Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance
        Eric Gaus, Ursinus College
From Household Dynamics to Sluggish Inflation: Money Demand and the Velocity Mechanism
        Kersten Stamm, Georgetown University
Variance Decomposition of Prices in an Emerging Economy
        Fernando Borraz, Banco Central del Uruguay, and Joaquín Saldaín, Banco Central del         Uruguay
Exploring International Differences in Inflation Dynamics
        Yamin Ahmad, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater, and Olena Mykhaylova, University         of Richmond

1E. Development I. ICC 120
Chair: Bledi Celiku, Christopher Newport University
Parental Choice, Social Mobility and Race in Brazil
        Evelyn Nunes, the Pennsylvania State University
Infrascoping the Paradigm: Coping Experience as an Alternative Measure of Corruption in Developing Countries
        Adewale Oparinde, International Food Policy Research Institute, and Bledi Celiku,                Christopher Newport University
Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004-2012: Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data
        Hai-Anh Dang, World Bank, and Peter Lanjouw, VU University
Food Prices and Marketing Intermediaries: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Edible Oils Market in Bangladesh
        M. Shahe Emran, IPD and Columbia University, Dilip Mookherjee, Boston University,            Forhad Shilpi, DECRG and World Bank, M. Helal Uddin, University of Dhaka

1F. Environmental Economics. ICC 116
Chair: Claire Brunel, Georgetown University
Regional Differences and the Distributional Effects of Regulatory Environmental Policies: A Case Study of U. S. Crude Oil Refineries
        Henry O. Akaeze, Michigan State University, and Adesoji Adelaja, Michigan State
Tipping Points and Business-as-Usual in a Global Carbon Commons
        Rodrigo Harrison, Universidad Catolica de Chile, and Roger Lagunoff, Georgetown                University
Environmental Policies, Innovation, Technology Adoption, and Fuel Economy: Evidences from the US Automobile Industry
        Yichen Zhou, University of Maryland
Green Innovation and Green Manufacturing: Links between Environmental Policies, Innovation and Production
        Claire Brunel, Georgetown University

Thursday, May 28, 11 am - 12:45 pm

2A. International Trade II. ICC 102
Chair: Jose Asturias, Georgetown University
Trade Effects of Customs Reform: Evidence from Albania
        Ana M. Fernandes, the World Bank, Russell Hillberry, the World Bank, Alejandra
        Mendoza Alcántara, the World Bank
Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
        Lance Kent, College of William and Mary
Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India
        Jose Asturias, Georgetown University, Manuel García-Santana, Université Libre de
        Bruxelles, Roberto Ramos, Bank of Spain
The Role of Direct Flights in Trade Costs
        Demet Yilmazkuday, Florida International University, and Hakan Yilmazkuday, Florida 
        International University

2B. Firm Behavior. ICC 104
Chair: Olga Timoshenko, George Washington University
Discrimination in Organizations
        Wiroy Shin, the Pennsylvania State University
Firm Learning and Growth
        Costas Arkolakis, Yale University and NBER, Theodore Papageorgiou, McGill University,
        and Olga Timoshenko, George Washington University
Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
        Marcio Cruz, the World Bank

2C. International Capital Flows. ICC 117
Chair: Eylem Ersal-Kiziler, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Estimating Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies with Heterogeneous Panels
        Marco A. Hernández, Banco de Mexico
Foreign Exchange Risk and Debt Flows to Peripheral Europe
        Eylem Ersal-Kiziler, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, and Ha Nguyen, the World
Uncertainty, Capital Flows, and Maturity Mismatch
        Nathan Converse, Federal Reserve Board
Uncertainty and International Capital Flows
        Francois Gourio,  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and NBER, Michael Siemer,
        Federal Reserve Board, and Adrien Verdelhan, MIT Sloan and NBER

2D. Monetary Policy I. ICC 118
Chair: Nathaniel Throckmorton, College of William and Mary
The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty
        Michael Plante,  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Alexander Richter, Auburn University,
        and Nathaniel Throckmorton, College of William and Mary
External Shocks, Banks and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy
        Yasin Mimir, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and Enes Sunel, Central Bank of
        the Republic of Turkey
Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia
        John Rogers, Federal Reserve Board
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Tenure Choice as an Explanation for the Price Puzzle
        Daniel Dias, Federal Reserve Board, and Joao Duarte, University of Illinois at

