ACTUALLY MORE CURRENT
BUT I'LL BRING THIS UP-TO-DATE.
MORE TO FOLLOW FROM THE OTHER.
Wall Street Journal, 9/29/08
While DailyBail apparently advocates abolishing
the Fed, and despite being aware of Woodrow Wilson's misgivings as to its creation,EverNewEcoN
sees it as distinctly purposeful but recommends creating a new ombudsman function and more specifically replacing Mr. Bernanke, who simply advertised his policy beliefs prior to his selection, potentially now a "front" man, more than a "bag" man, with a Co-Chairpersonship consisting of Joseph Stiglitz and Elizabeth Warren.We'd then really be on our way to one hum-dinger of a fair, efficient financial system.
Recent Comments by EverNewEcoN:
skip quickly to items after this / academic economics is
much ado about NEWLY discovering worthwhile aspects about
EverNewEcoN claims being first:
The yuan is in fact (de facto / partly by design--of convenience:)
a safety valve release mechanism:
less than fully fixed to the $US,
the rest of Robert Mundell's "Impossible Trinity"
in tact and simply evolving thanks to the leadership of China's
Communist Party trying to allow China's emergence to continue along
with its own authoritarian existence.
To Chinese visitors: you work on your freedom. We'll work on our
EverNewEcoN believes a much larger stimulus,
aimed more squarely at the middle and lower classes
should have been effected, money printing and
the liquidity trap pushing on a string / sending
investment abroad / cutting off at the knees those
who made good decisions in favor of those who made
bad ones / eliminating much of the incentive to lend
(academic view--no forecast value;) essentially,
I agree with Richard Koo's more pure Keynesian
approach particularly to this debt bubble-driven
Change temp and humidity and all epidemiologics, those
two things otherwise taken for granted (beats me why some
religious people see science as a threat--is God supposed to
be scientifically lame?--) are tossed into a top hat.
Actually, water itself has multiple states of matter between
gas (vapor,) liquid (water,) and solid (ice--) though those
three states are entirely taken for granted, quite in arrogant
EverNewEcoN’s response to Sheila Bair’s plan to
GIVE $21,000 to homeowners to take a walk.
First those who sold bubble assets and retirees give their entire
interest income from their home equities and retirement savings
to the self-important idiots at the TBTF banks, who collapsed a
planet, and now Sheila Bair says pay mortgagors to take a walk?
Talk about punting!
Bud Bundy (pointer finger springs up:)
“And by that how would our finely honed (except for the conflicts of
interest and monopolies) economy value the banks’ collateral?
Now let me think. Oh yeah! We let the brilliant bankers make it
up. Fantasy land for all. Hey, with that we can all learn to become
Now maybe even I’ll get-me some.”
Dear Mr. No Drama Obama:
That pitcher’s looking tired. Get around to making a change one of these days?
EverNewEcoN: That m---’s up the system beyond recognition.
What retains the supply and demand dynamic but still allows for banking:
on a round-robin basis suspend Tier 1 requirements, allow for measures of
equitable solvency (even if asset-bankrupt, not cash-flow bankrupt,)
while simultaneously, also on a round-robin basis, recapitalizing banks.
Sadly, this should have been done with the TBTF banks at the very
outset of the crisis.
This is what EverNewEcoN has always said; EXCEPT:
marking up banks' reserves only so as to support fiscal stimulus,
not to support a Ponzi scheme and grant $Billions in bonuses for arrogant creeps who still don't realize how many
investment bank bankruptcies preceded their own era and how shady and stupid
their game was.
I hope that's what Mr. Obama's always had in mind. It hasn't always seemed that
way. Perhaps he paces the stress and is the "Dean Martin" President.
(People always HAVE referred to him as “no drama Obama.”)
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Forum Not Planned.
I MAY HOLD (AN) INVESTMENT POSITION(S) IN ANY / ALL INVESTMENT AREA(S) / INVESTMENT VEHICLE(S) DISCUSSED. THAT / THOSE POSITION(S) MAY BE ELIMINATED / REVERSED / REINSTATED AT ANY TIME.
EverNewEcoN: Fundamentally Change General Prevaling Temperature and Humidity,
And, Actually, the Very States of Nature Of Water Are Today Understood
To Have Intermediary States, AND ALL BETS ON BOTH HUMAN ECOLOGY
AND EPIDEMIOLOGICS ARE TOSSED INTO A TOP HAT.
The changes will accelerate and compound, actually
Tea Party munchkins (I think many are misled by the
demagoguery of puppeteers, their puppets in turn )
particularly in the Central
Plains would seem to be doing everything
possible to CAUSE grasshoppers to morph again.
Robert Johnson, businessinsider.com Jul. 21, 2011
Robert Reich, robertreich.org, 6/7/2011
(mandates in public health traditionally presumed constitutional)
EverNewEcoN: Got pre-existing risk factor but want to move to another state?
(interference with interstate commerce?)
Now you see it now you don't ongoing coverage?
Susan Heavey, Reuters, Feb. 18, 2011
Brian Wingfield and Julie Johnsson
Stresses of Unemployed Spouse Can Hurt Job Performance of Other Spouse, University of Colorado Study Finds
orig. Journal of Applied Psychology, by way of Biospace, Feb. 22, 2011
French lawmakers ban controversial shale gas drilling
Sophie Pilgrim, France24.com, 5/11/2011
Discussing the fate of Fannie and Freddie, with Stephen Moore, Wall Street Journal editorial board and Robert Reich former Labor Secretary, "TIME TO PRIVATIZE FANNIE & FREDDIE?" CNBC, April 9, 2010 Reich: If no end to TBTF, it will happen all over. EverNewEcoN: If it were a poker game, it should be put up or shut up, the pot keeps getting bigger for ALL participants.
Dr Mercedes Pascual of The University of Michigan talked about current trends in infectious diseases worldwide, and noted how these must be considered in terms of climatic, evolutionary, and socio-economic change.
