3 - Risk and risk assessment

Risk
is defined as; the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences.

Managing hazard risk needs to focus on building resilience to decrease vulnerability of a community.
People's perception of the risk posed by hazards varies for a variety of reasons and this will affect the way they respond.
Attempts at hazard prediction are a key element of this response.

Syllabus detail: 
Analysis of risk 
  • Examine the relationships between the degree of risk posed by a hazard and the probability of a hazard event occurring, the predicted losses and a community’s preparedness for it. 
  • Discuss the factors that determine an individual’s perception of the risk posed by hazards. 
  • Explain the reasons why individuals and communities often underestimate the probability of hazard events occurring. 

Hazard event prediction
  • Examine the methods used to make estimates (predictions) of the probability (in time and space) of hazard events occurring, and of their potential impact on lives and property. 
  • Discuss these methods by examining case studies relating to two different hazard types.

Case study connections:
For each case studies we need to consider…

What was the perception of risk?
Was the actual risk underestimated?
How did the perception of risk affect the response to the hazard?
Was it possible to predict the occurrence of the disaster?
Was the impact of the disaster greater than was expected?
What methods and equipment are used to monitor, forecast and predict specific hazard types and events?
How effective are these approaches?

Exam style questions: 
Discuss the factors that combine to affect the degree of risk posed by a hazard.
With reference to examples you have studied, explain the people often underestimate the probability of hazard events occurring.
Discuss the reasons why perceptions of hazards will vary from person to person.
Through a comparison of two case studies, consider the extent to which the different hazards are predictable.













4 - Hazard Event Prediction NEW

ĉ
Andrew Woodman,
Feb 5, 2010, 4:07 AM
ĉ
Andrew Woodman,
Feb 5, 2010, 4:06 AM
Ċ
Sean Coffey,
Jan 13, 2012, 5:44 AM
ĉ
Andrew Woodman,
Feb 5, 2010, 4:06 AM