2E. Development II. ICC 120
Chair: Caitlin Brown, Georgetown University
Demographic Responses to a Political Transformation: Evidence of Women’s Empowerment from a Natural Experiment in Nepal
        Jayash Paudel, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Pedro de Araujo, Colorado
Network Effects, Social Comparisons and Welfare Gains to Origin Households: Comparing the Dynamics of Internal and International Migration of South Indians
        Ganesh Seshan, Georgetown University
White or Black Hat? An Economic Analysis of Computer Hacking
        Caitlin Brown, Georgetown University
A Tale of Transition: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China, 1986-2009
        Haiyan Ding, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and Hui He, International
        Monetary Fund and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Thursday, May 28, 2 - 3:45 pm

3A. Uncertainty. ICC 102
Chair: Fabian Valencia, International Monetary Fund
Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit
        Fabian ValenciaInternational Monetary Fund
Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Managerial Risk Aversion and Investment Dynamics
        Jonathan Goldberg, Federal Reserve Board
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Economic Activity: Investigating Two Different Measures
        Seohyun Lee, University College London

3B. Topics in Finance. ICC 104
Chair: Richard Loeser, Georgetown University
Institutions and Return Predictability in Oil-Exporting Countries
        Sirio Aramonte, Federal Reserve Board, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Federal Reserve
        Board, and Justin Shugarman, Federal Reserve Board
The (Un)Intended Consequences of Regulation in Inefficient Markets: Evidence from Private Equity Placements in China
        G. Nathan Dong, Columbia University, Ming Gu, Renmin University of China, and
        Hua He, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business
Returns to Active Management: the Case of Hedge Funds
        Maziar Kazemi, Federal Reserve Board, and Ergys Islamaj, Vassar College
The Cross Section of Expected Auto Loan ABS Returns
        Richard Loeser, Georgetown University

3C. Household Risk and Microcredit. ICC 117
Chair: Peter Bardsley, the University of Melbourne
Efficient Microlending without Joint Liability
        Ahmet Altinok, Arizona State University, and Can Sever, University of Maryland
Migration, Agricultural Production, and Liquidity Constraints: Impacts of Randomized Credit Access
        Shu Cai, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Competing Lending Platforms, Endogenous Reputation, and Fragility in Microcredit Markets
        Peter Bardsley, the University of Melbourne, and Rachael Meager, Massachusetts 
        Institute of Technology

3D. Banking and Credit. ICC 118
Chair: Zhe Fu, the George Washington University
The Inequality Dynamics and Welfare Implications of Reducing Financial Intermediation Cost
        Zhe Fu, the George Washington University
Uncertainty and the Shadow Banking Crisis: A Structural Estimation
        Xu Tian, University of Rochester
The Bank Lending Channel in a Frontier Economy: Evidence from Loan-Level Data
        Charles Abuka, Bank of Uganda, Ronnie Alinda, Bank of Uganda, Camelia Minoiu, 
        International Monetary Fund, Jose-Luis Peydro, ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 
        Cass, CREI, Barcelona GSE and CEPR, and Andrea Presbitero, International 
        Monetary Fund and MoFiR
Risk Taking, Risk Compensation, and Interest Rates: Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Markets
        Seung Jung Lee, Federal Reserve Board, Lucy Liu, International Monetary Fund, and 
        Viktors Stebunovs, Federal Reserve Board

3E. Topics in Microeconomic Theory. ICC 120
Chair: Ivan Pastine, University College Dublin
Identifying a Screening Model with Multidimensional Private Information
        Gaurab Aryalthe University of Chicago
Dynamic Network Formation: Theory and Estimation
        Terence Johnson, University of Notre Dame
Achievement Estimates and Deviations From Cardinal Comparability
        Eric Nielsen, Federal Reserve Board
Equilibrium Existence and Expected Payoffs in All-­Pay Contests with Constraints
        Ivan Pastine, University College Dublin, and Tuvana Pastine, National University of 
        Ireland Maynooth

Thursday, May 28, 4 - 5:45 pm

Panel Session, ICC Auditorium
The Biggest Challenges in Open Economy Macro Over the Next 30 Years
        Panelists:    Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
                            Olivier Jeanne, John Hopkins University
                            Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
                            Linda Tesar, Council of Economic Advisers
        Moderator:   Matthew Canzoneri, Georgetown University

The session is dedicated to the memory of Dr. David Amdur, a graduate of the Georgetown Economics program, and is co-sponsored by GCER and the Department of Economics at UW-Whitewater