She referred to the size and frequency of malaria epidemics, which have changed dramatically over the past decade in highland regions like in Kenya. Theories for these changes include drug resistance, increased exposure of non-immune populations, HIV/AIDS, land use changes, and climate change—the latter being “particularly controversial,” Dr Pascual said. She listed five points of contention relating to climate change: Is there evidence of significant trends in climate data? Do such trends result in a significant change in the disease itself? Do risk maps of suitability indices change over time? Is drug resistance a more important factor than climate change? Is climate variability—inter-annual rainfall variation—a major driver of disease dynamics? Dr Pascual reviewed a study in Kericho (Kenya), Kabale (Uganda), Gikongoro (Rwanda), and Muhanga (Burundi) indicating trends of increasing temperatures between 1950 and 2000. Temperature rise appears to affect mosquito populations, which in turn may correspond to increased malaria cases. Another study projected malaria infection rates from 1980 to the present by examining temperature change impacts on larvae life cycles in relation to human infection cycles. The study indicated increasing epidemics, but the median projected infection rate relative to temperature was smaller than actual historical observations. Temperature change could therefore explain a “significant fraction” of malaria increases in African highlands, but other factors exist, according to Dr Pascual. Citing climate change alone would be “unreasonable.” She said drug resistance is often cited as an alternative theory to climate change, but interaction between the two might also be possible. “If climate change is changing the transmission intensity, then this would also change the rate of evolution in malaria,” she said.
DAVID DERBYSHIRE , DailyMail, Jan. 21, 2010
concurs with David Goldman: CNBC, Larry Kudlow interviewing, April 11, 2011.
These comments are also particularly consistent with this.
Paul Krugman, NY Times Blog, April 5, 2011
(Ryan assumes 2.8% unemployment)
(quoting the N.Y. Times:)
“‘...Levels of iodine 131 entering the air can be very diluted, but if the iodine is deposited on grass eaten by cows, the cows will reconcentrate it in their milk by a factor of 1,000. This is mainly a concern with fresh milk, not for dairy products that are stored before consumption....’”
from Fukushima Fallout: Low Levels of Radiation in U.S. Milk,
Contaminated Marine Life in Japan
Kristina Chew, Care2.com, April 1, 2011
Radioactivity imparted on California crops measured by the University
of California, Berkeley Department of Nuclear Engineering
David Goldman, Asteri Capital/First Things Magazine and Donald Luskin,Trend Macro interviewed by Larry Kudlow, CNBC, April 4, 2011
EverNewEcoN substantially agrees with Mr. Goldman.
Ilargi, theautomaticearth,blogspot.com, April 4, 2011
Super-tacular piece on Bernanke / credit expansion
I see it as surrendering to past lack of oversight such that it
is tantamount to feeding a Ponzi scheme. I also am concerned
it cannot work. For whatever silliness it’s worth, I’ve
proposed this round-robin recapitalization plan as an
The government must not be cowed into copying the US by banks' threats
Nils Pratley, Guardian (U.K.,) March 29, 2011
EverNewEcoN: Dear Mr. Pratley: You are greatly needed here in the former colonies.
"'...If we return to a national currency, we can once again have the central bank of France issuing loans to the Treasury without interest.
That would enable us to get out of this spiral of debt in which we’ve been living for several years....'"
EverNewEcoN: Dear Ms. Le Pen: There's still no free lunch to be found that way.
It's either more debt (tied to the reserves)
or more dilution ultimately (outside those possibilities it's
reserves parked in bank account entries for no purpose other
than making people nervous,)
the same dilemma the public company Finance VP confronts every day.
However, thanks to you
Americans are no longer last to know.
"Miracle on Hudson" Co-Pilot Is Now Co-Pilot in Fight Against Disgusting, Economically Unjustified Arrogance and Greed
Bernanke Chose Printing “Reserves” Rather Than
Tapping Americans’ Savings Up Front, Hoping To
Simply Borrow More Intensely From Abroad, or
Letting the Money Center Banks’ Stakeholders Take
Their Own Losses, Their Creditors then SImply To
Work It Out. The Last Option Had Been Presented
As Risking Dire Consequences To The System
An informed economist can be dramatically more effective than can a famous one who acts on unsettled theory benefiting only wrongdoers for a fact.
Bob Eisenbeis, David R. Kotok, Ritholtz.com, July 7, 2009
France's premier says government will scrap a tax cap aimed at reducing tax burden on wealthy
Associated Press, March 3, 2011
J. Taylor, tsxgold.com, April 4, 2010
Charles B. Stockdale, Douglas A. McIntyre, Michael B. Sauter, 247wallst.com, March 4, 2011
CBS Chicago, March 4, 2011
EverNewEcoN: You're not supposed to see blood. That would encourage displacing some of the car culture with mass transit.
Richard D. Wolff, Prof. Emeritus U. Mass., Amherst, Visiting Prof.,
New School Univ., by way of truth-out.org, Feb. 14, 2011
(Click on Preview the Movie--No
Financial Relation with EverNewEcoN )
Maureen Downey, Atlanta Journal-Costitution blogs, Feb. 23, 2011
<citing Michael Moore, a professor at Georgia Southern University:>
Only five states do not have collective bargaining for educators and have deemed it illegal.
Those states and their ACT/SAT rankings are as follows:
South Carolina – 50th
North Carolina – 49th
Georgia – 48th
Texas – 47th
Virginia – 44th
If you are wondering, Wisconsin, with its collective bargaining for teachers, is ranked 2nd in the country.
Adam Weinstein, Mother Jones blogs, Feb. 23, 2011
The Buffalo Beast site, which organized the prank, is down, but you can hear the call <here--bottom of page.>
James Hamilton (Univ.Calif., San Diego,) here at roubini.com, Feb. 16, 2011
<assumes excess capacity, which describes the U.S. currently>
“...for a given improvement in the budget balance, a tax rate increase will have a smaller negative impact on output than a given cut in government spending on goods and services....”
