research

Senior Economist (Development Research Group, World Bank)

research interests: trade policy, labor mobility, migration, and quantitative methods

fields:  international trade and development economics

recent: trade policy simulator

Check our dashboards to solve a full quantitative trade model in real time on the server. Plug a tariff change or a trade cost scenario to see the impact on real disposable income, GDP, exports and imports globally:

Trade Policy Simulator: Tariffs
https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2025/12/15/trade-simulator-tariffs

Trade Policy Simulator: Trade Costs
https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2025/12/15/trade-simulator-trade-costs

GitHub page: https://github.com/eartuc/tradeguide (Handcrafted non-slop code available in Python, Julia, Matlab, and R)

Working paper: Artuc and Ortega (2026). "International Trade Policy and Quantitative Models: A Practitioner’s Guide," World Bank PRWP 11347.

recent: the true cost of war

How to calculate welfare impact of big shocks from migration flows?

GitHub page: https://github.com/eartuc/true_cost_of_war

Paper: Artuc Gomez-Parra and Onder (2026). "True Cost of War: The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine," Review of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming)

update: new code for Artuc, Chaudhuri and McLaren (2010)

Updated solution code for an old paper. Our original code was inefficient and unorganized (too many loops and functions). Here is a linear, simple and fast code in Julia, Python and Matlab.

GitHub page: https://github.com/eartuc/acm

selected columns and blogs

• Responding to the Global Shock from the War in the Middle East, 

(joint with Do, Rijkers, Mattoo,  et al.), 2026

• The Unequal Costs of a Global Trade Disruption, 

(joint with J. Ortega and C. Rivas), 2026

• Distributional Effects of International Trade: Misconceptions about Losses and Gains, 2021 

• The Butterfly Effect of Industrial Policy in Brazil

(joint with Daria Taglioni), 2025

• Estimating the True Cost of War: The conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-2019) [Vox EU]

(joint with Nicolas Gomez-Parra and Harun Onder), 2022

•  War-induced Food Price Inflation Imperils the Poor [Vox EU]

(joint with Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), 2022

• Inequality and Trade: Simulation Evidence for 54 Developing Nations [Vox EU]

(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), 2020

•  Do Robots Threaten North-South Trade and Welfare? [Vox Dev]

(joint with Paulo Bastos and Bob Rijkers), 2019

papers

work in progress or very recent

• Crops, Conflict and Climate Change  

(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), revision requested by AEJ: Macroeconomics, 2026

• Trade, Outsourcing and the Environment

(joint with Konstantin Sommer), 2024

• Can the Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation and the Pattern of Industrialization 

(joint with I. Leunga, A. Barattieri, A. Mattoo), 2026

• Trade Fragmentation, Growth and Volatility {very preliminary}

(joint with Penny Goldberg,  Daniel Lasso and Daria Taglioni), 2026

trade/labor

• Trade, Jobs and Worker Welfare, 

(joint with Paulo Bastos and Eunhee Lee), Journal of International Economics, 2025

• Patterns of Labor Market Adjustment to Trade Shocks with Imperfect Capital Mobility

(joint with Irene Brambilla and Guido Porto),  Economic Journal, 2022

• Trade, Informal Employment and Labor Adjustment Costs

(joint with J. Arias, D. Lederman, and D. Rojas), Journal of Development Economics, 2018

•  Trade Policy and Wage Inequality: A Structural Analysis with Occupational and Sectoral Mobility

(joint with John McLaren),  Journal of International Economics, 2015

• A Mapping of Mobility Costs in the Developing World 

(joint with Daniel Lederman and Guido Porto), Journal of International Economics, 2015

• Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach

(joint with Shubham Chaudhuri and John McLaren), American Economic Review, 2010

• Delay and Dynamics in Labor Market Adjustments 

(joint with Shubham Chaudhuri and John McLaren), Journal of International Economics, 2008

trade/development

• Protectionism, Evasion and Household Welfare: Evidence from Nigeria’s Import Bans 

(joint with Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto and  Bob Rijkers) accepted Journal of Public Economics, 2026

• Robots, Tasks and Trade  [Recipient of Bhagwati Award by JIE]

 (joint with Paulo Bastos and Bob Rijkers), Journal of International Economics, 2023

• Trading-off the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy

(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), Journal of International Economics, 2019

• Household Impacts of Tariffs : Data and Results from Agricultural Trade Protection

(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), World Bank Economic Review, 2021

migration

•  The True Cost of War

(joint with Nicolas Gomez-Parra and Harun Onder) forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics, 2026

• Transit Migration: All Roads Lead to America

(joint with Caglar Ozden) Economic Journal, 2018

• A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: the Role of non-OECD Destinations

(joint with F. Docquier, C. Ozden and C. Parsons) World Development, 2015

macroeconomics 

•  R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

(joint with Panayiotis Pourpourides), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,  2014

• Discount Window Borrowing After 2003: The Explicit Reduction in Implicit Costs

(joint with Selva Demiralp) Journal of Banking and Finance, 2010

quantitative methods

• International Trade Policy and Quantitative Models: A Practitioner’s Guide,

(joint with Johan Ortega) World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2026

• PPML  Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Aggregate Shocks 

World Bank Working Paper #6480, 2013 (This paper develops a new -now old- econometric method we use in other papers)

books 

•  The Inequality Adjusted Gains from Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries,. [amazon link]

(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), 2022  

• Exports to Jobs : Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia, [amazon link]

(joint with Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Raymond Robertson and Daniel Samaan) 2019  [freely available as a pdf from WB]

• The Economics of Hosting Refugees : A Host Community Perspective from Turkana,

(joint with Jennifer Alix-Garcia and Harun Onder), 2017  [freely available as a pdf from WB]

selected chapters and policy work

•  Robots and Trade: Implications for Developing Countries , 

(joint with Paulo Bastos, Alexander Copestake, and Bob Rijkers)  in  "Robots and AI: A New Economic Era" eds.  L.. Ing, G. Grossman, 2023

• Openness and Productivity Reform: Lessons for Middle-Income Economies from Thailand and other ASEAN, 

(joint with Daria Taglioni and Cristina Constantinescu Neagu), World Bank Policy Research WP, 2026

• Protectionism and Gender Inequality in Developing Countries, 

(joint with Nicolas Depetris Chauvin, Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), Journal of Globalization and Development, 2023.

• Provision of Liquidity through the Primary Credit Facility during the Financial Crisis: A Structural Analysis

(joint with Selva Demiralp) New York Fed's Economic Policy Review, 2010

• Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico

(joint with Luc Christiaensen and Hernan Winkler), World Bank Policy Research WP,  2019

• The Rise of China and Latin American Labor Markets,

(joint with Daniel Lederman and Diego Rojas), World Bank Policy Research WP,  2019

• Export Performance and Geography in Croatia 

(joint with Mariana Iootty De Paiva Dias and Florina Pirlea), World Bank Policy Research WP,  2014

work in hiatus

• Some Simple Analytics of Trade and Labor Mobility

(joint with S. Chaudhuri and J. McLaren)