Friday, May 29, 8:45 - 10:30 am

4A. Time Series and Forecasting. ICC 102
Chair: Laura Coroneo, University of York
Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast
        Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany, SUNY, Huaming Peng, University at Albany, SUNY, 
        and Xuguang (Simon) Sheng, American University
Can a Subset of Forecasters Beat the Simple Average in the SPF?
        Constantin Burgi, the George Washington University
The Role of Recessions in Predicting Future Output Growth
        Tara Sinclair, the George Washington University, and Xudong Guo, the George 
        Washington University
Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve
        Laura Coroneo, University of York, Domenico Giannone, Federal Reserve Bank of
        New York, and Michele Modugno, Federal Reserve Board

4B. Housing and Business Cycles. ICC 104
Chair: Alessandro Rebucci, Johns Hopkins University
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies
        Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England, Luis Felipe Cespedes, Universidad Adolfo
        Ibanez, and Alessandro RebucciJohns Hopkins University
Taxation, Credit Frictions and the Cyclical Behavior of the Labor Wedge
        Salem Abo-Zaid, Texas Tech University
Accounting for Dispersion over the Business Cycle
        Robert Kurtzman, Federal Reserve Board, and David Zeke, UCLA

4C. Trade, Crises, and Sovereign Default. ICC 117
Chair: Antonio Cusato Novelli, Rutgers University
Endogenous Recovery Rates and Sovereign Default
        Yasin Kursat Onder, Central Bank of Turkey
Sovereign Default, Political Instability and Political Fragmentation
        Antonio Cusato Novelli, Rutgers University
Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium
        Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Indiana University, Leonardo Martinez, IMF, and
        Francisco Roch, IMF

4D. Monetary Policy II. ICC 118
Chair: Mauricio Villamizar, Georgetown University
Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Steady States: an Empirical Investigation
        Gilles Dufrenot, Aix-Marseille University, and Anwar Khayat, Aix-Marseille University
Monetary Policy under Uncertain Economic States and Learning
        Xiaohan Ma, the George Washington University
The Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policies: Evidence from the Central Bank of Turkey
        Yasin Kursat Onder, Central Bank of Turkey, and Mauricio Villamizar, Georgetown
Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Diverse Beliefs
        Mordecai Kurz, Stanford University, Maurizio Motolese, Universita’ Cattolica di 
        Milano, Giulia Piccillo, Utrecht University, and Howei Wu, Shanghai University of 
        Finance and Economics

4E. Empirical Labor Economics. ICC 120
Chair: David Phillips, Hope College
Underestimating Discrimination: Evidence of Job Search Externalities in Résumé Experiments
        David Phillips, Hope College
Over-education, Occupational Mobility and Mismatch over the Life-cycle
        Ammar Farooq, Georgetown University
Idiosyncratic Labour Market Risk: Are Couples Differ from Single Individuals?
        Duangsuda Sopchokchai, University of Ottawa
Unobserved Worker Quality and Inter-Industry Wage Differentials
        Suqin Ge, Virginia Tech, and Joao Macieira, Virginia Tech

Friday, May 29, 11 am - 12:45 pm

5A. Applied Time Series. ICC 102
Chair: Matthew Zahn, the George Washington University
Improving Real-Time Employment Estimates: A State-Space Signal Extraction Approach
        Tara Sinclair, the George Washington University, and Matthew Zahn, the George
        Washington University
When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted? 
        Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, Federal Reserve Board, and John Roberts, Federal 
        Reserve Board
The Short-Term Effects of Tax Changes in the United States: Evidence for State Dependence
        Ufuk Devrim Demirel, Congressional Budget Office
Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes
        Syed M. Hussain,  Lahore University of Management Sciences, and Samreen Malik, 
        New York University - Abu Dhabi

5B. Fiscal Policy, Consumption, and Investment. ICC 104
Chair: M. Saif Mehkari, University of Richmond
Demand-Driven Propagation: Evidence from the Financial Crisis
        Ha Nguyen, the World Bank
The Investment Effect of Taxation - Evidence from a Corporate Tax Kink
        Anne Brockmeyer, the World Bank
How Sensitive Are Taxpayers to Marginal Tax Rates? Evidence from Income Bunching in the U.S.
        Jacob A. Mortenson, Georgetown University and Congressional Joint Committee on 
        Taxation, and Andrew Whitten, Georgetown University and Congressional Joint 
        Committee on Taxation
Schools and Stimulus
        Bill Dupor, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and M. Saif Mehkari, University of 