Menzie Chinn, econbrowser, Feb. 17, 2011
“Recently, Speaker of the House John Boehner asserted: ‘...the federal government has added 200,000 new federal jobs since President Obama took office....’”
“...it is interesting to observe that employment in the public sector is now below what it was at the beginning of the last recession, in 2007M12....”
“...Aggregate government consumption and investment has only risen by 5% relative to 2007Q3.”
Menzie Chinn, by way of roubini.com, Feb. 17, 2011
Using the March 2010 CPS data, regression analysis controlling demographic characteristics (full-time, education, years of economic experience, gender, race, citizenship, and organizational size) confirms that total hourly compensation for Wisconsin public sector workers is 4.8% lower than for private sector
RobertReich.org, Feb. 4, 2011
Catherine Dodge and Brian Faler, Bloomberg, Feb. 10, 2011
linking from Prof. Paul Krugman’s personal blog to NYTimes.com, Jan. 27, 2011
<takes to task Rep. Paul Ryan’s GOP redux of Europe being socially spendthrift, inadequately
enterprising, ostensibly pitfalls the U.S. should avoid; Krugman:>
American conservatives have long had their own private Europe of the imagination — a place of economic stagnation and terrible health care, a collapsing society groaning under the weight of Big Government. The fact that Europe isn’t actually like that — did you know that adults in their prime working years are more likely to be employed in Europe than they are in the United States? — hasn’t deterred them. So we shouldn’t be surprised by similar tall tales about European debt problems....
Let’s talk about what really happened in Ireland and Britain.
On the eve of the financial crisis, conservatives had nothing but praise for Ireland, a low-tax, low-spending country by European standards. The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom ranked it above every other Western nation. In 2006, George Osborne, now Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, declared Ireland “a shining example of the art of the possible in long-term economic policy making.” And the truth was that in 2006-2007 Ireland was running a budget surplus, and had one of the lowest debt levels in the advanced world.
So what went wrong? The answer is: out-of-control banks; Irish banks ran wild during the good years, creating a huge property bubble. When the bubble burst, revenue collapsed, causing the deficit to surge, while public debt exploded because the government ended up taking over bank debts. And harsh spending cuts, while they have led to huge job losses, have failed to restore confidence....”
<British non-confirmation follows, as does:>
“... the revelation that he <Ryan> literally doesn’t know the first thing about the debt crises currently in progress is, as I said, interesting — and not in a good way....”
Robert Pollin and Jeffrey Thompson, TheNation, Feb. 16, 2011
Why Do "Free Traders" Never Talk About Free Trade When the Losers Are Likely to Be People Like Them?
Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research, Feb. 19, 2011
Dean Baker, CEPR by way of businessinsider.com, Feb. 19, 2011
Arabianmoney.net, Feb. 10, 2011
EverNewEcoN: Actually, Mr. Bernanke has clearly wanted a steepened yield curve, and
may already be successful in obtaining that.
EverNewEcoN, nonetheless, believes there should have been greater fiscal stimulus ( view
at least traditionally associated with Christina Romer) but otherwise the Fed’s
monetary policy has been substantially “pushing on a string,” absent help for the middle class,
in support of ill-led banks in fact at the expense of those who made good decisions, simply
responsible decisions, plus retirees particularly.
The number of banks at risk of failing made up nearly 12 percent of all federally insured banks in the final three months of 2010, the highest level in 18 years
“...Only a small fraction of the 7,657 federally insured banks about 1.4 percent with assets of more than $10 billion are driving the bulk of the earnings growth. They are the largest banks, including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
The big banks accounted for about $20.6 billion of the industry earnings of $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter....”
John M. Mason, at iStockAnalyst.com, Feb. 8, 2011
“...In my mind, not only are bankers attempting to fool the regulators and the investment community…they are trying as hard as they can to fool themselves....”
John M. Mason, Maseportfolio.blogspot.com, Feb. 9, 2011
Dean Baker, CEPR by way of businessinsider.com, Feb. 17, 2011
Assoc.Press, by way of yahoo.com, Feb. 4, 2011
“...German and French officials indicate the pact could include calls for putting debt limits in national constitutions, raising retirement ages to match increased life expectancy, and getting rid of salary increases tied to inflation.
They also want countries to set up orderly ways to handle bank failures and agree on a common base for figuring corporate taxation....”
scarecrow, firedoglake.com, Jan. 22, 2011
Iris J. Lav and Elizabeth McNichol, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 1/20/2011
Mary Williams Walsh, NYTimes.com, Jan. 20, 2011
"The FCC and the Department of Justice have signed off on the Comcast/NBC merger, paving the way for a single enormous media conglomerate to obtain unprecedented control over the flow of information in our country.I’ll be candid with you: This is an awful development for those of us who care about media consolidation. It will restrict your freedom of choice and raise your cable and Internet bills. And it could pave the way for even more media mergers and even less room for independent voices in the media.But the fight’s not over. We’re building a grassroots movement to stand up to the special interests and stand up for middle class consumers. And every time an American learns more about what’s at stake in this fight, our movement grows stronger."
Comstock Partners, Feb. 10, 2011
Paula Duffy, Huliq.com, Jan. 12, 2011
“...At the same time as it is taking small steps in the U.S., China has issued stricter regulations on Hong Kong banks who would like to trade on the yuan in foreign exchange markets. Financial market managers understand that the Chinese are skittish about speculation in its currency which could prove disruptive to the country's economic growth....”
William Horobin, WSJ, Feb. 7, 2011
Reuters, by way of CNBC, Jan. 7, 2011
Sarah Butcher, eFinancialCareers.lu, Dec. 2, 2009
Brian Baxter, TheAmericanLawyer, by way of Law.com
(The Legal Intelligencer,) designated publ. date: Jan. 21, 2011
Jon Walker, Firedoglake.com, Dec. 15, 2010
Agence France-Presse by way of France24.com, Dec. 21, 2010
U.S. Public Broadcasting System
EverNewEcoN: Long ago achieved its directive but then started to amaze.
