Home

Welcome to our information website. We develop, test and make available Analytic Indicators that are designed to provide traders and investors with an edge with which to trade the markets profitably. We subscribe to the theory that the simpler a complex subject can be made, the more robust its utility across a variety of securities, strategies and time frames. Don't make the common mistake of equating needless complexity with efficiency. Complex indicators usually tend to be curve fitted to very specific market conditions - which have lesser probabilities of exact occurrence in the future.  

We provide real-time access to our Indicators through users' preferred data, charting and trade execution service providers. We also provide training and guidance on how to interpret the more subtle nuances of our Indicators. Please contact us for a list of professional service providers who offer our Indicators. 

"Successful traders and investors know that there are no absolute certainties in the markets - only probabilities". 

We have found that our indicators provide a distinct edge to profitably trade equities, futures and currencies in about 70% of typical market conditions. We know that our indicators can be profitably deployed by traders of all time frames - from day traders to medium term position traders.

One of our key Indicators is the GAiiN Cycle Indicator™ developed exclusively for us by veteran hedge funds consultant -  Dr A S Johan. 

The GAiiN Cycle Indicator (Gray lines within the Histogram) calculates and plots a securities' current cycle using volatility adjusted, adaptive lengths to determines cycle driven, high probability price change points (Blue lines in the Histogram). 

We have successfully tested the indicator on a variety of stocks, futures and currency pairs over extensive historical and walk-forward data. We provide below, for illustration purposes only, a chart of Citigroup with the GAiiN Cycle Indicator inserted at the base of the chart:-

For optimal trade entries and exits, traders and investors need to be alerted of a potential cyclical change in prices, be it a reversal or a
continuation of the current trend, a few days (bars) before such changes occur and not after the change has already taken place. 

The GAiiN Cycle Indicator is an effective tool to alert users to potential cyclical price changes - a few days (bars) before such probable changes.

Once alerted of a potential price change, most experienced traders will know how to manage entries and exits. However, we do provide an easy to follow visual trade management guide with all our indicators...just in case. 
Click on image to enlarge >>>

So what are Cycles? 

Very simply, when scientists talk about cycles, they are talking about sequences of events that repeat themselves. Some cycles are very simple. For example, the seasons of the year represent a cycle in that they always repeat – Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall, and then back to Winter! Commodities have a very close correlation to weather cycles. 

Are there cycles in nature? 

"For everything there is a season and a time for every matter under heaven." Ecclesiastes 3:1. 

There are natural rhythms in nature that affect us, like day and night, new moon and full moon, and the seasons - all important to our lives. Internally, we also have cycles known as biological clocks. These clocks control our metabolism and daily hormone levels, the menstrual cycles, the speed and degree of childhood development, and the onset of adolescence and menopause. Other internal cycles are reflected in our emotional, mental, and physical energies as well as more subtle ones that influence our ingenuity, compassion, appreciation of beauty, our self-awareness, and our spiritual awareness. 

Do cycles exist in markets? 

Cycles exist in the economy, nature and the financial markets. The basic business cycle encompasses an economic downturn, bottom, economic upturn and a top. Cycles in nature include the four seasons and solar activity. Cycles are also part of technical analysis of the financial markets. Cycle theory asserts that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements in the financial markets. 

Arguments that cycles exist in the market arise not only from fundamental considerations or direct measurement but also on philosophical grounds related to physical phenomena. The natural response to any physical disturbance is harmonic motion. 

A cycle is an event, such as a price high or low, which repeats itself on a regular basis. Price and time cycles are used to anticipate turning points. 

Even though there is adequate evidence that cycles do indeed exist, cycle lengths change over time and even seem to disappear at times. While this may sound discouraging, trends are the same way. There is indeed evidence that markets trend - but not all the time. Trends disappear when markets move into a trading range and reverses when prices change direction.  

Cycles can also disappear and even invert. Do not expect cycle analysis to pinpoint reaction highs or lows.  Instead, cycle analysis should be used in conjunction with other aspects of fundamental or technical analysis to anticipate exploitable turning points. 

So what if cycles exist in markets? 

Cycle determination and identification can be a powerful analytical tool for identifying potential points in time when a trend could be pausing, continuing or even reversing. The fact that a trader is aware of this potential change, can add confidence to the decision making process. Potential cyclic turning points can be used by short to medium term traders and investors in the financial markets. Everyone has probably heard the old adage "trade with the trend", if the trend is up, buy or buy the dips; if the trend is down, sell or sell the rallies. Each dip or peak is a short term cycle within a longer term cycle. 

Can Market Cycles be identified? 

When all a trader has is a price chart or a table of past prices, a tool that can provide a reasonable indication of potential cyclical change in the near term direction of the market can be very useful indeed. 

However, .while there are many theories about broad market cycles, like the economic cycle, the business cycle, the money cycle and the presidential cycle, they are not very useful to someone trading a particular security – a stock, a currency pair, a stock index future, a bond future or a commodity futures contract… for the short to medium term. 

So what is needed? 

Active traders and investors need to be alerted of a potential cyclical change – be it reversal or a continuation of the current trend in specific securities - a few days (bars) before such change occurs and not after the change has taken place. What is needed therefore is an effective indicator that will be able to provide an alert of the potential cyclical change before such potential change. 

Take a second look at the Citigroup price chart with the GAiiN Cycle Indicator (shown earlier). It will be noted that even though the fundamentals of the company may not have changed, Citigroup’s price has fluctuated. It's price trend change cycle is not obvious or uniform as it is obviously affected by a myriad of external events and news. 

In spite of this however, the GAiiN Cycle Indicator  does effectively pinpoint potential near term cyclical price trend changes – several days (bars) before the change occurs. Although, the direction and duration of the cyclical change i.e. upwards, downwards, sideways and for what duration is not shown, experienced traders will no doubt know how to manage the potential change – whether adverse or favorable to their current position. 

Just being alerted and made aware of a potential cyclical change ahead of the actual change, is more than adequate. 

The GAiiN Cycle Indicator is fully automated and can be applied to a chart of any security and in any time compression. For users who need it, we do provide training on how to interpret the more subtle nuances of our Indicators. 

Please contact us for a list of professional service providers who offer access to the GAiiN Cycle Indicator

 

 

 

 

 


 

Subpages (2): About Indicators