5C. Lifetime Capital Allocation, Pensions, and Demographics. ICC 117
Chair: Olena Mykhaylova, University of Richmond
A Model of Competitive Saving Over the Life-cycle, and its Implications for the Saving Rate Puzzle in China
        Guangyu Nie, Georgetown University
Rapid Aging and Pension Reform: The Case of China
        Hui He, International Monetary Fund and Shanghai University of Finance and 
        Economics, Ning Lei, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and
        Dongming Zhu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Demographics and Aggregate Household Saving in Japan, China, and India
        Chadwick C. Curtis, University of Richmond, Steven Lugauer, University of Notre 
        Dame, and Nelson C. Mark, University of Notre Dame and NBER
Impact of Pension System Structure on International Financial Capital Allocation
        Olena Mykhaylova, University of Richmond, and James Staveley-O'Carroll, College of 
        William and Mary

5D. Financial Structure and Macroeconomy. ICC 118
Chair: An Wang, University of Maryland
The TED Spread in a New Keynesian Model with Money and Banking
        Majid Bazarbash, Carnegie Mellon University
Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market
        Daniel Beltran, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Valentin Bolotnyy, Harvard 
        University, and Elizabeth Klee, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Implicit Guarantees, Agency Cost, and Shadow Banking
        An Wang, University of Maryland

5E. Macro Labor and Matching. ICC 120
Chair: Monica Robayo-Abril, Georgetown University
Household Production, Labor Supply, and Monetary Policy
        Dasha Safonova, University of Notre Dame
Deadlines and Matching
        Garth Baughman, University of Pennsylvania
Tax-Transfers Schemes, Informality and Search Frictions in a Small Open Economy
        Monica Robayo-Abril, Georgetown University
Wage Bargaining and the Beveridge Curve
        Jordan Marcusse, Georgetown University

Friday, May 29, 2 - 3:45 pm

6A. Risk Sharing. ICC 102
Chair: Vida Bobic, the George Washington University
Who Should I Share Risk with? Gifts Can Tell: Theory and Evidence from Rural China
        Ruixin Wang, Tilburg University
Corporate Payout Smoothing: A Variance Decomposition Approach
        Edward Hoang, University of Colorado, and Indrit Hoxha, Pennsylvania State University
Portfolio Diversification, Capital Flows and the Lucas Puzzle
        Vida Bobic, the George Washington University, and Constantin Burgi
Remittances over the Cycle: Dynamics and Smoothing
        Ergys Islamaj, Vassar College, Ayhan Kose, the World Bank, and Seyed Reza Yousefi, 
        the World Bank

6B. Volatility and Asset Pricing. ICC 104
Chair: Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Federal Reserve Board
Downside Variance Risk Premium
        Bruno Feunou, Bank of Canada, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Federal Reserve Board, 
        and Cedric Okou, UQAM
Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum
        Ilias Filippou, University of Warwick, Arie Gozluklu, University of Warwick, and
        Mark Taylor, University of Warwick
Value, Momentum and Market Timing
        Ilias Filippou, Warwick Business School, and Pedro A. Garcia-Ares, University of 

6C. Migration. ICC 117
Chair: Maggie Liu, Georgetown University
Climbing atop of Giants’ Shoulders: The Role of Migration in Endogenous Growth
        Thomas Lebesmuehlbacher, University of Georgia
Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade
        Jingting Fan, University of Maryland
Opening Up and Studying Up: How does Trade Liberalization Affects Education Attainment Decisions in China?
        Maggie Liu, Georgetown University
Human Capital of Children and Asian Intermarriages - Does Gender of the Immigrant Parent Matter?
        Sukanya Basu, Vassar College, and Michael Insler, United States Naval Academy

6D. Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy. ICC 118
Chair: Bora Durdu, Federal Reserve Board
Co-ordinating Monetary and Macroprudential Policies
        Bianca De Paoli, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Matthias Paustian, Federal 
        Reserve Board
Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy
        Andrea Ajello, Federal Reserve Board, Thomas Laubach, Federal Reserve Board, 
        David Lopez-Salido, Federal Reserve Board, and Taisuke Nakata, Federal Reserve 
Sovereign Risk and Bank Balance Sheets: The Role of Macroprudential Policies
        Bora Durdu, Federal Reserve Board

6E. Political Economy. ICC 120
Chair: Tuvana Pastine, National University of Ireland Maynooth
Bureaucrats and Politicians: How Does Electoral Competition Affect Bureaucratic Performance?
        Anusha Nath, Boston University
Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies
        Sanjeev Gupta, International Monetary Fund, Estelle Xue Liu, International Monetary 
        Fund, and Carlos Mulas-Granados, International Monetary Fund
Incumbency Advantage in an Electoral Contest
        Matt Cole, Florida International University, Ivan Pastine, University College Dublin, and 
        Tuvana Pastine, National University of Ireland Maynooth
Aggregate Uncertainty in Runoff Elections
        Benjamin Solow, Boston University