TheEdShow, Dec. 20, 2010
Lauren Morello and ClimateWire,
ScientificAmerican.com, Oct. 22, 2010
Robert Reich, robertreich.org, Dec. 11, 2010
EverNewEcoN: Excerpts not in Prof. Reich’s original narrative order so that
the portions alone will best preserve the message.
Jason Linkins, Huffingtonpost.com, Dec. 8, 2010
James Pethokoukis, blog.reuters.com, Dec. 7, 2010
Lucia Graves,Huffingtonpost.com, Dec. 7, 2010
Paul Krugman, NY Times Op-Ed, Dec. 7, 2010
“...we have the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts. As I pointed out yesterday <linked at source,> the CBO estimated that such an extension would reduce unemployment relative to what it would have been otherwise by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points in 2011, twice that in 2012.
To this, the deal added $120 billion in a payroll tax cut; $56 billion in extended unemployment benefits; about $40 billion in extension of other tax credit. Also, expensing of business investment.
I’d discount the last item: we’re awash in excess capacity, and likely to stay that way for years, so I don’t expect business investment to be noticeably affected by tax breaks that give an incentive to move spending up in time. The rest is about $220 billion, or about 0.75 percent of GDP over the two-year period. What’s the multiplier on that? Pretty high on UI, which will get spent; less on the rest. Overall, probably less than 1. So let’s say that this raises GDP by 0.7 percent relative to otherwise; rule of thumb is that one point on GDP is half a point on unemployment, so add 0.35 points to the CBO numbers....”
Millions of new jobs? Millions? Not by my arithmetic.
So, was this worth it? I’d still say no...
It still greatly increases the chances of the Bush tax cuts being made permanent — especially because the front-loading of the stimulative stuff actually worsens Obama’s 2012 electoral prospects....”
Doug Short, DShort.com, Dec. 6, 2010
EverNewEcoN: This article implies that among the most impacted by the (supposed)
concomitant inflation from Mr. Bernanke's
virtually 0% reserves ($US Trillions) extended to the banks whose managements
acted stupidly, irresponsibly and /or shadily, and his preferred liquidity trap
policy, will be retirees, often dependent on tax-locked income contracts.
Mr. Bernanke has bailed out the wrongdoers,
bad decision makers on the backs of retirees and those
who made good decisions (who subsidize the
nominal rates extended the banks receiving the
$US Trillions in reserves)
EverNewEcoN: Windfall Profits Tax Anyone?
Joe Klein, Huffingtonpost.com, Nov. 26, 2010, (orig., Time, Nov. 24, 2010)
“But I think we'd learn more if we took a look at one of my goofs: I supported George W. Bush's idea of partially privatizing Social Security, which he tried to enact after he was re-elected in 2004. This was a close call for me at the time; it seems positively idiotic now that we've experienced the Great Recession -- and the idea of private investment has finally regained proper perspective. Investment is about risk; Social Security is about certainty...”
(VIDEO:) Eric Kingson, Prof., Syracuse Univ., Social Security Works, and David John, Heritage Foundation, CNBC, Nov. 30, 2010
Raise the Payment Income Level Cap? Cut the COLA? Cut Benefits? Raise Retirement Age? Privatize?
Damien Hoffman, wallstcheatsheet.com, Nov. 5, 2010
<Matt Taibbi interviewed:> “...The Grifters have been getting people to support Wall Street’s political agenda by seducing them with a [Ann] Randian and pseudo-libertarian ideology. It’s always been around, but it’s just reaching a fever pitch now. And it’s the only way ordinary people can be convinced to endorse a deregulatory agenda....”)
Ben Bernake’s: Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen
Paul Krugman, New York Times, Feb. 28, 2010
Gregor MacDonald, Gregor.us, Nov. 23, 2010
“...As previous readers of this blog understand, it’s useful to look at the car
dependent regions of southern California
as they are emblematic of the state’s post peak-oil, economic breakdown. After all the food stamp program is
really a food and energy program, which frees up household cash for gasoline....”
EverNewEcoN: This is a replay of how the National Highway Users’ Committee’s campaign
to rip out mass transit systems contributed to the Depression of the ‘30’s, except today the
threatened repeal of, or denial of funding of, “ObamaCare” has a parallel effect, additionally.
The chasing away of migrant workers also contributes to the current challenge.
from nasdaq.com, by way of DowJonesNewswires, reportedly from AgenceFrance-Presse 11/11/2010
SEOUL (AFP)--Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Thursday the world economy was headed for "bankruptcy" unless rich nations raise consumer demand rather than relying on exports to power recovery.
‘If they don't consume, and they just bet on exports, the world will go into bankruptcy,’ he told reporters as leaders at the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations headed into a two-day summit in the South Korean capital.
David Dayen, columnist, Firedoglake(blog,) Nov. 11, 2010
Robert Reich.org, Oct. 29, 2010
“...GE’s Mr. Immelt may be unhappy with President Obama, but he’ll be far unhappier if the tea party takes over the GOP. Tom Borelli, director of the Free Enterprise Project of the National Center for Public Policy Research, a conservative think tank and vocal supporter of the tea party movement, has demanded Mr. Immelt’s resignation, calling GE an “opportunistic parasite feeding on the expansion of government.” Among Mr. Immelt’s alleged sins: taking federal subsidies for clean energy. In a press release last week, the National Center for Public Policy Research stated clearly: “Liberal CEOs are the next target for tea party activism....”
Robert Reich, RobertReich.org, Nov. 5, 2010
EverNewEcoN: When you play a board game,
and a couple players rig the game,
and then they collect most the properties and money, the game is over.
