My primary interests are in economic growth and development, macroeconomics, cliometrics and political economy
The Age of Mass Migration brought thousand of migrants every year to Argentina. Coming mostly from south--European countries, migrants settled and joined the labor market across counties in the fertile plains of the Pampas. In this article, we show two pieces of evidence, first we show that prior to the arrival of immigrants, land was already used for productive activities, ranching or agriculture being the main uses of land. Persistence in the use of land created differential labor opportunities in each county, and thus constrained the arrival and settlement of immigrants. In turn, immigrants' sorted themselves into different counties, taking advantage of their human capital, knowledge or skills and the labor opportunities. We argue the initial use of land and the allocation of human capital across the fertile plains had a profound effect over the short run occupational choice at the local level.
Social Science & Medicine, Volume 371, April 2025.
(joint with F. Borrescio-Higa and G. Bozzoli)
We study a large supplemental nutrition program aimed at reducing malnutrition in Chile and its impact on the education of children ages 6–13. Using individual-level data from representative samples from the 1970, 1982, and 1992 national censuses, along with variation in milk distribution across provinces and over time, we estimate the effect of exposure to the milk program on years of schooling. We find that the impact was greatest for cohorts born between 1969 and 1976, a period of significant program expansion. The main effect implies an increase of 0.18 years of schooling due to exposure to the program, accounting for about 20% of the overall growth in educational attainment. These results show the substantial role of an early-life nutritional intervention in improving long-term educational outcomes for a significant portion of the population.
Economía LACEA Journal, 24(1), p. 43–59, February 2025.
(joint with L. LLach and P. Schiaffino).
Argentina experienced notably greater land concentration than other frontier economies during the First Globalization, a disparity with lasting political and economic consequences. While existing scholarship emphasizes political explanations for this inequality, we propose a novel hypothesis: the pre-existing dominance of cattle ranching in the Pampas fostered a pattern of large landholdings that persisted even after agricultural expansion. Unlike North America, where agriculture advanced into territories previously roamed by buffalo, Argentina’s ranching legacy created a structural barrier to more egalitarian land distribution. Using census data we show that landholdings were significantly larger in counties of Buenos Aires province with a history of ranching. Our findings highlight the enduring impact of early productive specialization on long-run inequality.
Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, March 2025.
(joint with F. Borrescio-Higa, S. Johan and P. Valenzuela). submitted
Access to bank loans is often limited for small businesses in emerging economies, particularly during crises when capital becomes scarce. In such situations, financially underserved entrepreneurs may resort to unregulated financing options, often involving high-interest, illegal loans. This study aims to examine the relationship between informal, unregulated debt, financial education and well-being among entrepreneurs in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The empirical analysis is based on a novel large data set from the Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on small businesses survey. The data set contains information on 1,191 entrepreneurs enrolled in Chile’s Small Business Development Center program. Linear probability and instrumental variable models are used to analyze the data. Findings: Entrepreneurs with unregulated debt from moneylenders are more likely to have worse levels of mental well-being across multiple measures. Those who perceive a need for financial education are more likely to depend on informal, high-cost financing. Financial-advisory assistance reduces the probability of relying on unregulated debt. Practical implications: This study highlights the role of access to financial education and formal sources of capital in improving the well-being of entrepreneurs. Moreover, this study underscores the negative consequences of illegal lending practices often associated with organized crime, which target entrepreneurs with limited financing options. Originality/value: This research provides new insights into the adverse effects of informal, unregulated lending on well-being. It emphasizes how financial education can alleviate financial strain and improve mental health outcomes among small business owners.
International Journal of Public Health, 25, August 2022.
(joint with F. Borrescio-Higa and P. Valenzuela). Accepted.
The paper uses a unique survey of adults to examine the impact of financial distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on mental well-being. Results show unemployment and income loss are highly predictive of experiencing a range of financial problems, such as a lack of savings, as well as difficulties paying bills, consumer debt, and mortgage loans. In turn, financial distress leads to a higher prevalence of poor well-being and mental health deterioration, including feelings of depression, worry, and anxiety. Expansion of mental health assistance services are needed, as new diagnosis of mental health conditions has increased, but treatment has not, pointing to a barrier in the access to some mental health care services during the pandemic. Policies designed with the objective of improving financial education are necessary to increase precautionary savings and financial resilience, and alleviate the psychological burden of debt in the future.
(joint with Martin Fiszbein)
We investigate how historical patterns of primary production influenced development across local economies in Argentina. Our identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in the composition of primary production induced by climatic features. We find that locations specializing in ranching had weaker linkages with other activities, higher concentration in land ownership, lower population density, and less immigration than cereal-producing areas. Over time, ranching localities continued to exhibit lower population density and they experienced relatively sluggish industrialization. Ultimately, ranching specialization had large negative effects on long-run levels of income per capita and human capital. Our findings show that early patterns of production can have a crucial influence on development patterns, providing suggestive support to the staple theory of economic growth.
Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of population composition on long run economic development, by studying European migration to Argentina during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1914). I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that assigns immigrants to counties by interacting two sources of variation: the availability of land for settlement and the arrival of Europeans over time. Counties with historically higher shares of European population in 1914 have higher per-capita GDP 80 years later. I show that this long run effect is linked to the higher level of human capital that immigrants brought to Argentina. I show that Europeans raised literacy rates in the receiving counties, and that high-skilled Europeans played an important role in the onset of industrialization, owned most of the industrial establishments, and provided the majority of the industrial labour force.
(joint with M. Llorca, J. Navarreteo, R. Araya, M. Allende & J. Rivas)
This article provides the first series of Chilean adult male height for the whole of the twentieth century. The height of adult males increased by about 5.5 cm during the twentieth century, primarily during the second half of this period. This is the greatest improvement in biological welfare in Chilean history; Chilean males have never been as tall as they are today. Using a sample of around 36.371 individuals we document the evolution of the average height of Chilean soldiers (male) born from the 1900s to the 1990s. This sample can be safely taken as a good proxy of the average height of Chilean male population for the period under study. We provide an explanation of both the main determinants of physical stature and the rapid increase in height in Chile over this period.
(joint with F. Borrescio-Higa and G. Bozzoli)
In this paper, we analyze the relationship between adult height and early-life disease environment, proxied by the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the first year of life, using cohort-region level data for Chile for 1960-1989. IMRs show a remarkable reduction of 100 points per thousand over this thirty year period, declining from 119.4 to 21.0 per thousand. We also document a 0.96 cm increase in height per decade. We find that the drop in IMRs observed among our cohorts explains almost all of the long-term trend in rising adult heights, and that GDP per capita does not appear to have any predictive power in this context. Results are robust in a variety of specifications, which include area and cohort dummies, an adjustment for internal migration, and urbanization rates. Our results point to the long-term effect of a public health policy.
(joint with M. Llorca, J. Navarrete and R. Araya)
This article provides the first height estimates for the adult population for any period of Chilean history. Based on military records, it gives an analysis of the average heights of male soldiers in the last eight decades of the colonial period, c.1730s-1800s. The average height of Chilean men was around 167 centimetres, making them on average taller than men from Mexico, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Venezuela, but of a similar height to men from Sweden. However, Chilean men were clearly shorter than men in neighbouring Argentina, the USA and the UK. Chilean height remained stable during the 1740s-1770s, but it declined by some 2-3 centimetres between the 1780s and the 1800s, in line with a fall in real wages due to increasing food prices and population growth.
(joint with M. Llorca, J. Navarrete and R. Araya)
This article provides the first series of adult male height for 19th-century Chile. Our aim was not only to assess the trends indicated by height during this period, but also the relationship between stature and both GDP per capita and exports. Having analysed our data, our primary conclusion is that there was a reduction in height for cohorts born in the 1850s and 1860s with respect to cohorts born between 1820 and 1840. Height stagnated thereafter, with small to no improvement towards the end of the 19th century, in line with other Latin American countries for which there is comparable evidence. The increase in per capita GDP and exports during the second half of the century did not result in better biological welfare, as was the case in other Latin American countries during similar export booms.
(joint with C. Cussen and M. Llorca)
This paper provides the first survey of slave prices for Santiago de Chile, c.1773-1822. It also establishes the main determinants of slave prices during this period. We gathered and analyzed over 3,800 sale operations. Our series confirm the usual inverted U-shape when prices are plotted against age, and that age was a very important determinant of slave prices. We also found that: female slaves were systematically priced over male slaves, quite contrary to what happened in most other markets; the prime age of Santiago slaves was 16-34, a younger range than for most other places; male slave prices moved in the same direction as real wages of unskilled workers; and the impact of free womb laws on market prices in 1811 was dramatic.
Abstract: This paper analyzes how past economic history shapes individual beliefs in market economies. Evidence from a cross section of countries in Latin America indicates that economic crises suffered during early adulthood negatively affect individual beliefs. In particular, crises at an age of 22-25 years old reduce the probability of believing in a market economy as a source of economic growth, while crises at other ages are not relevant for the formation of beliefs.
Population Composition and Human Capital Creation: the Highschool Movement in the U.S.
Abstract: This paper studies how diversity affects the creation of human capital. I show how the composition of the population affected enrollment rates across counties in the U.S. at the beginning of the twentieth century. The mass European migration to the U.S. in this period of time provides for a change in the composition of the population. First I show with individual-level data that foreign individuals attend less school. Second, I analyze county-level data and measure diversity with a fractionalization index. I find that communities were fractionalization was higher experienced lower enrollment rates in early years, and this negative effect diminishes over time.
Teaching:
- Principles of Macroeconomics
- Macroeconomics
- Economic Growth