Cheltenham 2017             Gaultstats   -   The Trends That Matter




18th February 2017.  Thank you very much for visiting my google site.  All now has been transferred to

www.gaultstats.com  with a simpler address,  new features and hopefully easier to navigate. I hope you like it and will support The Samaritans, this years charity.  Please now click on that big address.


'Heaving oceans of stats.  Gaultstats ..contains every stat ever compiled about the festival... lets say it's thorough....provides plenty to ponder'.  Robin Gibson  (Racing Post Sunday Supplement 1st March '15)

'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats... certainly things I didn't know.'  Matt Tombs (author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2016 - The Bible)



I first attended this fantastic Festival in 1985.  Gaultstats has been created from information collected since.  All races are covered.  Please feel free to sample. Site guidance below the links. If sending to a friend, either send them the link or just to tell them to google  'Gaultstats'.    In 2016, 10000 site visits in the 4 weeks before the Festival.

In 2016 we raised £1600 for Marie Curie. In 2015 it was £1300 for Cancer Research.  In 2014 it was close to £1000 for the Jonjo Bright Trust. Thank you all.

In 2017 I am asking for a small donation to the Samaritans charity.  Wesley a good friend of mine gives freely of his time to do three shifts a week in the Bangor Samaritans.  He and many others takes phone calls and emails from all over the UK and Ireland.  The Samaritans is financed solely by charitable so please take a minute, click on my virginmoneygiving page above and get your card out. Should you not be aware of the Samaritans work in these islands just go to www.samaritans.org


                                            'Gault Is the Statsman' - Margie McCloone Irish Field 5th March '16 

           THE FESTIVAL 2017 - Order of Running      
                Champion DayTuesday 14th March (Old Course)                                 General
                1.30     Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1) 2m 110yds   
                2.10     Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (G1) 2m            
                2.50     Ultima Handicap Chase (G3) 3m 1f
                3.30     Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (G1) 2m 110yds  
                4.10     OLBG Mares' Hurdle (for the David Nicholson trophy)(G1) 2m 4f   
                4.50     The JT McNamara National Hunt Steeple Chase Abt 4m
                   5.30     The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase 2m abt 5f 
               Ladies DayWednesday 15th March (Old Course)                                 General 
                1.30      Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (G1) 2m abt 5f  
RSA Chase (G1) 3m abt 1/2f 
                2.50      Coral Cup Hurdle (Handicap) 2m abt 5f
                3.30      Betway Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase (G1) Abt 2m 
                4.10      Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 7f 
                4.50      Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt ½f 
                5.30      Weatherbys Champion Bumper (G1) 2m abt ½f
              St Patrick's ThursdayThursday 16th March (New Course)                    General
                1.30      JLT Novices' Chase (G1) 2m abt 4f 
                2.10      Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) Abt 3m 
Ryanair Chase (G1) 2m abt 5f 
Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle(G1) abt 3m
                4.10      Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Handicap Chase) 2m abt 5f 
Trull House Stud Mares Novice Hurdle (G2) 2m 1f
               5.30      Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) 3m abt 2f

                Gold Cup DayFriday 17th March (New Course)             
                1.30      JCB Triumph Hurdle (G1) 2m abt 1f                                                             
                2.10      Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt 1f  
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (G1) abt 3m
                3.30      Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (G1) 3m abt 2 ½ f  
                4.10      St James's Palace Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m abt 2 ½ f 
                4.50      Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 2m abt 4½ f 
                5.30      Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m abt ½ f

The Cheltenham Festival is where all National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning.  Being involved with a winner ensures an entry in the National Hunt Role of Honour even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country Chase.  Harry Fry Racing Post 6 Feb 2017 talking about Unowhatimeanharry.  'A Festival winner is what everyone in National Hunt racing strives to achieve and to get the first one was a watershed moment and a huge achievement for the team'.  Since all are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely to succeed.  But remember there are no hard and fast rules (they are horses, after all).  Pricewise himself will often scoff at stats but has been heard discussing profiles.  Morning Line 9 Jan 2016 - 'Older horses don't win Welsh Nationals'  Careful, Tom, sounded like a view based on trends? 
Should you back 10yr olds and older in championship races?  How important is momentum for trainers and jockeys?  On which Festival day do Irish trainers have the least success?   Which race in the festival has had too many successful favourites recently?  What about those who were beaten favourites last time?  Outside Graded class, at what price should 'value' be reassessed?  Is course or festival form that important?  Especially in handicap hurdles? 

Gaultstats contains all this information and more.              

The links above should take you to directly to each race.  On each race page the top few lines (in bold) will summarise a possible profile of the winner.  That profile will concentrate on trends that are correct to 90%+ over the last few Festivals.  Each race page will then comprise the evidence to back up that profile.  The summary may also suggest something that is overdue to happen.  For example, if the favourite is due to oblige.  Horses identified by red italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading.  As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in.

General page covers lots of stuff that doesn't really refer to any specific race. These include jockeys, trainers, stats on Pricewise, preview nights, course winners, Fate of the Favourites et al.   Click on the link and prepare to be amazed.  (well, maybe)   
On each day of the Festival I will post selections for each race at the top of this page.  These selections will be my view of those with the best chances/value as identified by Gaultstats.  I used to make effort not to tip anything that will be 3/1 or shorter (the reason that might be changed is to be found in the General page).     2016 winners tipped (from small numbers) included Itsafreebee 14s w/o 2, Diamond Court, Empire of Dirt, Tango De Juilllet 33 ew.  Yes, surprised me too.

The hope remains that you make money in Festival week and this site in some small way contributes to your successful decision making processes.

As ever, a labour of love, 



                                                                                (Feedback please to bgault01@gmail.com.  Any reasonable theories researched).

(Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.(Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.   It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (3m hcap) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 last year.  (Thank you OLBG).  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day.)