Nouriel Roubini, Forbes, March 5, 2009
Lauren Morello and ClimateWire,
ScientificAmerican.com, Oct. 22, 2010
The seeming paradox of Arctic warmth sending blizzards to mid-latitudes has occurred just three times in the past 160 years, including last year. But it is likely to become more common as polar sea ice shrinks, <NOAA oceanographer Jim> Overland said. That's due in part to a powerful feedback loop scientists call "polar amplification." Warmer Arctic springs and summers increase
the amount of sea ice that melts each summer, leaving huge swaths of dark ocean water that trap heat. That warmth cycles back into the atmosphere each fall, when the amount of sunlight dips and sea ice re-forms. Meanwhile, Greenland's melting accelerates sea level rise
That's driving Arctic ocean and land temperatures higher, which scientists believe helped cause the unusual weather patterns observed in mid-latitudes last winter.
Meanwhile, historic warming observed in Greenland this year has implications for sea level rise, said Jason Box, an Ohio State University glaciologist who also worked on the new report.
0 rates like pushing on a string; balance sheet repair taking priority over
low interest rate-induced investment opportunity; It was the Japanese Government's
lack of consistency in its commitment to
stimulus that greatly extended the severe
(review by economicsnetwork (International Review of Economics Education))
George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press, 2009.
As they outline flaws in widely accepted economic theories, it could seem that the
authors are arguing against capitalism. However, they make it clear in the book that
they are against unfettered capitalism. Like John Maynard Keynes, they recommend
government involvement in the economy. Specifically, they state that government
should ‘set the conditions in which our animal spirits can be harnessed creatively to
serve the greater good’ (p. 173).
RAVI BATRA was first to empirically correlate excessive concentration of wealth and depressions per se. He also posited that its method of operation in bringing about depressions is the wealthy rely on increasingly less qualified borrowers so as to maintain high rates of return on savings.
"'We saw an extension of credit to a much deeper socioeconomic level, and they got access to the same credit instruments as middle-class and mainstream Americans," says Ronald Mann, a Columbia University law professor....'Wall Street Journal,Oct. 10, 2009 "The 'Democratization of...
believed within context--a commentary on facts
"...The hypothesis we propose is that a financial crisis that originates in consumer debt, especially consumer debt concentrated at the low end of the wealth and income distribution, can be transmitted quickly and forcefully into the financial system. It appears that we're witnessing the second great consumer debt crash, the end of a massive consumption binge...."
Steven Gjerstad, Vernon L. Smith, Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2009
From Bubble to Depression?
Mr. Gjerstad is a visiting research associate at Chapman University. Mr. Smith is a professor of economics at Chapman University and the 2002 Nobel Laureate in Economics.
Robert Reich, RobertReich.org, Aug. 2, 2010
Robert Reich, RobertReich.org, Oct. 18, 2010
Laura d'Andrea Tyson
November 1, 2004
"A recent study by the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office confirms that the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts have disproportionately benefited the wealthiest households. The tax cuts have boosted the after tax incomes of the top 1% of households, with average incomes in excess of $1,000,000, by 10% -- compared with a 2.3% increase for middle-income families with average incomes of $57,000 and a 1.6% increase for the bottom 20% of families, with average incomes of less than $17,000. The tax cuts for millionaires alone have reduced government revenues by $90 billion a year, more than the lost revenues from tax cuts for the 80% of families making less than $100,000. Ninety billion dollars a year is more than enough to pay for the comprehensive health-care plan proposed by John Kerry..."
(EverNewEcoN: mostly borrowed from abroad)
One factor is common globally: the central role of stimulus. Most governments have been counting
on stimulus to resuscitate their economies. As I have argued many times before, an economy tends
to have a major misalignment of supply and demand after a big bubble phase.
An adjustment takes time.
Trying to regenerate high growth through stimulus, rather than patiently
waiting for a market realignment, leads to rising inflation rates. When inflation sparks panic, rapid
tightening becomes inevitable. And that triggers another crisis. I'm afraid this is exactly what's in store for 2012.
Charles High Smith, oftwominds.com, Oct. 13, 2010
"...Michael Lewis documents this runaway feedback loop of cultural self-destruction in a Vanity Fair article on Greece: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds...."
"...<A>s I noted yesterday in Imagining A Middle Class Does Not Create One, the open hatred of the productive private-sector class for their State/Elite Overlords may be reaching positive-feedback status, and thus diverting or distracting this rancorous understanding of how things really work is becoming more difficult. "...These two runaway feedback loops--the self-reinforcing concentration of wealth/power and the erosion of trust, honesty and accountability in a culture of entitlement and gaming-the-system--are also reinforcing each other. The more that citizens see the Power Elites getting away with financial thievery, the greater their own temptation to sell their own soul for a piece of the swag. That's how you get stories like this: Gonzalo Lira On The Coming Middle-Class Anarchy (Zero Hedge) Runaway feedback loops do not end well. As they gather momentum, then the unpredictability of the system also rises quickly. Those claiming that it will all pan out just fine cannot know that; their confidence/faith is itself a higher-order deception/delusion. We have a living example of what happens when these runaway feedback loops finally smack into reality: Greece."
Jeff Carter, Points and Figures, writing at businessinsider.com, Oct. 8, 2010
Paul Krugman, NY Times, Sept. 5, 2010
"...The story of 1937, of F.D.R.’s disastrous decision to heed those who said that it was time to slash the deficit, is well known. What’s
less well known is the extent to which the public drew the wrong conclusions from the recession that followed: far from calling for a
resumption of New Deal programs, voters lost faith in fiscal expansion.
Consider Gallup polling from March 1938. Asked whether government spending should be increased to fight the slump, 63 percent of those
polled said no. Asked whether it would be better to increase spending or to cut business taxes, only 15 percent favored spending; 63
percent favored tax cuts. And the 1938 election was a disaster for the Democrats, who lost 70 seats in the House and seven in the Senate...."
EverNewEcoN: The tax cuts financed from abroad and benefiting primarily the wealthiest
Americans were essentially already paid for by everyone else. Mr. Obama essentially
simply seeks a partial ending of that.
