Senior economist
European Department
International Monetary Fund
E-mail:fcaselli@imf.org
Personal homepages: Google scholar - IDEAS Repec
Twitter: @fgcaselli
CV: (October 2021)
On the Benefits of Repaying, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2025, (with Matilde Faralli, Paolo Manasse, and Ugo Panizza).
Gender and Employment in the COVID-19 Recession: Evidence on "She-cessions", Labor Economics, Volume 81, April 2023, 102308 (with J. Bluedorn, N.J. Hansen, I. Shibata, and M.M. Tavares)
Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age, IMF Economic Review, accepted (with F. Grigoli, D. Sandri, and A. Spilimbergo).
Expectations' anchoring and Inflation Persistence, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 32, September 2021 (with R. Bems, F. Grigoli, and B. Gruss). Anchoring Index Data available here
Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits, European Economic Review, Volume 136, July 2021 (with P. Wingender).
Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming (with R. Bems, F. Grigoli, and B. Gruss).
Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2021, CEPR Covid Economics Issue 66, 2021 (with F. Grigoli and D. Sandri).
Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Outcomes? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 63, June 2020 (with J. Reynaud).
Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock, Economics Letters, Volume 188, March 2020 (with R. Bems, F. Grigoli, and B. Gruss).
Non-linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets, International Finance, 2019; Vol 1:28 (with A. Roitman).
China's Rise, Asymmetric Trade Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes, Review of International Economics, Vol. 27, No 1 2019.
Did the FX Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic? Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol 8, No 2 (2017).
Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition, IMF WP 25/140 (with A.G. Dizioli).
Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications, IMF WP 24/211 (with H. Lin, F. Toscani and J. Yao).
Green Fiscal Rules: Challenges and Policy Alternatives, IMF WP 24/125 (with A. Lagerborg and P. Medas)
The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation: Evidence from Europe, IMF WP 22/124, (with J. Bluedorn, N.J. Hansen, I. Shibata, and M.M. Tavares)
On the Benefits of Repaying, IMF WP 21/233, (with M. Faralli, P. Manasse, and U. Panizza). R&R
Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth, IMF WP/20/78 - submitted (with F. Grigoli, R. Lafarguette, and C. Wang).
Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules, IMF WP/20/274 (with D. Stoehlker and P. Wingender).
Fiscal Monitor, April 2023, Chapter 1: On the Path of Policy Normalization, (with Enrico Di Gregorio, Gee Hee Hong, Andresa Lagerborg, Salma Khalid, Jiae Yoo). Blog: Fiscal Policy Can Promote Economic Stability and Address Risks to Public Finances.
The Return to Fiscal Rules (2022), IMF Staff Discussion Note, (with Hamid R Davoodi, Carlos Goncalves, Gee Hee Hong, Andresa Lagerborg, Paulo A. Medas, Anh D. M. Nguyen, and Jiae Yoo)
World Economic Outlook, October 2021, Chapter 2: Inflation Scares, (with S. Das, C. Koch, P. Mishra, and P. Wingender). Blog: Inflation Scares in an Uncharted Recovery.
World Economic Outlook, April 2021, Chapter 3: Recession and Recovery in Labor Markets: Patterns, Policies, and Responses to the COVID-19 shock, (with J. Bluedorn, W. Chen, N.J. Hansen, J. Mondragon, I. Shibata, and M. M. Tavares).
World Economic Outlook, October 2020, Chapter 2: The Great Lockdown, Dissecting the Economic Impact (with F. Grigoli, W. Lian, and D. Sandri). IMF Blog: COVID’s Impact in Real Time: Finding Balance Amid the Crisis
World Economic Outlook, April 2020, Chapter 2: Countering Future Recessions in Advanced Economies: Cyclical Policies in an Era of Low Rates and High Debt (with e M. Andrle, P. Barrett, J. Bluedorn, and W. Chen ). IMF Blog: Making Economies More Resilient to Downturns
World Economic Outlook, October 2018, Chapter 3: Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalizes (with R. Bems, B. Gruss, and W. Lian). IMF Blog: Central Bank Credibility Pays of in Times of Stress. Media coverage: Financial Times
Second Generation Fiscal Rules (2018), IMF Staff Discussion Note (Background Analytical Papers)
2017 Slovakia Article IV Selected Issues : EU Funds: Enhancing Absorption to Reduce Regional Disparities
Aid Effectiveness in Fragile States, in R. Chami, R. Espinoza and P. Montiel (eds.) Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, OUP, 2020, with A. Presbitero
Second World Bank - KDI Conference on Fostering Fiscal Sustainability (June 2024)
Keynote presentation at the 36th International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW) Virtual General Conference, Norway (August 2021)
Global Economy Meeting hosted by Banque de France (November 2020)
IMF 21st Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (November 2020)
Annual International Journal of Central Banking Research Conference (Oslo, May 2019)
XXII Workshop in International Economics and Finance (Kingston, March 2019)
The Future of Fiscal Integration in Europe (Brussels, February 2018)
US International Trade Commission (Washington DC, December 2017)
European Trade Study Group (Florence, September 2017)