Robert Reich, Robertreich.org, Sept. 3, 2010
Joe Weisenthal, businessinsider.com, Oct. 5, 2010
Rising interest rates rapidly bloat the Federal Reserve Bank's
liabilities, that phenomenon having taken on a new
dimension with that Bank's purchases of mortgage backed securities; they
drop the economic value of real estate (opportunity cost of ownership
is the interest income surrendered when cash is committed to buy/mortgage
cost simultaneously rising;) thirdly: U.S. debt service rises.
But, Mr. Obama inherited the freefall, comatose banks, lack of
financial wiggle room.
Gina Sanchez and Christian Menegatti by way of Roubini.com, Sept. 2, 2010
Elyse Siegel, Huffingtonpost.com, Aug. 10, 2010
Robert Reich, RobertReich.org, Aug. 8, 2010
"...The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center...Its numbers
indicate that the Ryan plan would reduce revenue
by almost $4 trillion over the next decade. If you
add these revenue losses to the numbers The <Washington> Post cites, you get a much larger
deficit in 2020, roughly $1.3 trillion.And that’s about
the same as the budget office’s estimate of the 2020 deficit under the Obama administration’s plans. That is,
Mr. Ryan may speak about the deficit in apocalyptic
terms, but even if you believe that his proposed
spending cuts are feasible — which you shouldn’t —
the Roadmap wouldn’t
reduce the deficit. All it would do is cut benefits for
the middle class while slashing taxes on the rich.
assembled by: Joe Weisenthal, businessinsider.com,
Jun. 28, 2010
Joe Weisenthal, businessinsider.com, Aug. 8, 2010
EverNewEcoN's intuitive response: cumulative attrition of savings
(though other inflationary dynamics may come to bear)
What’s the evidence for the belief that fiscal contraction is actually expansionary,
because it improves confidence? (By the way, this is precisely the doctrine
expounded by Herbert Hoover in 1932.)
Amanda Gengler, Money, June 7, 2010, p. 90; money.cnn.com
David Dayen, Firedoglake.com, July 28, 2010
"...At some point, corporations have to give the people some money so they can buy their wares...."
EverNewEcoN: health risk factor? Can't move till reliable high risk pool
Sen. Ted Kaufman, Huffingtonpost.com, July 27, 2010
Robert Creamer, Huffingtonpost.com, July 28, 2010
David Evans, Bloomberg, July 28, 2010
Why Not Ask About Mr. Williams about
Privatizing the Profits, Socializing the Costs?
Mr. Williams also seems to shift some cost blame to
providers. EverNewEcoN desires for providers to be
rewarded for achieving and providing brilliant skills
but feels it is to be appreciated that the demagogues
have been demagogueing end of life heroics to the
detriment of all but the most desparately and
uncomfortably terminal patients, who absorb a
vastly disproportionate part of health costs.
In Your 50's? Presenting Any Health Risk?
Why You're Still At Risk Of Being Shaken
Down For Years To Come
"...In a recent column for the Hartford Courant,
Lieberman cited the rising costs of Medicare
to justify his opposition to expanding the government's
role in health care. But in 2000, when he was Al Gore's
running mate, Lieberman campaigned on a platform of
offering everyone 55 and older an option to "buy-in"
to Medicare. That proposal—which was a central part
of the Gore-Lieberman campaign's health care plan—
essentially would have created a robust public option
for people aged 55 to 65...."
Bill Cummings, Newstimes.com, Dec. 19, 2010
Absent a modification of the election process,
though, it's hard imagining a winning Connecticut
Senatorial candidate not being influenced by the
Yi Wen, Assistant Vice President and Economist,
Economic Synopses, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
Robert Reich, RobertReich.org, June 21, 2010
Economist, June 24, 2010
"...a sharp appreciation of the yuan might result in a surge in Chinese lay-offs, not a boom in Chinese consumption.Reforms to tackle the root causes of excess saving in China are therefore needed as part of a lasting solution to global imbalances. That means more liberalisation to make it easier for small firms in labour-intensive services to challenge cosseted state-backed firms; it means better corporate governance to help unlock the cash hoarded by state-owned enterprises and spread it around the economy; and it requires a wider social-security net to persuade Chinese householders that they need not insure themselves against every catastrophe. A stronger currency is a handmaiden to these changes. But it cannot do all the work of transforming China’s economy"
Olivier Blanchard: Chief economist, IMF, on leave from MIT
Carlo Cottarellil: Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
28 June 2010
From Contributor to firedoglake.com, June 18, 2010
Laura d'Andrea Tyson, 1/17/2005
"...The net present value of the shortfal
in revenues over the next 75 years is
$3.7 trillion, only about one-third of the
net present value of the Bush tax cuts
of 2001 and 2003 and about 0.7% of
gross domestic product projected for
the same period...."
Amcham Belgium, Jan 26, 2010
In order to maintain its position as an attractive country to do business
and to attract new investors Belgium
needs to, firstly, increase the older population’s activity rate which will
make a valuable contribution to
Belgium’s social and economic future. It’s necessary to modify certain schemes so that for a 55 year old it
would be more interesting to continue working. AmCham proposed the
following actions, increase early
retirement age, modify pre-pension schemes and encourage
Gregory White and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock (businessinsider.com,) Jun. 28, 2010
The Proposed Orderly Liquidation Fund
Jennifer S. Taub's "It’s Not a Bailout — It’s a Funeral,"
Mike Konczal, newdeal2.0.com, Jun. 18, 2010
Paul Krugman, NY Times, March 17, 2008
And Then It Was Said, "Ben Sterilizes."
(U.S.: among least equally distributed)
Henry C.K. Liu, newdeal20.org, June 9, 2010
Henry C.K. Liu, henryckliu.com,
appearing roughly June, 2010
(U.S.: among highest linkages)
Debra Haight, HeraldPalladium.com, June 12, 2010
NILES - A woman suffering from severe shoulder pain and without any health
insurance shot herself in the
upper arm Thursday so she could get emergency room care.
Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust Daily Global Commentary, June 7, 2010
"...real GDP of the U.S. economy had risen 25% by the end of the expansion which stretched from March 1991 to March 2001, while the U.S. economy recorded a growth of 18% between the trough and peak of the expansion during November 2001 and December 2007. In other words, economic growth registered during the Bush-II period is roughly 72% of the GDP gain recorded after the Clinton tax increases. ..."
(Includes: Many Tourists Already Cancelling
Trips to Florida's Emerald, Gulf Coasts, Let
Alone to La's, Ala's, Miss's shores.)
C-SPAN, May 10, 2010
government - private sector balance and synbiosis
(EverNewEcoN's paraphrase;) cites: "an estimated 720,000 clean energy jobs that will be created by 2012
from tax credits and loan guarantees in the economic stimulus law." "Carnegie Mellon Economist Allan Meltzer responded to the President’s speech: 'the huge stimulus spending has done little to reduce unemployment.
Long-term unemployment has never
been higher in the past 60 years.'" EverNewEcoN: SEE:
Robert Reich by way of businessinsider.com,
May 28, 2010
Paul Krugman, NY Times, March 11, 2010
Behind all that upbeat data and macroeconomic noise
are pricing and inflation facts pointing to another crisis in 2012
Andy Xie, Caing.com, May 10, 2010
EverNewEcoN: I recommend reading the full article.
Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability.
Rural Migration News, U.Calif.,Davis, Jan., 2006
directive credit to
EverNewEcoN: Give $Trillions in tax breaks
to the wealthiest
persons, on the U.S.' part,
all borrowed from abroad, wage wars, and adopt a drug benefit program wherein the Government
is prohibited from seeking competitive bids, and
this is what you can
Yalman Onaran, Simon Clark, Joseph Heaven,
BusinessWeek.com, May 27, 2010
"Higher capital requirements may cut bank
profits, but they will help the
system withstand the withering losses
that led to the credit crisis."
verNewEcoN highly recommends reading the entire article--quick view of banking valuations, constraints, the Federal Reserves traditional
expanded businesses, and how its current
constraints may impact future policy. But See:
"...Over half of its <Federal Reserve Bank's> outstanding loans and other asset holdings have a maturity of over one year, and over 32% have a maturity of five years or more. This means that the durations of the Fed’s assets have increased substantially during the crisis period and are likely to increase even more as its mortgage-related holdings continue to expand....
In particular, the Fed’s liabilities are now nearly half overnight reserve deposits held by member banks and half in Federal Reserve Notes. Reserve deposits have a near-zero duration, while Federal Reserve Notes have nearly an infinite duration. Thus the Fed’s liability structure is a “barbell” shape whose average portfolio duration has shortened significantly at the same time the duration of its assets has increased...."
"... if one assumed an average asset duration of five years and that duration of its liabilities shrank as low as eight years, then back-of-the-envelope calculations using McCauley duration suggest that a 1% increase in interest rates would reduce the Fed’s capital by 38% if assets were marked to market. 2 If the Fed were a bank, this would be sufficient to trigger liquidation by the FDIC...."
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, telegraph.co.uk, May 26, 2010
(unequal information awareness, oversized doubts, broken system components, etc. interfere with investing for greatest returns)
Joe Weisenthal and Gregory White, businessinsider.com, May. 6, 2010
EverNewEcoN (U.S. parallel:)
Perhaps the banks, especially the regionals, should be allowed a special accounting sabbatical based on mortgages emanating from one berzerk time frame. The alternative may be the Obama Administration's seeing the weak euro and deciding to keep throwing more money after bad when those who sold at the top
are still just waiting for a fair return on the equity out and a true clearing level that accounts for the hidden delinquencies.
Why 2010 could mark the death of the global
trade system as we know it.
Narayana Kocherlakota, President,
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank,
May 10, 2010, C-SPAN
from Kevin F. Jursinski (Attorney, Real Estate Specialist)
republished, Florida Bar Journal, June, 2010
Samer al-Rjoub, Economics, The Hashemite Univ., Jordan
Clamor over emerging market surpluses and China's exchange rate conveniently shucks off the hugely dominant effect of oil prices
Jonathon Anderson, Caixin, March 31, 2010
New York Times, April 5, 2010
"...For every $100 the company spends on retiree drug benefits, Medicare sends it a subsidy payment of $28. On top of that, the companies got a rare double tax break. The $28 subsidy is tax-free, and the company was allowed to deduct the entire $100 as a business expense.
The new health care reform law has left the 28 percent subsidy intact and continued to exempt it from taxation. But companies will no longer be allowed to deduct the subsidy as if it were an expenditure of their own...."
The Economist, April 29, 2010 (pp.59-60)
"""ON A recent trip to America, Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, could not resist the temptation to needle his hosts....
Observing that America is the only wealthy country to lack universal health coverage, Mr Sarkozy sniffed: 'Welcome to the club of states who don’t turn their back on the sick and the poor.'
Europeans have long thumbed their noses at America’s bloated health-care system. It is true that parts of it are convoluted, cruel and much too costly....
For the most part, the American health system is dominated by cream-skimming health insurers and the myriad “fee for service” providers they do business with, which drive up costs by charging high prices for piece work. KP’s business model integrates fixed-price health insurance with treatment at its own hospitals and clinics. This has led to big efficiency gains, making KP one of the cheapest health-care providers in most of the regional markets in which it competes. Thanks to Mr Obama’s reforms, over 30m Americans will enter the health-insurance market over the next few years—and KP’s low prices should make it a big beneficiary.
Moreover, KP’s medical results are as good as its financial ones. By many clinical measurements, it is the best-performing health-care outfit in the regions it covers...."
AFP (French Press Agency,
Reporting fr Moscow,) by way of
yahoo.com, July 16, 2010
Death toll expected to rise as India faces
record temperatures of up to 122F in hottest summer on record
Jason Burke, guardian.co.uk, May 30, 2010
Allan H. Meltzer, this from American Enterprise Institute, Oct. 23, 2009
RobertReich.org, April 4, 2010
Courtney Burke, Lynn Blewett, healthaffairs.org, March 19, 2010
eligibility is broader...; adequately funded...; premiums are low...; ...administration.... The program is a not-for-profit corporation governed by a board of directors and regulated by the Minnesota Department of Commerce...
Gregory White, businessinsider.com, Mar. 17, 2010
(work of Jane V. Hall and Victor Brajer, Calif.State Univ., Fullerton, Nov. 12, 2008)
Paul Krugman, New York Times, Mar. 27, 2010
David M. Cutler, Harvard Economics Prof., Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2010
<Key Points Excerpted:>
• Form insurance exchanges.
• Reduce excessive prices
• Moving to value-based payment in Medicare.
• Tax generous insurance plans.
• Empower an independent Medicare advisory board.
• Combat Medicare fraud and abuse.
• Malpractice reform
• Invest in information technology.
• Create a public option.
So reform gets full credit on six of the 10 ideas, partial credit on three others, and no credit on one. The area of no credit (a public option) is because Republicans opposed the idea
RobertReich.org, April 9, 2010
Martin Feldstein, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 19, 2010, A13
David Whelan, Forbes, Nov. 2, 2009, p. 32
(layoffs mean customers replaced with COBRA customers / adverse selection)
David Cay Johnston, for taxanalysts.
(factual claims not independently verified)
businessinsider.com, March 5, 2010
The Struggle of he / she Pre-Medicare
Eligible, With Existing Risk, Sharecroppers
to the Company Already Dictating Its
Premium, Pulls On Recovery, Including
In Real Estate, I believe aggravating
and extending this. This runs perfectly
parallel to the Great Depression likely having
been exacerbated in part by the
ripping out of mass transit systems
during the 1930's already.
Jared Bernstein, Chief Economic Advisor to Vice President Biden, March 02, 2010
This morning, economist Edward Glaeser <Harvard Prof.--Edward L. Glaeser's blog is straightforward--see here> wrote a blog post over at the NYT charging that Recovery Act spending isn’t going where it’s needed most. Based on a subset of Recovery Act spending, he claims that per capita spending in a state is actually negatively correlated with the state’s unemployment rate – in other words, the higher the unemployment rate in the state, the less money it gets per person.
He’s wrong about that. Not only does he leave out a major chunk of Recovery Act spending, but the chunk he leaves out includes the programs that are targeted most directly at unemployment. When you put those data back in, as we do below, you get a correct sense of the extent to which the Act is effectively targeting people and places that need help.
Glaeser’s blog post is based on data reported by direct recipients of Recovery Act, which only covers certain programs—those in which the Recovery Act makes a grant or gives a contract or loan to an entity that will perform a project, like fixing a bridge.
But the chunk he leaves out includes payments that go straight to individuals in need. Since his targeting measure is unemployment, the most important omission here is the increased Unemployment Insurance payments that the Recovery Act provided – tens of billions of dollars of aid that have provided a crucial lifeline to more than 20 million unemployed workers during this downturn.
He also leaves out major aid to states through the Medicaid system, which has helped prevent layoffs of teachers and other public servants across the country – and which, by the way, was distributed based on a formula that explicitly considers a state’s unemployment rate (such data are publicly available here).
Lo and behold, when you actually look at the entire Recovery Act, the negative correlation Professor Glaeser complains about disappears. This is, of course, no surprise – if you leave out the Recovery Act programs that are targeted at economic hardship, the Recovery Act will look to be poorly targeted. And by the way, these programs account for over $120 billion in funds put to work so far, so we’re not talking small change here.
Here is the very different picture you get when you look at these targeted programs – expanded unemployment insurance, aid to states through the Medicaid system, food stamps, emergency grants to the Temporary Assistance for Needy family system, job training, and youth summer employment:
And then there’s another side of this story. As the figure shows, the programs that are targeted at unemployment are doing their job. But not every program in the Recovery Act is intended to send money the states with the highest unemployment rates.
In fact, that’s why the package is called the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act – it’s designed not just to get aid to those who need it most, but to make investments that will help lay the foundation for robust, sustainable growth in the future.
The Recovery Act cannot meet the vision of the President and Vice President if we were to limit it solely to projects in states with higher than average unemployment. Throughout the country, it must make key investments in infrastructure, including not just roads and bridges but transit, high-speed rail, broadband, clean energy, and the smart grid. And even when it comes to good, old-fashioned roads and bridges, those investments have to be made where they’re needed, not just wherever unemployment is the highest.
Glaeser raises perfectly valid and important points about making sure our investment decisions are smart ones, not driven by politics or outdated formulas. And that’s what we’re trying to do here. When it comes to both recovery and reinvestment, the Act is hitting the target.
though not quite the controlling cartel as in health insurance,
the property insurance industry requires better policing:
EverNewEcoN :SPECIFIC CLAIMS NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED:
The Insurance Hoax
Paul Krugman, NY Times, Feb. 20, 2010, by way of Businessinsider.com
soldatthetop, seekingalpha.com, Feb. 25, 2010
David Goldman, seekingalpha.com, Feb. 26, 2010
Vincent Fernando, Feb. 15, 2010, BusinessInsider.com
Lehman & Repo 105 = Goldman & Greece: The Global Finance System Has Irreversibly Failed
David Caploe, Economywatch.com, March 15, 2010
The Valukas Report on the Lehman collapse and e-discovery: Stratify and CaseLogistix win the day [UPDATED]at JD Supra, by way of the Posse List, March 14, 2010
The Price of Rising Seas
Jeremy Van Loon and Robert Dieterich, Bloomberg Markets, March, 2010, p.20
"The insurance industry is beginning to examine the value of assets
that may be affected as coasts are inundated."
U.K. Financial Services Agency, 11/19/2009